The center-left D66 party was leading in Wednesday's parliamentary elections in the Netherlands, according to an initial exit poll conducted by Ipsos I&O.
Nearby is the far-right PVV party led by Geert Wilders, indicating that any party could still be the largest party.
Ipsos said D66 would win 27 seats in the 150-seat House of Representatives, with 25 going to the PVV.
In the Dutch system, where no single party receives an absolute majority, a combination of parties would need 76 seats to be able to form a government.
This is a significant shift from the 2023 elections, in which Geert Wilders' far-right Party for Freedom (PVV) won a landslide victory with 37 seats, followed by the Left Labor Party (GL-PvdA) and the conservative People's Party for Freedom and Democracy (VVD) with 25 and 20 seats respectively.
People stand in the voting booths at De Duif Church in Amsterdam, October 29, 2025. – AP Photo
The VVD is projected to win 23 seats, while the GL-PvdA is projected to win a less than expected 20 seats.
While the Ipsos exit poll is a preliminary measure that is subject to change, its data has been extremely reliable in past elections. In 2023, Ipsos predicted 35 seats for PVV, a deviation of just 1.2%.
For the remaining batches, the largest deviation from the final results was only 0.5%.
Ipsos predicts voter turnout will be slightly lower than in 2023. By 7:45 p.m., midterm turnout was 65%, slightly lower than the 66% recorded at the same time in the previous election. Overall turnout in 2023 was 77.7%.
This means that the final results may vary by one to three places, and rarely more. With only two places difference between D66 and PVV, the final result remains open.
In the final stages of the election campaign, the centre-left D66 party led by Rob Jetten saw a sudden surge in opinion polls, shooting to the top just days before election day after falling behind the PVV, GL-PvdA and CDA in initial forecasts.
It also marks a significant comeback for the D66 party, which suffered heavy losses, winning just nine seats in 2023, down from 24 in 2021.
Rob Jetten, leader of the center-left D66 party, speaks to the media after voting at a polling station in The Hague, October 29, 2025. – AP Photo
The GL-PvdA, led by former European Commission vice-president Frans Timmermans, maintained a strong position in opinion polls and did not deviate much from its 2023 results, when the party won 25 seats.
Newcomer Henri Bontenbal, leader of the Christian Democratic CDA party, has emerged as a popular contender for prime minister and is seen as a more moderate bridge between left and right. His party will win 19 seats.
His program of “decency and respect” and “getting back to work” – referring to the stalemate that ensued after the previous administration collapsed in June over a dispute over migration just a year after it took office – appear to have resonated with voters.
PVV leader Wilders again campaigned vigorously to curb illegal immigration, leading to his victory in 2023. This much-controversial issue also led to the collapse of the outgoing government, with Wilders and his party leaving the four-party coalition.
Infighting between parties in the latest coalition has led to criticism that the Netherlands, long a prominent member of the European Union, was sometimes seen as not fully engaging with the continent, as it was under longtime leader Mark Rutte, who is now NATO secretary general.
A woman votes at Red Light Jazz Radio, which operates as a polling station during the general election in Amsterdam, October 29, 2025. – AP Photo
Exit polls late Wednesday signal a difficult road ahead for coalition talks. Although Wilders has lost seats since the 2023 elections, his party will retain a significant bloc.
Other smaller far-right parties also made significant gains: JA21 rose from one to nine seats in the exit poll, and the Forum for Democracy (FvD) was expected to win six seats instead of three.
But the prospect of a role for the far right in government remains unclear.
D66, GL-PvdA and CDA have ruled out a far-right rule, arguing that his decision to torpedo the outgoing coalition highlighted Wilders as an unreliable partner.
Wilders rejects arguments that he has failed to deliver on his 2023 election promises despite being the largest party in parliament, and blames other parties for thwarting his plans.
