Six teams still qualify for the ACC Championship – Duke, Georgia Tech, Miami, Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Four more are still in contention to win the Big 12 (Arizona State, BYU, Texas Tech and Utah).
And don't forget, Michigan can still make it to the Big Ten title game.
The bubble is bursting with lingering hope heading into the final week of the regular season. With only Rivalry Week and the conference championship games remaining, the picture could still change radically as teams bolster their resumes — or disappear entirely.
However, little, if any, change is expected in Tuesday night's fourth of six College Football Playoff Selection Committee rankings (7 p.m. ET/ESPN). Eleven of the committee's top 12 teams won on Saturday, with 10 of those wins coming by double digits. While latest top 12 forecasts remained unchanged, the teams in the bubble shifted.
Bubble Watch reflects what we've learned from the committee so far, as well as historical knowledge of what this means for teams clinging to hope. Teams with I would be in The status below is in this week's table based on the committee's third ranking. For each Power 4 conference, we've also listed Last team in And First command output. These are true bubble teams circling around inclusivity. Tag commands Still in the mix were not excluded, but they have a job or need help. The team that Outside will have to wait until next year.
The conferences below are listed in order of the number of applications they will receive, from largest to smallest based on forecast for this week. Stay tuned to the selection show for an updated version that will include the committee's final 25 best projects.
Go to the conference:
ACC | Big 12 | Big Ten
SEC | Independent | Group of 5 people
bracket
SEC
Will be: Alabama, Georgia, Oklahoma, Ole Miss, Texas A&M.
Last team in: Alabama. The Tide can either clinch a spot in the SEC championship by beating Auburn in the Iron Bowl or miss the playoffs entirely by losing to their rival. The debate will begin if Alabama finishes second in the SEC with three losses. The Tide played the ninth-toughest schedule in the country, according to ESPN Analytics, and their resume will only improve if they take on a top-five opponent in the SEC Championship Game. However, a third loss, even in a close game against a top-5 team, could put Alabama in a precarious position in the top 12, where it faces elimination to make room for a guaranteed conference champion – or second-team in the Big 12.
First team eliminated: Vanderbilt. The Commodores can maintain the status quo this week, meaning that, in 14th place, they still have a strong chance of winning the overall title. Bolstering their resume with a win over a ranked player from Tennessee is the first step, but they'll also need a few upsets ahead of them to be seriously considered. It's not out of the question, as Miami could lose to Pitt, Oklahoma could suffer a third loss to LSU, Alabama could lose the Iron Bowl. However, none of this matters without a win in Knoxville.
Still in development: No.
Out: Arkansas, Auburn, Florida, Kentucky, LSU, Mississippi State, Missouri, South Carolina, Tennessee, Texas.
Big Ten
Will be: Indiana, Ohio, Oregon.
Last team in: Oregon. With the win over USC, Oregon eliminated the biggest threat to its playoff spot in the Big Ten and further cemented its place in the top ten. He might even have a chance to pass Ole Miss this week. Oregon now has an 18% chance of making the Big Ten title game, according to ESPN Analytics, but it needs to beat Washington AND it needs Michigan to beat Ohio State.
First team elimination: Michigan. The Wolverines are here because they can reach the Big Ten Championship Game by beating Ohio State AND losing to Indiana OR Oregon. Michigan no longer has to worry about a loss to USC as the Trojans have three losses and will likely fall behind Michigan in the latest rankings. However, a loss to Oklahoma would likely have left them behind the Sooners overall if they had both finished with the same record. However, no one in the country would have a better win than Michigan if it beat the Buckeyes for the fifth straight season.
Still in development: No.
Out: Illinois, Iowa, Maryland, Michigan State, Minnesota, Nebraska, Northwestern, Penn State, Purdue, Rutgers, UCLA, USC, Washington, Wisconsin.
Big 12
Will participate: Texas Tech
Last team in: Texas Tech. The Red Raiders can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win over West Virginia. As long as Texas Tech can do that, it should be a lock for the CFP – win or lose in the Big 12 Championship. It would be both stunning and difficult for the committee to justify giving up Texas Tech if its second loss was to a top-11 team BYU that it beat easily in the regular season. In this scenario, the Red Raiders would be the only team capable of earning a regular-season win over the eventual Big 12 champions.
First team out: BYU. The Cougars can clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game with a home win over UCF on Saturday. They would have a CFP lock with the Big 12 title, but a loss would likely knock them out of the bracket because they are already in a precarious position and would have lost to the same team twice. They need a few upsets over them to remain among the second-place finishers in the Big 12 with two losses.
