For Democrats like Leslie Frucht, President Donald Trump's victory in 2024 was downright demoralizing. But she still felt compelled to hold a rally in Paramus, New Jersey, on a recent Saturday in support of her party's candidate for governor, Rep. Mika Sherrill.
“We have to do something, and you have to feel part of the fight,” Frucht said.
Democrats hope for gubernatorial election this year in New Jersey And Virginia ignite their supporters not only in these states but across the country as they look to move on from a brutal 2024 election cycle in which they lost the White House and Senate, and polls show the party remains widely unpopular.
“Winning cures a lot of ills, doesn't it? It shows people that we're back on track,” Democratic National Committee Chairman Ken Martin told NBC News while knocking on doors earlier this month in Medford, New Jersey.
“But we won,” Martin added, pointing to the party’s position. exceeding results in early legislative elections this year, noting that every victory is “another shot in the arm for Democrats that gives them the feeling that we have a plan, we know what we're doing, we're back and that we're going to win in '26 and then again in '28.”
National Democrats see the elections in New Jersey and Virginia as a key test of their message on economic issues, an emphasis that voters said the party was sorely lacking last year.
Sherrill and Spanberger did just that, developing campaigns aimed at reducing the cost of living.
But they both face a delicate balancing act on a host of other hot-button issues that have given the Democratic Party fits in recent election cycles, including transgender rights and immigration.
With the election just days away, polls show Spanberger holding a steady lead in Virginia over Republican Gov. Vince Earle-Sears, while polls show the race in New Jersey between Sherrill and Republican Jack Ciattarelli remains close.
But if Spanberger and Sherrill win blue-leaning states, it's certain that Democratic officials will be looking to emulate the approach both candidates took to crafting messages for the party's many candidates in the 2026 midterm elections.
“If we win both states, that will push us into '26 and hopefully create a wave where we can take back both the House and the Senate,” Martin said.
Laser focus on costs
In more than two dozen interviews with NBC News, Democratic officials, officials, candidates, operatives and voters said one of the biggest lessons from this year's campaigns was how Spanberger and Sherrill focused on the issue of affordability.
Cheryl herself said that this was the main takeaway from her campaign.
“I'm obviously focused on what we can do here in New Jersey in terms of costs, affordability, utility costs, health care costs, housing costs,” Sherrill said after a rally in Paramus with her message to fellow Democrats watching her race. “But what I hear from my colleagues in the House is that their constituents are asking the same thing: How do we reduce costs?”
Cheryl promised in her final TV commercial to “reduce your costs.” She also emphasized her “day one” plan to solve the problem rising energy costs declaring a state of emergency on utility prices.
In Virginia Spanberger stayed focused on the message it highlighted plans to cut costs on health care and prescription drugs, housing and energy, while criticizing Trump for wreaking havoc on the state's economy. Much of this view was tied to Trump's efforts to shrink the federal workforce early in his second term (many federal employees live in Virginia), and it used the ongoing government shutdown to bolster that approach.
In an interview with NBC News after a recent campaign event at a peanut farm in Franklin, Virginia, Spanberger said her message on the economy was a result of what she heard from voters.
“It's a matter of what people bring to me, which is the concern about accessibility, the ability to know that your kids may have the opportunities that you might want for them,” she said. “It’s rising energy costs, healthcare costs, housing costs.”
Democratic strategists said the overarching focus on economic issues stands in stark contrast to the party's messaging on the ballot last year.
“After 2024, we know we need to focus on the kitchen table. [issues]. Spanberger and Sherrill have shown that voters respond when we do this,” said Jesse Ferguson, a Democratic strategist and veteran of Virginia campaigns.
In an interview after a recent Spanberger campaign event, Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro, a potential 2028 Democratic presidential candidate, praised Sherrill and Spanberger for “running their race on issues like affordability and freedom” and suggested that anything that contributes to a winning message should be part of future campaigns.
“The party must move toward winning races again after losing the presidential race and many races surrounding this last cycle,” Shapiro said. “The direction our party needs to go is to win again and focus on finding answers and solutions to the pressing problems of the people in the states.”
Difficult questions
Spanberger and Sherrill also tackled issues that have stymied other Democrats: transgender rights and immigration.
Spanberger faced criticism from Republicans for failing to take a clear position on transgender participation in youth sports and the use of school locker rooms and public restrooms. Those issues were part of a broader, education-focused message that Virginia GOP Gov. Glenn Youngkin used on his way to victory four years ago and have been used again in Trump's successful 2024 campaign.
Earl-Sears attempted to revive this strategy by launching advertising that imitated clip from Trump's election campaign last yearin which the narrator says: “Spanberger is for them/them, not for us.”
Spanberger struggled to find a coherent and concise answer throughout the campaign, but eventually began to explain her position, saying she believed it was important that such matters be left up to parents, teachers and administrators, not the governor. This response largely avoided the emerging debate within the Democratic Party on the issue.
But voters and Democratic strategists say Spanberger was able to get away with not addressing the issue more directly because she set a clear message on the economy that polls showed It's the larger issue that transgender rights are ruling this cycle.
“It doesn't have the same resonance as it once did because the argument was ultimately about priorities,” Ferguson said of the GOP's transgender-related attacks. “Voters see that this time the GOP is obsessed with the they/them theme, while the Democrats are focused on the kitchen table, that is, the you.”
Gene Granger, a 43-year-old self-described independent from Portsmouth who supports Spanberger, said the Democrat's approaches to trans issues “have been good.”
“Who cares? We should be talking about the economy, jobs, prosperity, how we're going to make Virginia a better place, not whether someone is a guy or a gal,” Granger said after a recent Spanberger campaign event.
Spanberger also discussed the issue of past violent text messages from Democratic attorney general candidate Jay Jones that were discovered earlier this month. She condemned the reports but did not withdraw his support or call for him to quit the race.
Her stance has prompted many Democratic voters interviewed by NBC News to question how she communicates on the issue. Shelvin Vaughn, a 70-year-old retired government employee from Chesapeake, called Spanberger's responses on issues like transgender rights and Jones “salad,” but he still voted for her and Jones. Overall, he said, Democrats “need to be more direct” with voters.
Transgender rights have not been such a big issue in New Jersey. But Cheryl is tackling the sensitive topic of immigration, an important issue in a state where about 1 in 4 residents were born abroad.
Republicans have got an advantage in immigration in recent years, and Trump paid tribute to his border policy welcome him back to the White House.
Eliminating New Jersey's status as a sanctuary state is one of Ciattarelli's top campaign promises, along with making the state more affordable. Current New Jersey Politics, known as the Immigrant Trust Directivelimits the cooperation of state and local law enforcement officials with federal immigration authorities.
Cheryl called for “comprehensive immigration reform” at the federal level, but at first he refused to say during the debate over whether she would retain the Immigrant Trust Directive. She subsequently spoke about the directive“There are areas that I am very supportive of and areas that I think need to be addressed.”
Rep. Rob Menendez, D-N.J., said Sherrill “has made it clear that New Jersey is an inclusive place and we care about each other. And I think that will guide her administration. But we can't ignore the fact that the work is happening at the federal level.”
Asked if Democrats still have work to do when it comes to winning over voters on immigration, Menendez said: “We all have a responsibility to always do the work. On immigration, we must continue to lead, continue to demonstrate that this administration's approach is not the answer.”
Bridget Bowman reported from Medford and Paramus, New Jersey. Adam Edelman reported from Chesapeake, Portsmouth, Norfolk and Franklin, Virginia.
