If the ads are any indication, Proposition 50 offers Californians a stark choice: “Stick with Trump” or “throw away the Constitution” in a Democratic power grab.
And like so much else in 2025, Trump looks set to be the driving force.
Even with the kind of incendiary campaigning that California is accustomed to, Proposition 50 featured sharp attacks aimed at cutting through the complex, esoteric issue of congressional redistricting. It all comes down to a basic fact: This is a Democratic-led measure aimed at reconfiguring California's congressional districts to help their party win control of the U.S. House of Representatives in 2026 and crush President Trump's efforts to keep Republicans in power through similar means in other states.
For now, the anti-Trump message preached by Proposition 50 supporters, led by Gov. Gavin Newsom and other leading Democrats, appears to be most effective.
Supporters of this proposal significantly surpassed their rivals and Proposition 50, one of the most expensive ballot measures in state history, leading in the polls.
“Anytime you can take an issue and personalize it, you have an advantage. In this case, the 50ers can do everything they can to stop Donald Trump,” said former legislative leader and state GOP Chairman Jim Brulte.
Adding to the drama are the roles of two political and cultural icons who have emerged as leaders of each side: former President Obama for and former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger against, both saying the very essence of democracy is at stake.
Schwarzenegger and the two main committees opposing Proposition 50 focused on the ethical and moral imperative of maintaining an independent redistricting commission. In 2010, Californians voted to create a commission that would draw state congressional district boundaries after each census to ensure fair representation of all state residents.
This is not a political ideal that can be easily explained in a 30-section TV ad or an Instagram post.
Redistricting is a “complicated issue,” Brulte said, but he noted that “the other side bears the burden of trying to explain what the initiative actually does, while the yes side gets to use cheat sheets. [that] it’s about stopping Trump, which is a much easier way.”
Supporters on both sides agree.
“The Yes side quickly seized on anti-Trump messaging and ended the campaign with direct calls for leadership,” said Jamie Fisfis, a political strategist who has worked on many GOP congressional campaigns in California. “The partisanship and awareness behind the measure meant it was unlikely to sag under the weight of negative publicity, as is often the case with other initiatives. It was a turnout game.”
Obama, in ads that aired during the World Series and NFL games, warned that “democracy will be on the ballot on November 4th” and urged voters to support Proposition 50. In ads for the most well-funded committee opposing the proposal, Schwarzenegger said opposition to ballot measures was critical to ensuring citizens were not captured by elected officials.
“The Constitution does not begin with the words “We the Politicians.” It all starts with “We the people,” Schwarzenegger told USC students in mid-September, a speech taken from an anti-Proposition 50 ad. “Democracy—we have to defend it, and we have to go and fight for it.”
California's Democratic-led Legislature voted in August to introduce a redistricting proposal in the November election that would likely boost their position in Congress. The measure, proposed by Newsom, was an attempt to counter Trump's efforts to increase the number of GOP members in the House of Representatives from Texas and other GOP-led states.
The Republican Party holds a slight advantage in the House of Representatives, and next year's elections will determine which party controls the body during Trump's final two years in office – and whether he can push his agenda or face investigations and possible impeachment.
Notably absent from California's fight over Proposition 50 is the man who started it: Trump.
The decision by opponents of the proposal not to highlight Trump is not surprising given the president's deep unpopularity among Californians. More than two-thirds of the state's likely voters disapproved of his performance as president in late October, according to a Public Policy Institute of California poll.
Trump, however, urged California voters not to mail ballots or vote early, falsely claiming in a social media post that both voting methods were “unfair.”
Some California Republican Party leaders feared Trump's announcement would suppress the Republican vote.
In recent days, the California Republican Party has sent mailers to registered Republicans shaming them for not voting. “Your neighbors are watching,” reads the post, which shows a woman looking through binoculars. “Don’t let your neighbors down, they’ll find out!”
Tuesday's election will cost state taxpayers nearly $300 million. And it is unclear whether the result will affect control of the House of Representatives due to multiple redistricting attempts in other states.
But some Democrats are concerned about how much money is being spent on efforts that may not change the partisan makeup of Congress.
Joanna Mosca, who served in the Obama administration, called Proposition 50 “disappointing.”
“I just wish we could spend money on solving the state's problems if we could find a way to make the state accessible to people,” she said. “Gavin has found what works for Gavin. And that is resistance to Trump.”
Newsom's anti-Trump efforts seen as foundational argument if he runs for president in 2028which he admitted as he thought about it.
Proposition 50 has also become a platform for other politicians potentially planning to run for California governor in 2026, Sen. Alex Padilla and billionaires Rick Caruso and Tom Steyer.
The situation is changing, and there is no clear leader.
Padilla, who was thrown to the ground in Los Angeles as he tried to question Homeland Security Secretary Kristi Noem about the Trump administration's immigration policies, has featured prominently in television commercials promoting Proposition 50. Steyer, a longtime Democratic Party donor who briefly ran for president in 2020, raised eyebrows as the only speaker in his second television ad. Caruso, who ran unsuccessfully against Karen Bass in the 2022 Los Angeles mayoral election and is reportedly considering a new political campaign, recently sent out glossy mailers to voters in support of Proposition 50.
Steyer has pledged $12 million to support Proposition 50. His initial ad, which shows a Trump impersonator growing increasingly angry as news reports show the ballot passing, first aired on “Jimmy Kimmel Live!” Steyer's second ad focused entirely on him, sparking speculation about a potential run for governor next year.
Commercials that contradict the proposal have aired less frequently and, in recent days, have disappeared from television altogether.
“The 'yes' side had the advantage of putting the issue before voters as a referendum on Trump,” said Rob Stutzman, a GOP strategist who worked for Schwarzenegger but was not involved in any of the Proposition 50 campaigns. “Asking people to go to the polls to save a government commission is not a rallying cry.”