Still on the fence: Arizona State, Utah. ASU can earn a spot in the Big 12 title game with a win over Arizona AND a loss to BYU OR a win AND losses to Texas Tech and Utah. The Utes will advance to the Big 12 title game if they beat Kansas AND win against BYU and Arizona State AND lose to Texas Tech.
Out: Arizona, Baylor, Cincinnati, Colorado, Houston, Iowa State, Kansas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, TCU, UCF, West Virginia.
ACC
Will be in: Miami
Last team in: Miami. Miami now has a 13% chance of reaching the ACC title game, third-best in the league behind SMU and Virginia, which are above 80%. This means their best chance to reach the CFP remains through the wide bet. It's imperative that they beat Pitt on Saturday, and it would help if the committee evaluated the Panthers tonight. The Canes have a strong case this week to knock Utah out of 12th place after beating Virginia Tech for their third straight win by at least 17 points. It was Miami's first road win outside of its home state, which is what the committee had been waiting for. Miami's win over Notre Dame remains one of the best in the country, but until the Canes move closer to the Irish in the rankings and join them in the same pool of teams the group votes for, they will likely remain behind the Irish.
First team eliminated: Virginia. Of all the convoluted scenarios left in the ACC, this isn't one of them: If Virginia beats rival Virginia Tech on Saturday, the Cavaliers will earn a berth in the conference title game. It will be interesting to see if the committee evaluates a three-loss SMU tonight. The Mustangs have the best chance of making the ACC Championship (86%), followed by Virginia (81%) after Week 13, but SMU has lost to Baylor, TCU and Wake Forest, the latter of which are ranked above .500. If SMU wins at California on Saturday, the Mustangs will earn a spot in the ACC title game. Virginia was the ACC's second-ranked team behind fourth-ranked Miami, and the Cavaliers had a bye.
Still on the roster: Duke, Georgia Tech, Pitt, SMU.. You can find your confusing scenarios here. Pitt could make the ACC Championship with a win AND a loss to SMU OR UVA. Duke can enter with a win and a loss to two of the next three teams: Pitt, SMU and Virginia. Georgia Tech needs so much that it might want to find a church instead of Georgia.
Out: Boston College, Cal, Clemson, Florida State, Louisville, North Carolina, NC State, Stanford, Syracuse, Virginia Tech, Wake Forest.
Independent
Would be in: Our Lady. The Irish do everything right: they win and look good doing it. If they can seal the deal with a relatively easy win over Stanford, Notre Dame will be in the familiar position of waiting and watching as the conference championship games unfold and perhaps change the picture. Notre Dame fans should keep a close eye on the SEC and Big 12 title games.
Group of 5 people
Will be: Tulane. This is where the committee will likely continue to differ from the computers, which say James Madison (57%) and North Texas (54.4%) have the best chance to make the playoffs. JMU's schedule currently ranks 123rd and North Texas is 127th, keeping both of them in the committee room. Tulane is ranked 73rd with wins over Duke and Northwestern. The 24th-ranked Green Wave will likely retain its spot as the committee's top-ranked team in Group 5 this week after a 37-13 win at Temple, its largest margin of victory this season.
Still on the list: East Carolina, James Madison, Navy, North Texas, South Florida. JMU clinched the East Division and a spot in the Sun Belt Conference championship. He will face the winner of Southern Miss vs. Troy. Five teams from the Americas still qualify for the conference championship game, and there are multiple tiebreaker scenarios. Tulane has one of the most direct paths. It could have won if it had been the highest-ranked American team in the CFP. North Texas will clinch the spot with a win if Navy doesn't move past Tulane and North Texas in the CFP rankings on Tuesday. Navy could clinch the spot with a win AND a loss to Tulane OR North Texas.
bracket
Based on forecast for this weeksowing will be:
First round bye
No. 1 Ohio State (Big Ten Champion)
No. 2 Indiana
#3 Texas A&M (SEC champion)
No. 4 Georgia
First round games
On campus, December 19 and 20.
No. 12 Tulane (American champion) and No. 5 Texas Tech (Big 12 champion)
No. 11 Miami (ACC champion) and No. 6 Ole Miss
No. 10 Alabama and No. 7 Oregon
No. 9 Notre Dame and No. 8 Oklahoma
Quarterfinal games
At the Goodyear Cotton Bowl, Capital One Orange Bowl and Rose Bowl presented by Prudential and Allstate Sugar Bowl on December 31st and January 1st.
No. 12 Tulane/No. No. 5 Texas Tech vs. No. 4 Georgia
No. 11 Miami/No. No. 6 winner Ole Miss vs. No. 3 Texas A&M
No. 10 Alabama / No. 10 No. 7 Oregon State vs. No. 2 Indiana
No. 9 Notre Dame / No. 9 No. 8 Oklahoma vs. No. 1 Ohio State
