Canada
will likely be higher than the government's headline numbers suggest due to a couple of one-time programs Ottawa plans to implement in the coming years.
In accordance with the new immigration goals that were
on Tuesday,
380,000 permanent residents annually from 2026 to 2028. The targets are similar to those proposed last year as part of the Immigration Levels Plan.
—
395,000 permanent residents in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
However, in addition to the annual target of 380,000 people, Canada aims to provide permanent residence to 33,000 people.
and 115,000 people will be classified as “protected persons in Canada” over the next three years, according to the 2025 budget.
These groups are already living in Canada, and providing them with permanent residence
—
which ultimately opens the path to citizenship
—
will not increase
total population of the country
. However, adding them to the title will significantly increase
Annual Canada Immigration Goals
by at least 148,000 over three years.
Remy Larivière, a spokesman for Immigration, Refugees and Citizenship Canada, confirmed in a statement that the one-time programs would be “in addition to target levels.”
The 33,000 work permit holders will be workers who are “already firmly rooted in their communities,” including those “contributing to key industries in rural areas,” Lariviere said.
The 115,000 people in the protected persons group are not like foreign students or foreign workers who hold temporary permits with a limited validity period, an IRCC spokesman said. “Prioritizing their admission as permanent residents over the next two years will ensure that those who truly need Canada's protection receive recognition of their permanent status,” Larivière said.
Excluding these figures from the annual target of 380,000 people, which already includes people in four categories.
—
economic, family, refugee and humanitarian
—
surprised some analysts.
“I can't understand why they're not in the plan if the plan is supposed to be accurate,” said Steven Merrens, an immigration lawyer and partner of Larley Rosenberg. “This completely changes the overall number.”
Bank of Nova Scotia economist Rebecca Young said a key value of the immigration plan is transparency in the numbers so communities can plan. “In any case, it is important to clarify these details,” she said.
Immigration has traditionally played a key role in
. As such, Ottawa announces an annual tier plan that provides forward-looking immigration targets for the next three years. This plan provides guidance to the federal government.
For most of the past decade, Canada's annual immigration targets have been either stable or increasing slightly. For example, targets ranged from 250,000 to 350,000 new recruits each year between 2015 and 2022.
However, starting in 2023, targets jumped to 450,000-500,000 due to labor shortages following the pandemic that left the country struggling to fill hundreds of thousands of jobs.
But as the number of available jobs dwindles and concerns about the housing crisis grow, the federal government decided in 2024 to halt population growth and cut permanent residency targets to 395,000 in 2025, 380,000 in 2026 and 365,000 in 2027.
Ottawa's immigration plans this year also include targets for temporary residents, including international students and workers. The number of people arriving under this category will fall from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026 and to 370,000 in 2027 and 2028.
The move is part of the federal government's goal to reduce the share of temporary residents from about 7.5 percent to five percent of the total population. In absolute numbers, Ottawa aims to admit 155,000 students in 2026, 150,000 in 2027 and 2028. The remaining temporary residents will be mainly foreign workers.
The decision to focus more on workers rather than students may be the best deal for the Canadian economy in the near future, but it could “damage the future pipeline of talent,” said Cynthia Leach, an economist at the Royal Bank of Canada.
Scotiabank's Young said the weak economy and lack of jobs mean the government has a “window” right now to reach its five percent target by reducing student numbers.
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