Against a backdrop of mountains and dense forest, a 745-foot crane rises into the sky, lifting drill pipes into Floregny's No. 18 well. It is located in one of Colombia's most promising exploration areas, where oil and gas reserves are estimated at 250 million barrels – about the same as Colombia consumes per year.
But if President Gustavo Petro's dream comes true, it could be one of the last things to happen in Colombia.
Colombia's first openly left-wing president since taking office in 2022 has laid out an ambitious green agenda. Mr. Petr is the first leader of a major oil-producing country to suspend new fossil fuel exploration contracts (though existing contracts remain in place). He raised taxes on the country's oil and coal companies, promising to increase investment in renewable energy projects such as wind and solar farms and cut bureaucracy that can hamper the deployment of renewable energy.
Why did we write this
President Gustavo Petro is racing to make Colombia green. But his energy program highlights the messy trade-offs that are necessary when fossil fuels remain key to the economy.
His government is pushing Congress to ban fracking, and Ecopetrol, the state-owned oil and gas company, has committed to net-zero emissions by 2050 – the first such company in Latin America to set that goal.
But Colombia has faced challenges and contradictions as it implements its environmental plan, from threats to its energy security to environmental trade-offs in importing natural gas.
As the idea of going green becomes more popular in Latin America, resource-rich countries like Colombia are finding that pursuing big ideas can conflict with other important goals, such as social spending or maintaining financial stability. Colombia has one of the largest budget deficits in the region, and oil and coal revenues continue to play a central role in financing the budget, including Mr. Petro's plans to raise pensions and expand education and health programs.
Mr Petro's proposal for a rapid energy transition is being closely watched by political leaders and investors across the region. Success could make Colombia a model, but failure could leave a lasting mark on both Colombia's environment and finances.
“Petro is a poster child for what not to do if you care about the environment,” says Ricardo Hausmann, founder of the Growth Lab at Harvard University's John F. Kennedy School of Government. Until global demand for fossil fuels changes, Mr. Petro's efforts will be in vain, he said.
Growing gas problem
Colombia's oil and gas sector has shrunk since its peak in the early 2010s, but it continues to account for about a fifth of the country's exports and about 10% of gross domestic product. In the state of Casanare, where Floregni's well no. 18 is located, the oil industry accounted for 82% of GDP in 1999, but by 2023 this share had halved.
Once a regional leader in gasification (70% of households cook with gas, which is cleaner and healthier than wood), Colombia is now forced to import gas. For the first time in nearly half a century, the country turned to imports last year to meet domestic and industrial demand.
Experts say Petro's ban on new oil and gas exploration contracts and a pending ban on fracking in Colombia could further undermine Colombia's energy security – and its environmental health. Without enough gas, Colombians are turning to dirtier alternatives such as carbon or wood, accelerating deforestation, says Esteban Angel, an energy expert at Wood Mackenzie, an energy consulting firm.
To make Colombia carbon neutral by 2050, Mr. Petr is betting on renewable energy. His government has opened several solar parks and launched Colombia Solar, a program to equip low-income households with solar panels.
But renewable energy is expensive, and Colombia's budget deficit is growing. Some projects are constrained by environmental licensing requirements and prior consultation with local communities, which do not necessarily support proposed wind and solar initiatives.
With domestic gas supplies dwindling and Mr. Petro planning to stop exploring new sources, the president has floated the idea of importing gas from Qatar as a temporary solution to the dilemma. The gas can cost three times more than local supplies and emits 50% more carbon dioxide because imported gas must be liquefied, transported halfway around the world and then regasified, Mr. Angel said.
“It's not smart to just exploit existing reserves more aggressively,” says Francisco Monaldi, director of the Latin American energy program at Rice University's Baker Institute, who says Colombia's plan is short-sighted. He says if Mr Petro wants to protect the climate, he should instead try to meet demand for fossil fuels, for example by ending Colombia's oil subsidies and introducing a carbon tax.
Ricardo Roa, president of Ecopetrol, says the current administration's goal “is to put natural gas at the center of the energy transition as the fuel for the energy transition.” But Susana Muhamad, Colombia's former environment minister, says this misses the point of the transition to a green economy. “Gas is a fossil fuel. Presenting it as something else is greenwashing.” According to her, the era of fossil fuels must end.
Regional wrestling
Colombia's struggle to implement its green agenda is reflected throughout the region.
Brazil will host the COP30 climate summit in November to accelerate the energy transition. But in its current five-year plan, Petrobras, Brazil's state oil and gas company, has allocated more than 70% of investment to new oil exploration, with only 15% going to the energy transition.
In August 2023, Ecuador held a historic referendum that voted to stop oil drilling in Yasuní National Park, a biodiversity-rich region of the Amazon home to indigenous communities. The move alarmed activists, but nearly two years later, oil drilling didn't stop and few of the approximately 240 wells in the block were capped.
Last year, Mexicans elected president Claudia Sheinbaum Pardo, an environmental engineer and former mayor of Mexico City known for her environmental agenda. However, it faces huge debt from state oil company Pemex and a power grid that cannot meet Mexico's growing energy needs. It is doubling down on oil and gas exploration efforts, hoping to increase Pemex's oil output by nearly a third by 2030.
Around the world, continued demand for fossil fuels is making it difficult for leaders to advance their own energy transition. Moreover, according to Dr. Houseman, Mr. Petro's desire to reduce carbon dioxide emissions in his country is not helping to reduce emissions in the world. “If a country unilaterally cuts production, this gives OPEC more room to increase its own production. [production]“,” he says. “A reduction in oil production in one country does not lead to a reduction in global oil production.”
