WASHINGTON — In a highly confidential CIA assessment prepared at the request of the White House, President Trump warned of wider conflict in Venezuela if he supports the country's democratic opposition when he becomes president. Nicolas Maduro was overthrownA person familiar with the situation told The Times.
The assessment was a carefully crafted product of the CIA, prepared at the request of senior policymakers before Trump decided whether to authorize Operation Absolute Resolve, the stunning American mission that took Maduro and his wife from their bedroom in Caracas over the weekend.
In announcing the results of the operation on Sunday, Trump surprised the alarmed Venezuelan public by rushing to dismiss the leadership of the democratic opposition led by Maria Corina Machadowinner of last year's Nobel Peace Prize and Edmundo Gonzalez Urrutiathe opposition candidate who won the 2024 presidential election, which was ultimately stolen by Maduro.
Instead, Trump said his administration was working with Maduro's handpicked Vice President Delcy Rodriguez, who has since been named the country's interim president. The rest of Maduro's government remains in place.
Supporting the opposition would likely require U.S. military support, as Venezuela's military is still controlled by Maduro loyalists unwilling to relinquish power.
The second official said the administration was seeking to avoid one of the cardinal mistakes of the Iraq invasion, when the Bush administration ordered supporters of ousted Saddam Hussein's party to be expelled from the country's interim government. This solution, known as de-Baathificationprompted those in charge of Iraq's weapons stockpile to offer armed resistance to the US campaign.
The CIA product was not an assessment that was circulated among the 18 government agencies that make up the US intelligence community, whose head, Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard, was largely absent from discussions – and which I can’t comment on the operation yetdespite the fact that CIA operatives were in danger before and during the weekend mission.
The core team working on “Inherent Resolve” included Homeland Security Adviser Stephen Miller, Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth, Secretary of State Marco Rubio, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dan Cain and CIA Director John Ratcliffe, who met regularly over several months, sometimes daily, the source added.
The existence of a CIA assessment was first reported by the Wall Street Journal.
There were indications that Trump's team was in contact with Rodriguez ahead of the operation, although the president has denied that his administration notified Rodriguez in advance of Maduro's resignation.
“There are a number of unanswered questions,” said Evan Ellis, who spent the first Trump term planning State Department policy on Latin America, the Caribbean and international drug relations. “Perhaps there was a cynical calculation that they could be worked with.”
Experts note that Rodriguez served as a liaison to the Biden administration and also liaised with Richard Grenell, a top Trump aide who heads the Kennedy Center, early in Trump's second term as he tested outreach to Caracas.
While several other senior officials in his government were named in the federal indictment brought against Maduro after his arrest, Rodriguez was notably not named.
Rodriguez was sworn in as Venezuela's interim president on Monday in a ceremony attended by diplomats from Russia, China and Iran. Publicly, the leader made controversial statements, simultaneously promising to prevent Venezuela from becoming a colonial outpost of the American empire, and also proposing to establish new cooperative relations with Washington.
“Of course, for political reasons, Delcy Rodriguez can't say, 'I made a deal with Trump and we're going to stop the revolution now and start working with the United States,'” Ellis said.
“This is not about democracy,” he said. “The point is that he doesn’t want to work with Maduro.”
In an interview with Fox News on Monday, Machado said she had not yet been able to speak with Trump following the US operation over the weekend, but she hoped to do so soon, offering to share her Nobel Peace Prize with him as a gesture of gratitude. Trump has repeatedly positioned himself as a worthy recipient of the award.
“What he has done is historic,” said Machado, who vowed to return to the country after hiding abroad after receiving the prize in Oslo last month.
“This is a huge step,” she added, “towards a democratic transition.”
