Democrats have an edge going into 2026 midterms, new poll shows : NPR

Heading into the 2026 midterm elections, there are some very serious warning signs for Republicans in recent developments. NPR/PBS News/Marist Poll.

The survey of 1,443 adults, conducted November 10-13, found:

• Democrats have the largest 14-point lead since 2017 on the question of who respondents would vote for if the midterm elections were held today;
• President Trump's approval rating is just 39%, his lowest since the attack on the Capitol on January 6, 2021;
• Collectively, 6 out of 10 blame Republicans in Congress or Trump for what happened. government shutdown; And
• Nearly 6 in 10 say Trump's top priority should be lowering prices—and no other issue comes close.

“I don't think rent prices or food prices are at the forefront like they should be,” said Nicole Stokes of Dallas, Texas, who participated in the NPR poll and voted for Trump last year. “You know, the American people, it's our pockets that are being torn open to fund anything.”

Other respondents, from political parties and Congress to the Supreme Court and the media, said they had little or no trust in these critical institutions.

“I feel lost,” said survey respondent Wayne Dowdy of Memphis, Tenn., who describes himself as having “lost democracy.” “The parties don’t talk to me anymore.”

He said he often feels invisible to the Democratic Party, but given the alternative, he plans to continue supporting Democratic candidates — for now.

The frustration extends to how people view members of the opposing political party. Large majorities of Democrats and Republicans said the other party was “dishonest” and “closed” on policy.

All of this makes for a volatile political environment heading into the holidays, but with Republicans controlling all the levers of power in Washington, Democrats have a clear advantage a year before next year's midterm elections.

Democrats at the helm of control of Congress

With huge victories across the country in this year's off-year elections, Democrats lead Republicans (55%-41%) when people were asked who they would vote for in their district if congressional elections were held today.

That's Democrats' biggest lead on the issue, known as the congressional vote, according to a Marist poll since November 2017. The analogy is striking considering that this happened at the same point in Trump's first term as the current poll. In 2018, Democrats won 40 seats in the House of Representatives.

Moreover, independent candidates on this issue chose Democrats by a 33-point margin. This is a far cry from a year ago, when the parties were tied in Congress shortly before the 2024 election when President Trump reclaimed the White House.

Historically, Democrats have needed a significant lead in the congressional vote to signal that they will do well in the upcoming midterm elections.

Consider:

• In the fall of 2022, when Democratic President Biden was in the White House, the Democratic advantage fluctuated between 0 and 4 points. They lost 9 seats in the House of Representatives;
• In 2018, during Trump's first term, Democrats' lead ranged from 6 to 12. They gained 40 seats;
• In 2014, when Democrat Barack Obama was president, Republicans had a 5-point advantage. The Republican Party won 13 seats.

All this suggests that with the redistricting number of competitive places has decreased significantlytherefore, significant growth is less likely than in previous years. Trump also urged conservatives in red states to try to create more Republican districts in rare mid-decade redistricting.

Democrats responded in kind, so the situation with control of the House of Representatives next year remains uncertain at the moment.

Trump is dragging the Republican Party

The main reason Democrats have an advantage is that Trump is unpopular. Not only does his approval stand at 39%, the lowest of this second term in the Marist poll, but he also receives just a 24% approval rating among independent candidates.

Overall, almost half of those surveyed – 48% – said that they strongly do not approve of the president's work. This is also the highest figure for this period and the highest since January 6, 2021.

The President has seen low marks for his performance in various policy areas, including economy And foreign policyand people think that he went too far on immigration.

Trump said on more than one case During this second term, campaign advisers told him that prices were the most important issue, but he always felt it was really immigration. But respondents to the NPR poll sent a clear message: They believe the cost of living should be Trump's top priority.

Nearly 6 in 10 (57%) said lowering prices should be their top priority. Immigration comes in second at 16%. Even a majority of Republicans (40%) said lowering prices should be a priority over immigration (34%).

Despite Trump's declining approval ratings, he holds up well among his base, with 9 in 10 Republicans continuing to say they approve of the job he is doing.

Stokes, a Trump voter from Dallas, said a year into his presidency she is pleased with his efforts to crack down on illegal border crossings and limit U.S. foreign aid, but she is concerned that the president has not focused much on the economy.

But her support for Trump does not extend to Republicans on Capitol Hill. Instead, she says she has little trust in elected officials representing either political party.

“They are not in harmony with anyone on the ground,” Stokes said. “I don’t see anyone at all [the House] or in the Senate, this is really for the American people now.”

It's not just Trump. Democrats and others get low marks

Trump's approval is low, as is trust in his position – 61% said they have little or no trust in the institution of the presidency.

But other key institutions scored even worse. Congress was the worst performer, with 80% saying they had little to no trust in it, followed by the media (75%), the Democratic Party (71%), the Republican Party (65%) and the Supreme Court (62%).

This is yet another poll that shows Democrats have problems with their base. While 80% of Republicans have “somewhat” or “a lot” of confidence in the Republican Party, only 57% of Democrats said the same about their party.

Despite longtime support for liberal candidates, Dowdy, a Memphis Democrat, argues the party is out of touch with everyday voters.

“They don't interact with working people,” he said, “whether they work in an office or a workplace, build houses or work in a factory. They don't know how such people live… They have no connection with real people. And there is no attempt to achieve this.”

Still, Democrats have a large advantage in voting in Congress, which, coupled with election victories earlier this month, suggests voters on the left may rally behind Democrats when forced to choose between them and Republicans.

Democrats and Republicans consider each other “dishonest” and “closed”

It is not surprising that political hostility in the country is so high; people have very little respect for where the other side is coming from.

The poll found that more than 8 in 10 Republicans and Democrats described members of the other political party as “closed”; More than 7 in 10 Republicans and about two-thirds of Democrats also think the other is “dishonest” when talking about politics.

Independents have better views of Democrats than Republicans. They said Republicans are more dishonest and close-minded than Democrats, with a majority of independents (54%) saying Republicans are “mostly dishonest” while more than 6 in 10 said Democrats are “mostly honest” when it comes to politics.

Nearly 7 in 10 independents also said Republicans are mostly open-minded, while a majority (53%) said Democrats are mostly open-minded.