China-Japan diplomatic feud over Taiwan issue escalates : NPR

SEOUL – The biggest feud between Japan and China in more than a decade appears to be escalating as China tries to diplomatically isolate Japan as punishment for the actions of Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi. comments last month about Japan's possible involvement in the conflict over Taiwan.

There is no end in sight to this quarrel, and neither side is going to give up.

In recent weeks, China has tried to convince US leaders United Kingdom And France support your position. It argues that “the return of Taiwan to China is an integral part of the post-war international order,” as Chinese leader Xi Jinping told President Trump on November 24. phone call. Trump, meanwhile, made no mention of the Taiwan issue on social media. mail about the call.

The diplomatic push is only part of a coordinated campaign using political, economic and cultural tools. China sent two letters protest at the UN. It stopped seafood imports from Japan, advised Chinese citizens not to travel there, and canceled film screenings and concerts.

Experts say the context of Takaichi's remarks is key to understanding the Sino-Japanese spat.

Japan's constitution prohibits it from waging war. But the safety of 2015 legislation allows it to use its military forces in self-defense in response to an armed attack on Japan or an attack on an ally (it has only one formal ally, the United States) that poses an existential threat to Japan. The US and Japan signed a mutual defense treaty in 1960.

CLARITY OF LEGISLATIVE OVERSIGHT VS. STRATEGIC UNCERTAINTY

The Japanese prime minister and cabinet have greater discretion to decide what constitutes an existential threat, but they need parliamentary approval.

During a parliamentary budget committee hearing on November 7, opposition lawmaker Katsuya Okada asked Takaichi under what circumstances a Chinese naval blockade of Taiwan could threaten Japan's survival. Takaichi responded that a blockade involving Chinese warships could pose such a threat.

“Your answer does not narrowly define an existential threat,” Okada shot back. “This gives the government very broad powers. That's why I'm concerned.”

The United States, China and Japan are ambivalent about how they might handle a potential conflict over Taiwan. But in this case, legislators sought clarity and tried to squeeze Takaichi so as not to drag Japan into an unnecessary conflict.

“I think deep down she [Takaichi] she should have realized that she made a mistake. And this is a very costly mistake,” says Zhou Boa senior fellow at the Center for International Security and Strategy at Tsinghua University in Beijing and a former senior colonel in the People's Liberation Army.

Since then, Takaichi has promised not to discuss any hypothetical scenarios for Taiwan's development. But she defended herself in Parliament last week, saying that while she could tread carefully, she wanted to be candid.

“If I had simply repeated the government's previous position over and over again, the budget committee meeting might have been suspended,” she said, but “I was asked to give specific examples and I tried to answer truthfully.”

TAKAICHI WAS NOT ALONE

Takaichi is not the only leader who has deviated from the script and appears to be at odds with the policy of strategic ambiguity.

President Joe Biden has done this at least four times. once. Each time, the White House walked back its remarks, insisting there had been no change in policy.

So why did China launch a pressure campaign against Japan and not the US?

University of Tokyo political scientist and China expert Akio Takahara offers one possible explanation.

“Why? Because they think America is stronger and they don't want to upset the United States.”

But if the US is ambivalent about its commitment to defending Taiwan, can Japan defend Taiwan on its own?

This is precisely the troubling implication of Takaichi's remarks, argues Zhou Bo of Tsinghua University.

“Given the disparity in military power between China and Japan, this is simply not possible for Japan. So this time we have an interesting situation: the tail is wagging the dog.”

CYCLES IN JAPAN-CHINESE RELATIONS

Another important aspect of the context, according to Akio Takahara, is that Japan-China relations have had many ups and downs, and so he believes ties will eventually recover.

He adds that in some ways, China's response to Japan's alleged abuses is milder than before.

“This time they are not allowing any demonstrations,” he notes, “and they are not allowing a boycott of Japanese products.”

This did not happen in 2012. Japan has acquired the disputed Diaoyu Islands, as China calls them, or Senkaku in Japanese, from a private owner.

Protesters took to the streets in more than 100 cities in China. Today, the Chinese government is less tolerant of demonstrations, especially those that could quickly turn against it.

Trump said his relationship with Takaichi is good, but he did not mention the dispute with China or voice support for Takaichi.

The Japanese government has rejected reports that Trump advised Takahashi not to escalate hostility with Japan.

JAPAN FEARS BETRAYAL

But some Japanese are concerned that Trump could strike a deal with China that would sell out Taiwan and Japan.

“If this is some kind of deal to sell Taiwan, it will not benefit Japan, South Korea or the United States,” Takahara says. “We don’t know what Trump will say tomorrow,” he adds. “So we are concerned. But what can we do?

For now, Beijing continues to insist that Prime Minister Takaichi take back her words. She refused to do so, but said she was open to negotiations with Beijing. But Zhou Bo says the Taiwan issue is too important for China to compromise.

“It includes so many things: honor, dignity” and “century of humiliation“, during which the imperial powers of the 19th century divided China into spheres of influence.

“China can't just back down,” Zhou says, “so the ball is in the Japanese court.”

In the past, experts say, China has resolved disputes with governments, including South Korea, Australia And Philippines to fester until a new administration comes in and makes appeasing gestures.

But Takaichi only took office last month, and depending on her political fortunes, the wait for her departure could be a long time.