Consumer confidence fell for the third month in a row in October, hitting its lowest level since April, when President Trump's tariff announcements sent shockwaves through the economy.
last index read from The Conference Board showed a slight decline of 1.0 points month-over-month in October to 94.6 as consumer views of current business and labor conditions improved slightly. However, short-term expectations for earnings, business and labor market conditions weakened by 2.9 points and continued to remain below the threshold “that typically signals a coming recession,” The Conference Board said.
Confidence among consumers also varied by income level, another indication K-shaped economy.
“Consumer confidence moved sideways in October, down only slightly from the upwardly revised September level,” Stephanie Guichard, senior economist for global indicators at The Conference Board, said in a statement.
“Consumers' views on current business conditions have gradually improved, and their assessment of current job availability has improved for the first time since December 2024,” Guichard added. “On the other hand, all three components of the expectations index weakened slightly. Consumers were slightly more pessimistic about future job availability and future business conditions, while optimism about future earnings fell slightly.”
Consumers were indeed more wary about the future of the job market in October, with 15.8% expecting more jobs to be available in six months, down from the 16.6% level seen in September.
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Private data published payroll processor ADP Tuesday suggested that the labor market may have shown signs of a “sluggish recovery” in October. But this reading takes place in the background layoff announcements from major companies including Amazon and UPS.
The Conference Board data comes amid a virtual lack of official indicators of the state of the US economy due to the government shutdown. Employment data for September has not yet been published. Weak August figures and October employment data likely won't come out until next Friday. Although inflation data for September was published last week behind schedule, turned out to be slightly better than analysts expectedData for October has not yet been collected.
Emma Åkerman is a Yahoo Finance reporter covering economics and labor issues. You can contact her at [email protected].
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