Former Republican Rep. Mike Rogers holds a significant lead over several Democratic candidates in Michigan's open 2026 Senate race, according to a new poll.
The poll, conducted on behalf of the Republican group Sentinel Action Fund and first reported by the Daily Caller News Foundation, shows voters would choose Rogers over the three Democratic primary candidates in head-to-head matchups.. Michigan voters also favor Republicans on issues of immigration, crime and the economy, giving the GOP several “tactical advantages” in the battleground state, according to voting note. (RELATED: Trump clears field for GOP Senate in Michigan as Democrats grapple with messy primary)
In a hypothetical general election matchup against Michigan State Senator Mallory McMorrow, Rogers has a 13-point lead. The Michigan Republican also leads Democratic Rep. Haley. Stevens and Bernie Sanders endorsed former public health official Abdul El-Sayed by 9 points.
Rogers, who has so far avoided a serious primary challenger, is expected to head into the general election with support President Donald Trump, the Senate Republican campaign, and leading GOP super PACs. The Michigan Republican is running succeed in the resignation of Democratic Senator Gary Peters after the fall short by a razor-thin margin in the 2024 Senate proposal.
Three Democratic candidates face messy primaries fight this could be detrimental to a candidate running for the general election. Although Stevens has no clear lead in the Democratic primary led field in the last fundraising quarter.
The Sentinel Action Foundation, which hired Republican polling firm Targeted Grassroots to conduct the poll, argues that the GOP is well positioned to flip the seat but must have the message “first” with crime and immigration serving as “supporting” issues.
Republicans maintain double-digit leads over the usual Democratic candidate on crime and immigration. Michigan voters also give Republicans a seven-point lead on the economy and jobs.
“As Democrats pursue their sweeping primaries, Republicans should focus on the cost of living, border security and crime – exactly where voters already trust the Republican Party,” the poll says.
WASHINGTON, DC – FEBRUARY 6: U.S. Rep. Haley Stevens (D-Mich.), joined by fellow House Democrats, speaks at a press conference at the U.S. Capitol on February 6, 2025 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Kayla Bartkowski/Getty Images)
Public polls in the critical Senate race have yielded mixed results.
Rosetta Stone survey carried out From October 23 to October 25, Rogers led El-Sayed by 14 points. The poll also showed the Michigan Republican with a 7-point lead over McMorrow and Stevens.
ABC12 Poll released Friday showed McMorrow and Stevens leading Rodgers within the margin of error. The poll did not include a hypothetical matchup between Rogers and El-Sayed.
The poll is likely to bolster Republicans' view that Michigan is one of the party's best opportunities to flip the Senate during the midterm elections. Democrats, by contrast, must keep the state in the Democratic column to achieve the party's long-term ambition to regain control of the Senate.
The voting record also states that little inclined Voters casting ballots in 2024 could prove pivotal in securing Rogers' victory.
The Rogers campaign has already begun construction ground game operation and released ad Friday aimed at reaching those voters.
“A statewide, data-driven operation doesn’t just win one race—it strengthens the entire ballot,” Sentinel Action Fund President Jessica Anderson said in a statement. “These new data show Michigan is within Republican control in 2026.”
“With the right targeting, targeted messaging and a strong position to reach voters across the ballot, Mike Rogers and Republicans can flip this state and create a strong conservative majority that can implement President Trump's bold agenda and deliver real results for the American people,” Anderson added.
Rogers could face challenges in a midterm election year, which historically doesn't bode well for the party in power. A Republican also hasn't won a Michigan Senate seat in more than three decades.
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