Tthis is the trend lately NFL seasons. Around Week 8, the MVP race will start to take a predictable turn: it will almost certainly include Patrick Mahomes, Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson (if the Ravens are in the running).
Between 2015 and 2019, the NFL had four MVP winners for the first time—Cam Newton, Matt Ryan, Mahomes and Jackson. But in the last five years, only Allen has won for the first time (the other winners have been Aaron Rodgers, Mahomes and Jackson).
Allen is the favorite to win back-to-back games this season, meaning the league has recognized the previous winner five times in the last six years. But voters are experiencing fatigue; everyone needs a fresh star. And the list of candidates applying for the first time this year seems unusually deep and unusually interesting. Maybe these guys won't win this year, but let's look at the players who could break up the Mahomes-Allen-Jackson triumvirate in the next few seasons.
A few notes: The rankings below reflect players' chances of winning the award over the next few years, not this season specifically. We also eliminated regular contenders like Joe Burrow, Matthew Stafford and Dak Prescott in favor of longer shots.
Sam Darnold, Seattle Seahawks
It's no joke anymore: Darnold is one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL. It was easy to laugh at his rise in Minnesota. You could point to the sketchy setting and its excellent supporting cast. In Seattle, things are different.
The Seahawks' game hasn't come together yet. The offensive line has improved, but still lags behind the league's best. Jackson Smith-Njigba was a top-five wide receiver in the league this year, but he was promoted thanks to Darnold's decision-making and accuracy.
Seattle has rebuilt its offense around Darnold, who is still just 28 years old (younger than Burrow, who was drafted two years later). They hunt for deep plays, relying on Darnold's arm to push the ball down the field. In this role, he looks more like Stafford than the Darnold we saw during his Jets years. Early in his career, Darnold struggled under pressure, defying the rush and suppressing costly turnovers. He has removed much of that fat from his game. Where he once saw ghostsnow he creates plays when his defense breaks down or his offense's structure breaks down.
Use any quarterback stat you like and Darnold will be at or near the top of the list. He leads the league in the RBSDM index, which aggregates the value of each offensive play and measures how much a quarterback can be considered responsible for that value. Whoever surpasses this number by the end of the year usually ends up in the final three in MVP voting.
In five weeks, Darnold has proven that last season in Minnesota was no fluke. That's who he is now, and it's been an improvement for Seattle over Geno Smith. If he can lead the Seahawks to a division title, the redemption narrative will put him in conversation with Allen and Mahomes.
Chance of getting MVP: 7/10. This year may be his best chance to win.
Baker Mayfield, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Speaking of redemption arcs. There was a time when the Panthers hired Baker Mayfield. And Darnold. Ugh. Mayfield left scout team pass rusher in Carolina to become a quarterback in Tampa Bay.
The MVP award is in some ways a reward for storytelling, and few have a better story than Mayfield. Burrow, Stafford and Prescott are the best defenders. But there's something about his story that should give him extra credibility among voters. Many franchises passed on him before he even arrived in Tampa. He's had three different offensive coordinators over the past three seasons, but has continued to run the Bucs' offense at the highest level.
Mayfield hasn't been as clean this year as he was in 2024. Overall he was a bit distracted. But he's working in a difficult environment, with Tampa's running game stalled and the offensive line weakened by injuries. Yet despite these issues, Mayfield is playing the best ball of his career. He's already led the Bucs to four wins this season and leads the league in rushing percentage, according to Pro Football Focus. He's doing more with less, including waltzing into Seattle with a beat-up roster and loss of 38 points about one of the best defenses in football (although it had a lot of injury problems that it had to deal with on its own).
In a time before advanced analytics, Mayfield led this year's race. At critical times, he put his team on his back more than any other defender. Voters still value it, but not to the same extent as in the 1990s and early 2000s.
Chance of getting MVP: 4/10. His style of play causes him to miss in several games.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders
Daniels returned from injury against the Chargers on Sunday and reminded everyone why he was most impressive newcomer enter the league in one generation. Daniels crushed the Chargers in the second half on the road, leading the Commanders to a comfortable win in Los Angeles.
It hasn't been the smoothest start to his second season. The Commanders' approach to building the team around Daniels was unique. They tried to accelerate success, knowing they had achieved something special with a quarterback on a cheap rookie contract. But they still have the oldest roster in the league by some margin. And this is noticeable, especially in defense.
In the mid-term, Washington's roster construction could hurt Daniels. But he remains a supernova single-handedly at the most valuable position in the game. He's the closest quarterback in the league to Jackson: an accurate passer who's also electric with the ball in his hands as a runner. If he can overtake the Eagles at the top of the NFC East in the next couple of years, he'll be a lock to win the award.
