Expert tells farmers to prepare for the worst as virus spreads

The bird flu virus affecting farmer's flocks across the UK could be the most contagious to date, the government's former top expert on avian virology has warned.

Pirbright Institute professor Ian Brown, former director of science at the Animal and Plant Health Agency (APHA), said farmers should be “prepared for the worst”.

As England's national mandatory housing order came into force on Thursday, one free-range egg producer in Wiltshire told the BBC she felt “terrible” bringing her 32,000 hens inside but an outbreak would be “catastrophic”.

The government said the mandatory shelter-in-place order would “reduce infection rates from the high levels we are seeing now.”

This season, which began in October, 26 cases of highly pathogenic avian influenza have been reported. (HPAI) H5N1 on farms across the UK, with 22 in England alone. When an outbreak occurs, entire herds have to be killed.

Professor Brown told the BBC the current virus is “as hyper-infectious as any highly pathogenic bird flu we've ever seen.”

He added that farmers should now “prepare for the worst, I'm afraid”.

“Between 2021 and 2023 we had a very, very serious epidemic with over 350 outbreaks in the UK. This is off the charts,” he explained.

“It's actually very difficult to say what the final size of this outbreak will be, but the early signals are not very good.”

He added that the level of threat meant the poultry industry needed to “batten down the hatches, review its biosecurity and redouble its efforts.”

Sarah Godwin runs the family egg, arable and dairy farm near North Wraxall, Wiltshire, with her husband and brother-in-law.

Its 32,000 laying hens typically spend most of the day outdoors. Now they have to be kept in barns around the clock.

“It's horrible. We would really like them to go away, but it's just a necessary evil because the risk of contracting bird flu is so high and the consequences are so catastrophic for both the producer and the chickens,” she explained.

But despite bringing the chickens inside and strict biosecurity measures in place, Ms Godwin is still “very nervous”.

She said: “All it takes is a tiny, tiny piece of contaminated wild bird dung or something that has been carried into the barn on someone's boots.

“It’s literally grams that can infect the entire herd. And at this moment the entire herd must be destroyed.”

The UK Health Safety Agency (UKHSA) continues to say the risk to public health is “very low”, while the Food Standards Agency (FSA) has said that bird flu poses a very low risk to food safety and that properly cooked poultry and eggs are safe to eat.

But Professor Brown warned that the virus must be constantly monitored for mutations.

“The good news is that, at their core, these viruses are still avian viruses. They don’t want to be in the human body,” he said.

“We have to constantly monitor the virus because it is a flu virus and flu viruses change.

“Even when they are happy as birds are, they still go through changes. They make mistakes and errors when they reproduce.

“So this could always give rise to a variant that could be more infectious to people.”

UK Chief Veterinary Officer Christine Middlemiss urged all poultry keepers to comply with the new poultry keeping measures and continue to apply “strict biosecurity measures, remain vigilant for any signs of disease and immediately report suspected disease to the Animal and Plant Health Agency.”

“I appreciate the impact these measures are having on the industry and am extremely grateful for the continued collaboration within the poultry sector,” she said.

“We know from previous years that keeping birds will reduce infestation rates from the high levels we are seeing now.”

British Poultry Council chief executive Richard Griffiths said the placement order was “the right move at the right time”, while Gary Ford of the British Free Range Egg Producers Association said it provided “the clarity and consistency that producers have been calling for”.