November 26, 2025
For most of the island's residents, the threat is just another worry amid a debilitating economic crisis.
WITHuba, NNovember 26— The Cuban government and people are warily watching the latest efforts by the United States to topple the Venezuelan government of Nicolas Maduro as they struggle to recover from Hurricane Melissa and contain rising cases of dengue, chikungunya and oropush. For most Cubans, the threat is just one more worry amid a crippling economic crisis that has residents wasting energy trying to cope with crumbling infrastructure, rampant inflation and shortages of basic goods.
“If Trump and Marco Rubio succeed, it will be terrible for us,” said Havana-based craftsman Bernardo, who asked that his last name not be used.
“I criticize my government, but that doesn’t mean I want Rubio to be governor here,” he added, laughing.
“That would be a real bummer.”
The Cuban government has repeatedly criticized the Trump administration for announcing the largest U.S. military buildup in the region since the Cuban Missile Crisis, as well as unprecedented attacks on motorboats and crews off the coast of Venezuela aimed at stopping drug trafficking. According to a series of statements released since August by Cuba's Foreign Ministry, the real motive is to return the oil-rich country to client state status as part of the administration's stated goal of imposing imperial interests (the 19th-century Monroe Doctrine) in the region.
“This is a new implementation of the dominance scheme based on the Monroe Doctrine, which is the key to their interventionism in the Americas,” the August statement said.
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The August “Declaration of the Revolutionary Government of Cuba” said the $50 million bounty on Maduro as a “narco-terrorist” was part of a “psychological warfare campaign” to legitimize his actions under the “crude pretext” that Venezuela posed a threat to the national security of the United States and its citizens.
“The real purpose of these actions is to seize Venezuela’s oil and resources.”
In a separate statement, the Foreign Ministry accused the US of “claims linking the legitimate government of the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela and its President Nicolas Maduro with criminal organizations involved in drug trafficking” as absurd.
“Leaders in Washington are recklessly ignoring the assessment of their own Drug Enforcement Agency (DEA), which in its report this year does not mention the Venezuelan government among the authors or facilitators of drug trafficking operations threatening the United States,” the statement said.
If the Trump administration attacks Venezuela, Cuba will by far have the most to lose in the region; He will reportedly be next in line if Trump and his hardline national security adviser, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, succeed in their regime change mission in Venezuela. Three South Florida GOP House members who are leaders of the Cuban-American establishment are calling for military action against Venezuela, and the threat to Cuba is next. Senator Lindsey Graham recently tweeted that Cuba, along with Venezuela and Colombia, is part of a “drug caliphate in our backyard.”
Fulton Armstrong, a former senior CIA analyst for the region and now an adjunct professor at American University, said that if Maduro's government falls and a Washington-backed government prevails, a likely new leader, Maria Corina, would not be good news for Cuba.
“Her script was written by regime change advocates in Washington and Miami. Her policy towards Cuba is as tough as it gets,” he said.
“She and her staff called on our government to ‘help’ overthrow Maduro in order to overthrow the Cuban government,” he said.
Havana is doing everything it can to mobilize international opposition, especially in the region, over what it says are violations of the UN Charter and international law. Publicly, it has repeatedly called on governments to oppose military intervention, organized a meeting of the leftist regional bloc ALBA, and raised the issue at various international events.
“Cuba calls for international mobilization to prevent aggression and preserve Latin America and the Caribbean as a zone of peace,” the Revolutionary Declaration states.
At the same time, the government remains silent about the danger emanating within the country. There is no sign that it is increasing military readiness or providing more than minor intelligence support to Venezuela. The Foreign Ministry, in a series of statements, noted that more than a decade ago, heads of 32 regional states met in Havana and declared Latin America and the Caribbean a zone of peace.
Armstrong warned that Washington is often blind to nationalism and other countries' anger over sanctions and regime change.
Havana is less dependent on Caracas
Havana is less dependent on Caracas than it was a decade ago, largely because both countries suffered from former national security adviser John Bolton's “maximum pressure” policy against the Troika of Tyranny, which includes Nicaragua. The policy of tightening sanctions and intensifying efforts to build domestic opposition was implemented in 2019 during Trump's first term with the goal that, as punishment affected civilians, they would rebel and create justification for US intervention.
Secretary Rubio, who helped craft the policy when he was a senator, said after taking office that the policy failed because it did not allow the U.S. to fully influence the three countries as it would now under Trump.
Cuba's trade with Venezuela last year was just under a billion dollars – presumably almost all oil imports, down from $4.2 billion in 2015. Caracas then supplied Havana with more than 100,000 barrels of oil per day. Less than a third of that volume has been shipped this year. Assuming exports of medical and other technical assistance that neither country reports had the same value as stipulated in the agreement between them, that would also have amounted to about a billion dollars last year, or just 10 percent of Cuba's export earnings.
Ten years ago, there were dozens of joint ventures between the two countries, but last year none were registered in Cuba. There is no indication that any of them continued to operate in Venezuela.
Import-dependent Cuba's current crisis is largely driven by foreign currency shortages, the target of harsh U.S. sanctions imposed during Trump's previous term (mainly supported by the Biden administration) aimed at further depriving Cuba of the cash to import vital goods such as fuel, food, medicine, and manufacturing and agricultural inputs. United States sanctions also target international finance and investment, tourism, remittances and other income streams.
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Cuban Economy Minister Joaquín Alonso said in July that the economy had shrunk by more than 11 percent since 2019. He said agriculture, livestock and mining fell 53.4 percent over the same period, while manufacturing fell 23 percent.
Rubio launched a very unsuccessful campaign against Cuba. export of medical servicesclaiming that 24,000 doctors, nurses and technicians around the world are victims of human trafficking – a claim rejected by Havana and countries that host Cuban doctors. The Secretary of State is also resurrected USAID and other programs supporting government opponents, banned most Cubans from traveling to the United States, and increased enforcement of the ban on Cuba by most Americans. Trump released note On June 30, he ordered all branches of government to tighten existing sanctions.
Experts agree that a US-backed Venezuelan government would be a major political defeat for Havana and would strengthen Washington's efforts to undermine regional independence, integration and social progress. This would quickly cut off oil supplies to Cuba and expel thousands of Cuban doctors and other personnel, exacerbating the current crisis and suffering on the island. But few believe that without an operation like Venezuela against Havana, Washington will be able to overthrow the government.
“Cubans are not stupid. We've written their obituary dozens of times,” said Armstrong, a former CIA analyst.
“They are unable to provide the growth and economic stability needed for the future, but they know how to preserve what little they have, including some of the principles of the revolution, in the face of enormous adversity.”
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