For those watching in Ottawa, it's no surprise that the NDP and Bloc Québécois have decided not to support the first motion of no confidence in the Liberal government's budget.
This has nothing to do with what each side thinks about the actual contents of the budget and everything to do with political self-preservation.
Prime Minister Mark Carney's minority Liberal government on Thursday passed the first of three confidence tests in its autumn budget. The NDP and Bloc decided not to support the Conservative amendment calling for significant cuts in government spending. This decision, at least for now, keeps Carney's government alive.
But make no mistake: This is not a vote of confidence in Carney or his financial plan. This is a vote to avoid elections.
No opposition party wants to meet with voters now. Bloc knows he has little to gain from an early start to the campaign. And the NDP, still months away from choosing a new leader, wants it even less.
“The Conservatives want massive cuts to government spending. That's the exact opposite direction that the New Democrats think we need to go,” NDP interim leader Don Davis said ahead of Thursday's vote.
It's a convenient talking point, but it's not what really drives the NDP's decision. The driving force behind this is timing and personal interest.
The NDP is in a leadership vacuum. With the exit of former party leader Jagmeet Singh earlier this year and a party convention scheduled for March, the party is trying to avoid political chaos. Calling an election before then would force the NDP to launch a campaign without a permanent leader, without time to rebuild its brand, clarify its message or prepare financially.
In other words, it would be suicide.
So Davis and his group of seven MPs are doing what all politicians in office do when their survival is on the line – they are biding their time. They'll talk about protecting Canadians from “conservative austerity” and “protecting public services,” but the real motive is to avoid going to the polls.
Even Davis has all but conceded that the NDP's position could change again.
“We had a discussion about the vote (Thursday) and we decided that we would vote no … and we will have a discussion (Friday) on the Bloc proposal,” he said.
Translation: We'll continue to buy time and figure out which way the political winds are blowing later.
Blok's argument is not much different. Although leader Yves-François Blanchet is always quick to speak up about the need to defend Quebec's interests, his party also has no desire to participate in elections. Support for the Bloc has stalled and there is no guarantee that it will be able to increase its number of seats in the new campaign.
For both the Bloc and the NDP, this is about risk management, not fiscal philosophy.
That reality leaves enough breathing room for the Liberals to pass three credibility tests over the next few weeks. For now, they can count on opposition MPs' fear of the ballot box to keep them afloat.
Carney's team is well aware that this delay is temporary. The Prime Minister may have dodged a bullet, but his government remains vulnerable. The budget faces two more votes of confidence in the coming weeks, each of which will test the shaky alliances keeping this minority government in power.
Still, the dynamic is clear: No one wants an election, especially Canadians.
This has been the story of federal politics since 2019, when Canada first entered a long era of minority rule. Governments survive not because of beliefs or shared goals, but because those who support them fear the alternative.
Every prime minister leading a minority government understands that survival often depends on exploiting the weaknesses of the opposition. Right now, the NDP's weakness is obvious, and Carney is more than happy to use it to his advantage.
As for conservatives, they too are playing their part, calling for spending caps, balanced budgets and an end to what they call liberal fiscal recklessness.
They know their budget amendment didn't stand a chance. But that's not the point. The goal was to present itself as the only party willing to take a tough stance against deficit spending.
Thursday's vote was never about financial policy or ideology. It was a matter of political calculation: who would win, who would lose, and who could survive another week.
The liberals got a break. The NDP and the Bloc are gaining time. Conservatives are beginning to oppose cost overruns.
So when NDP and Bloc MPs rise again in the House to vote against the vote of confidence – essentially keeping Carney's government alive – don't confuse that with condemnation. It's not about budget or ideology. It's about survival.
Tom Brodbeck is an award-winning author and columnist with more than 30 years of experience in print media. He joined Free press in 2019. Tom was born and raised in Montreal and graduated from the University of Manitoba in 1993 with a Bachelor of Arts in Economics and Commerce. More about Tom.
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