Probability of getting MVP: 8/10. The most confident player in his vaunted rookie class to win in the next three years.
Justin Herbert, Los Angeles Chargers
Things were going well for Herbert and the Chargers. Two weeks into the season, it seemed like it was his year. Finally, the pieces around him fell into place. And the Chargers moved to a Herbert-centric offense, moving from a run-oriented group to a pass-oriented group. It was as if Jim Harbaugh was aiming to win the MVP award for Herbert the same way he was aiming to topple the Chiefs in the AFC West.
That has changed. The Chargers lost too many pieces on their offensive line. They gave up the winning play to the Giants and the Commanders beat them on both sides of the line of scrimmage. The difficulty level for Herbert at this stage of the season is too high. Even to keep the chains moving, he has to don a superhero cape. It's fun in small samples—and valuable for the MVP award when it's in the national spotlight—but unsustainable during the regular season.
Herbert has MVP talent. When the Chargers are healthy, he is the favorite to win the award among players on this list. It meets the requirements: the rule of the new, the game, the victory. It passes the eye test and has a monopoly on some of the trendiest metrics. But it won't be this year.
Chance of getting MVP: 9/10. In the end, the Chargers will stay healthy and Herbert will break through.
Travis Hunter, Jacksonville Jaguars
MVP is an award for a quarterback. The last non-QB to receive it was Adrian Peterson in the 2012 season. However, playing both sides of the ball greatly helps anyone trying to upset the cartel of defenders.
It was an inauspicious start for Hunter as a two-way phenom. The Jags vacillated between using him primarily on offense and defense. Last week they settled on spinning 40 clicks on each side of the ball. And it seems like the right piece for a rookie trying to get up to speed in the pro game while learning a complex offense and the trickiest defense in the league.
Hunter was a decent rookie, but he wasn't an immediate game-changer. There have been flashes of talent that made him a Heisman winner, but he has yet to take over the game while playing both ways. At some point, the Jags could decide to use him on one end and only put him on the field for certain packages on the other. But that's not the plan at the moment.
This could steepen Hunter's development curve, but it will also increase his MVP potential. Who else could realistically have double-digit touchdowns as a receiver while also receiving five or more takeaways? If Hunter understands his potential is similar to Ohtani on both sides of the ball, voters will look past defenders.
Probability of getting MVP. 5/10. The only “defender” with a sniff.
Drake May, New England Patriots
May was thrust into the national spotlight with his performance on the road in Buffalo on Sunday. But throughout the season, he steadily put together an MVP-winning campaign.
This year, the Patriots rank fourth in the league in pass efficiency. A lot of that has to do with the return of Josh McDaniels. The offensive coordinator had wide open receivers everywhere. But it also speaks to May's development. He cut the number of brain farts per game from four to two. He masters simple things. And when the offense falls apart and he's asked to create on his own, he looks like a mini-Josh Allen.
The extended data paints it as fourth most valuable defender in the league this season. And it’s hard to disagree with this. His accuracy has improved. It does not intercept. He can spread it to all parts of the field and is a legitimate dual threat. Oh, and he does it with a mediocre offensive line, a group of running backs that consistently fail, and a ton of receivers outside of Stefon Diggs.
This year the season may be too early. But the Patriots must make the playoffs given their start and upcoming schedule. As they continue to add talent, May's chances will continue to improve.
Chance of getting MVP: 6/10. He's working on Allen's timeline.
TALE of Jaro-Kiawe, California
Substitution time. If Allen, Mahomes and Jackson continue to share the MVP award, the next first winner may not even be in the league yet.
Every year as the draft approaches, prognosticators tell fans not to worry about this year's shaky crop of quarterback talent. Just wait until next year! Some organizations always seem to be waiting for the next massive influx of QB talent.
Last year was no different, but the 2026 draft has been disappointing so far. Arch Manning, Garrett Nussmeier and Lanorris Sellers, who were all in contention to be drafted before the start of the season, faced challenges. There is no clear No. 1 pick, but rather a collection of eight talented but flawed prospects that teams are considering at the top of the draft.
So let's sail even further down the road. The most exciting guard in college this year is Sagapolutele, a true freshman at UCLA. The Hawaiian transferred from Oregon after losing a quarterback battle to potential future No. 1 overall pick Dante Moore and already looks like the franchise quarterback of the future. Lefty Sagapolutele is the smart, decisive, pocket passer that professional teams covet. He also has a rocket for an arm and is an explosive runner.
Sagapolutele will not be eligible for the draft until 2028. This means he won't be in the real MVP conversation for at least five years if he continues on his current trajectory. But if he were eligible this year, he would be the favorite to go No. 1 overall.
Chance of getting MVP: 2/10. He has two years left and a lot can happen between college and the pros.
