ESince Team GB's successes on the velodrome at the 2008 Olympics, campaigners and government ministers have confidently predicted that Britain is on the verge of becoming a nation of cyclists. There's just one problem: for the most part, it didn't happen.
As well as a very concentrated surge in cycling use during Covid, levels of cycling in England have increased. remained generally static for years and nothing seems to change.
In December Brompton reported about lowest annual sales of self-titled folding bikes since 2021. Statistics from the Bicycle Association, the trade body for the UK cycling industry, show that in 2024Fewer conventional bicycles were purchased than in any other year this century.
“If you look at pedal bike sales since 2010, there hasn't been a single year, other than a Covid year, where sales haven't fallen. It always surprises me that people in the industry aren't more concerned about this,” says Philip Darnton, executive chairman of the Cycling Association.
However, this is not a picture of unconditional gloom. London is experiencing sustainable cycling boomnow makes almost 1.5 million trips per day, up 43% from 2019. Several other places have seen increases in bicycle use, albeit less impressively.
There are some obvious lessons behind this jumble of statistics. To find them, it's helpful to first think about the different types of cyclists on our roads.
Amateur racers – legendary middle-aged pedalers tearing through the Surrey Hills or Peak District in DayGlo Lycra, in all weathers – may be just a small part of what makes up a cycling nation.
Others include those who cycle every day for transportation, and experts agree that these people will only cycle if they believe it is safe to do so, requiring long-term investment in infrastructure. Finally, with the advent of e-bikes and dockless sharing networks like Lime, cycling is changing quickly, but some say the government hasn't caught up yet.
Adam Tranter, head of a PR agency that works with cycling brands and formerly the West Midlands Walking and Cycling Commissioner, points to a gradual shift in sales of higher-end bikes away from traditional road bikes to so-called gravel bikes designed for off-road riding and sophisticated indoor trainers on which people virtually compete against each other.
“All of this is code for people saying, 'I don't like being around cars because I don't feel safe,'” he says. “No matter how you look at it, you can't unlock the potential of cycling without making it much safer and more welcoming. It all comes down to this basic fact.”
While Westminster governments have vacillated between the relative enthusiasm for cycling under Boris Johnson and Keir Starmer transport culture wars And conspiracies Rishi Sunak, by contrast, London has enjoyed more than two decades of support under the leadership of mayors Ken Livingstone, Johnson and then Sadiq Khan.
“For things to really change, you need strong, consistent political leadership over a long period of time,” says a senior figure in the world of cyclical politics. “If you have ongoing investment, you can also attract and retain the talent and skills needed to make cycling work in an ancient and densely populated place like London. These people are not easy to find.”
Of course, London also has a concentrated population and a lack of incentives to drive, including congestion charges and a network of low-traffic neighborhoods in many areas.
As anyone who has been to London recently will know, the cycling crowds are not only growing in size, but also changing in type, with more people on electric bikes, including rental versions such as the ubiquitous Lime models.
Inside it is a special kind of machine: often amazingly fast electric gizmos powered by huge hub motors on the rear wheels and a set of zippered batteries, many of which are driven by economy racers for delivery companies. These are not ebikes, which is strictly defined by law. It's essentially a kind of electric motorcycle that's completely illegal but rarely challenged by the police.
“It's a huge problem with cycling's image because more or less everyone conflates those two things,” Tranter says. “You could solve this problem more or less overnight by forcing delivery companies to carry out checks, such as tracking the speed of passengers. But it seems we'd rather just moan about it.”
This new technological world means that sales of conventional bicycles are falling across Europe. The difference is that in many other countries the balance comes from sales of legal e-bikes.
Darnton says: “Germany, France, the Netherlands and Spain will sell more than 5 million electric bikes this year. We might be lucky if we sell 150,000 here.”
This is largely due to the fact that other countries have safer road conditions for cycling, as well as subsidies to help people buy sometimes expensive e-bikes. This scheme has so far only applied to electric cars and motorcycles in the UK.
But beyond that, ebikes have something of an image problem, something shaped by a combination of personal experience and media coverage.
Tranter says: “The problem with bike rentals is largely their popularity – as their numbers grow, so does the number of idiots, as is the case with any other form of transport. But ultimately their popularity is seen as a problem to be solved, rather than a huge success story for active mobility.”
Added to this is the almost unchecked use of illegal electric bicycles, many of them made in China, which are often dangerously fast and, unlike legal models, can scary flammable batteries.
Darnton says: “People read that e-bikes are dangerous and believe it. And if your landlord says you can't bring one on site, or your employer says you can't park it in an underground car park, which is increasingly the case, then you won't get one.
“In London, if you ask a person under 35 if they are thinking about buying a bike, they will answer: “Why? I have one at the end of the road.”
He adds: “'Existential' is a pretty scary word, but it's true: if we can't do what Europe is doing, what will happen to the UK cycling market is that it will become a leisure market, like golf, tennis, badminton or whatever.”
