Could China’s cautious new research strategy stifle its science-leadership ambitions?

In 2018I have argued that China's meteoric rise in research output masks deeper structural problems, including inconsistent research quality and a publish-or-perish academic culture. Seven years later the picture has changed.

The quality of research in China has improved: in 2023 it overtook the United States as the leading country in the Nature Indexwhich tracks publications in high-quality journals in the natural and medical sciences. Since then, The gap between the two countries has only widened.

These achievements reflect deliberate policy interventions, including those of the Chinese government. Double First Class Initiativelaunched in 2017 to develop world-class universities and disciplines by providing varying levels of funding based on results and strategic objectives, with a focus on quality over quantity.

At the institutional level, performance assessment now places more emphasis on originality, quality and international visibility rather than raw output. From 2020 in response to national policies aimed at addressing the widespread emphasis on research output rather than qualitySome universities have reduced or eliminated monetary rewards for large numbers of publications, replacing them with recognition associated with global influence and the respect of peers.

But structural problems remain. Some universities use salary increases instead of cash payments for articles as a more indirect way of rewarding prolific authors.¹. Progress has been uneven, with improvements concentrated in a small cluster of elite universities and disciplines. Political sensitivity continues to limit academic openness and freedom.

Earlier this year, I interviewed 10 university administrators and academics and 12 international graduate students at two Chinese research universities to understand how the country's increasingly cautious approach to global cooperation was affecting their work.

Landscape change

One of the biggest changes described by the interlocutors is the withdrawal of US-UK cooperation, especially in politically sensitive areas such as artificial intelligence (AI), aerospace and cybersecurity. Many universities are now encouraging partnerships with researchers from South and Southeast Asia, the Middle East, Africa and continental Europe – regions with which China is seeking to strengthen trade and economic ties. within the framework of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI).

Some universities are using planning tools to more carefully manage international partnerships. Several interviewees mentioned a system that ranks potential research partners by geopolitical and reputational risk: green for low risk, yellow for moderate, and red for high, requiring approval from senior university leaders. It “has become a routine part of proposal review—even for conferences or faculty exchanges,” said one academic advisor.

This shift is also affecting international students, especially from low- and middle-income countries participating in the BRI, who account for a growing share of students enrolling in Chinese universities.

Nature Index 2025 Research Leaders

Many of these students face significant challenges, including limited institutional support and language barriers. Some interviewees noted that as Chinese universities have shifted their focus from recruiting students from high-income countries such as South Korea, Japan, the US and the UK to students from low-income regions, the system seems less prepared to meet their academic and cultural needs.

For example, interviewees suggested that students from wealthier countries tended to receive clearer information and stronger institutional support than students from low- and middle-income countries, who were frustrated at being assigned to “English-language” classes that were not actually taught in English. “Many assignments are done in Chinese,” said a Pakistani student studying English linguistics. “I translate everything myself.”

Some interviewees noted that administrative obstacles, such as delays in visa renewals, have increased, especially as enforcement of residence and exit/entry rules has become more stringent. China Admission Rules foreign students — jointly issued in 2020 by the ministries of education, foreign affairs and public security — requires universities to coordinate with local public security bureaus and foreign affairs offices when processing visas and residence permits, thereby institutionalizing multiple layers of oversight.

Students sponsored by their country's government said they face strict requirements to return after graduation. “I have to return to Bangladesh and work for five years in a government agency, otherwise I will pay everything off,” explained a student from the country. “It blocks career opportunities.”

The rules reflect China's policy of developing foreign talent, especially students from Belt and Road countries who gain local experience and then return to their home countries to work in government or development sectors. The goal of the policy is to promote long-term ties and mutual understanding between China and these countries. part of a broader education-based diplomacy strategy which combines the development of talent with the strengthening of international influence.

However, self-funded international students said they had limited access to institutional support, travel grants and career resources compared to their government-sponsored peers, creating a two-tier system.

Ambiguity and self-censorship

In addition to administrative barriers, many students described an academic environment in which certain topics were “off limits” without clear guidelines. “We are often discouraged from asking questions in class because we are not sure what is politically acceptable,” said one European international relations student.

Different disciplines seem to have different boundaries. Science, technology, engineering and mathematics students reported, for example, limited access to international genomics and biotechnology databases; Sociology students faced extended vetting processes or informal bans on politically sensitive topics.

One European student told me that as part of an assignment they wanted to compare Taiwanese and mainland media narratives, their advisor advised them to avoid “sensitive language,” including terms like “independence” and “resistance.”