This fall, New England's famous foliage show may not last as long as leaf lovers hope. Experts predict that after a dry summer and erratic rainfall, colors will appear earlier, burn brightly and then fade faster than usual.
Time matters beyond taking Instagram-worthy photos. Every year, millions of visitors flock to New York, Vermont, Massachusetts, New Hampshire and Maine to hike, drive and wander under the changing canopy, bringing in an estimated $8 billion to local economyAccording to the US Forest Service.
But this year, scientists say the iconic spectacle will be less predictable, with sweeping, week-long waves of red, orange and gold replaced by dappled bursts of color.
“Bright, short and early” season
Jim Salge, Yankee Magazine's fall foliage forecaster, predicts the transition period will be “bright, brief and early.” Some leaves are already turning brown and falling off before showing their bright colors.
“While we typically see a wave of turning leaves moving from the north, inland and uphill to the south and coastal areas, this year we are expecting a larger patchwork as stressed trees turn early,” Salge said.
Trees experience “stress” when they don't have enough water, which impairs photosynthesis – the process of converting sunlight into energy. Too much water can smother their roots.
Salge recommends a trip to the White Mountains, which run through New Hampshire and a small part of western Maine, as well as northern Massachusetts, where stressed trees may hold up better than more drought-stricken forests further north.
The color is expected to peak in late September at higher elevations before moving into Vermont, New Hampshire and western Maine in early October, about a week earlier than usual.
“The best thing about New England is that if you miss it, you can always go further south,” he said. “If you come too early, just go north or up the hills into the mountains.”
Hikers can track foliage with tools like Yankee Magazine Peak Foliage Map And I love the New York City Weekly Reports.
Why does the foliage move?
Although climate change In recent decades, as a rule, the fall has been delayed; this year's dry summer is pushing back the timing.
“Ideally, it is beneficial for a forest to have moderate rainfall that is widely distributed throughout the year,” said Mukund Rao, research assistant professor at Columbia University's Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory. “But if you have a big storm, a month without rain, and then another big storm, the water will soak up too quickly.”
Vibrant foliage colors bloom on warm days and cool nights, but warm evenings and stressed trees accelerate leaf drop. Unhealthy or stressed trees tend to have shorter transitions and duller leaves, Rao said. In contrast, trees in urban areas often retain color longer because buildings and sidewalks retain heat and street lights provide additional light.
Other threats include tree fungus caused by heavy spring rains and beech leaf disease, which kills lantern beech trees late in the season.
“We're seeing a lot of invasive insects that are changing our forests, again killing off entire tree species, as well as invasive plants that are disrupting forest regeneration and succession patterns,” Salge said.
Track changes
To make forecasts, Salge relies on weather forecasts and phenological data or tracking seasonal life cycles.
One unusual source: Pancake Polly in Sugar Hill, New Hampshire, which has been tracking native foliage since 1975. His records show that the color peaked for two weeks in late September that year, but in 2024 it shifted to just two days in early October.
The US National Phenology Network also collects and disseminates observations and data throughout the country. Its Nature's Notebook app uses volunteers to record seasonal changes, said Teresa Crimmins, the organization's director. These data have served as the basis for more than 200 scientific studies.
“We have sort of a shared understanding of nature,” Crimmins said. “When it comes to individual species in specific places, there's actually a lot we don't know.”
An updated version of the app, due this spring, will allow users to upload photos even for one-time observations.
“The world needs more people to observe and become citizen scientists,” Salge said. “Their view of the world is data.”
CORRECTION (September 21, 2025, 12:47 p.m. ET): A previous version of this article incorrectly stated the location of the White Mountains. The mountain range runs through New Hampshire and Maine, not Vermont.
