LONDON — As President Donald Trump took the stage in Egypt to hail the U.S.-brokered ceasefire between Israel and Hamas, a number of world leaders stood behind him like extras in a political drama.
It was a telling image. European governments have struggled to play a significant role in diplomacy over the Gaza war, while the leader of the “America First” movement has played a central role, sidelining longtime allies in Europe.
Closer to home, they have achieved mixed results as they try to shape Trump's response to Russian President Vladimir Putin's insistence on starting a war in Ukraine, a conflict with profound consequences for the future of the continent.
“Will Europe be able to influence Trump? I think the short answer is… no,” said Lindsay Newman, a geopolitical risk expert and columnist for GZERO Media. “The policy and position of the US government – on Ukraine, on Israel, on its relations with Europe – are determined by the president and his entourage. Mainly by the president.”
Newman said Trump's ambitious global agenda proves anyone who thinks “America First means a narrow, isolationist foreign policy” wrong.
“He remakes the world in his image,” she said.
Disagreement and some progress over Ukraine
European support for Ukraine against the Russian invasion has clashed with Trump's desire to end the conflict, even if it means Kyiv would have to give up territory. The continent's leaders have had decidedly mixed results in their efforts to win support for Ukraine's president.
Trump this week finally pulled the trigger on Russia's oil and gas industry after bipartisan pressure in Washington and months of lobbying from Kyiv and its European allies.
But he appears more motivated by frustration with Putin – unable to persuade the Russian leader to hold direct talks with Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky – than by appeasing European countries, which he has accused of undermining their calls for US sanctions by continuing to buy Russian oil.
“Every time I talk to Vladimir, I have good conversations, and then they don’t go away,” an exasperated Trump said Wednesday. “I just felt it was time. We've been waiting a long time.”
The White House did not respond to requests for comment.
Frustration in efforts to end the war
Trump has made no secret of his disappointment at being unable to stop the three-and-a-half year war, something he boasted during the campaign, which he will end on his first day back in office.
He berated Zelensky in the Oval Office, met with Putin in Alaska and sent envoys to Moscow and Kyiv, but failed to push both sides to the negotiating table. Days after his meeting with Putin, however, Trump hosted Zelensky and top European leaders at the White House and said the U.S. would be willing to support European efforts to oversee any peace deal in Ukraine.
Trump has hinted at providing Kyiv with long-range Tomahawk missiles to strike Russia, but also appeared to back Putin's demand that Ukraine surrender its entire eastern Donbass region, including parts that Russia does not occupy.
The president and his team argue that the biggest conflict on European soil since World War II is of minimal importance to the United States and have called on Europeans to take greater responsibility for ending the conflict.
European leaders welcomed oil and gas sanctions this week, which French President Emmanuel Macron called a “turning point.”
But Europe has its own differences over Ukraine. The 27-nation European Union is trying to finalize a plan to use frozen Russian assets as collateral for a massive loan to Ukraine. Belgium, where most of the money is kept, is seeking assurances that other countries will share the burden of any economic retaliation from Russia.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, who is friendly to Moscow, opposes EU support for Kyiv. Despite this, Grégoire Roos, director of the Europe and Russia program at international affairs think tank Chatham House, said progress was being made towards a common European position on Trump.
“I don't see absolute unanimity, but on the other hand I haven't seen any significant breakdown in unity,” he said. “As for Europe, this is already a victory.”
Trump Focuses on the Middle East
Europe's influence on ending the war between Israel and Hamas is even more limited.
“Europe has had no real impact, let's face it,” Roos said, although Europe will have to provide both money and expertise for the eventual reconstruction of Gaza.
The EU is the world's largest aid provider to the Palestinians but has little leverage over Israel, partly because European countries are divided over how to handle the conflict.
After establishing a fragile ceasefire that he hailed at the Oct. 13 summit in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt, as “a once-in-a-lifetime chance to put old divisions and bitter hatreds behind us,” Trump and his team heaped praise on Egypt, Qatar, Turkey and Saudi Arabia. But he said nothing about European participation.
Trump's ambassador to Israel, Mike Huckabee, even took to X to call a senior British government official “delusional” for suggesting that the UK played a crucial role in facilitating the Gaza deal.
The US administration's irritation has been fueled in part by Britain and France last month joining several other countries in recognizing a Palestinian state.
The ceasefire has at least temporarily reduced the volume of European criticism of Israel over its treatment of the Palestinians – often tinged with implicit criticism of the United States' staunch support for Israel.
Jonath Schanzer, a former terrorism financing analyst at the US Treasury Department, said the space created by the ceasefire could help put the US and Europe in a better position.
“Trump's truce has quieted the furious European criticism,” said Schanzer, executive director of the Foundation for Defense of Democracies, a hawkish Washington think tank. “This has allowed all parties to move forward more constructively.”
Newman said Trump seemed more interested in building relationships with countries in the Middle East than with Europe.
“Successive U.S. administrations have attempted to move away from the Middle East,” she said. “But it’s almost as if there’s been a turn toward the region.”
Some good news for Europe
Russia's incursion into Ukraine and its growing belligerence toward neighboring NATO countries has been a wake-up call for Europe, made even more alarming by Trump's long-running threats not to defend European NATO members unless they devote more money to their own defense.
This produced the desired response, pushing many European countries to increase military spending.
Europe's worst fears about a second Trump term have yet to materialize. Trump did not withdraw American troops from Europe or withdraw from NATO. His global tariff blitz did not result in the threat of 100% import taxes on European goods.
Britain, which left the EU in 2020, is moving closer politically, economically and militarily to its European neighbors, with Prime Minister Keir Starmer emerging as a key conduit between Washington and the continent.
Kathleen Burke, emeritus professor of modern and contemporary history at University College London, said Trump respects unity and that “if Europeans stick together” they can hope to have some influence.
“Trump may have truly realized that it is always better to have allies than enemies,” she said.
Madhani reported from Washington.
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