There's good reason to believe that Black Friday, as a holiday retail hub, is losing its luster. Although the day is not over yet, it is already showing serious signs of wear and tear.
According to the data, in 2025, only 20% of consumers plan to start holiday shopping on Black Friday weekend, with 59% starting early and 22% shopping after or at the last minute. cross-channel marketing platform Cordial.
“The dominance of Black Friday has waned,” said Rob Garf, head of strategy and analytics at Cordial. Retailers hoping for a quick price increase often find themselves caught up in a game of “discount chicken,” waiting for consumers to act just as consumers wait for deeper price cuts. Data tells us that the “Black Friday blitz” strategy is out of step with how most consumers shop today.
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Several factors led to Black Friday on your knees in 2025. Here's a photo.
AI takes the reins
According to global traffic data provider DatosAI-driven discoveries are growing rapidly. “The share of visits from AI chat platforms has nearly doubled year-over-year (from 1-4% in 2024 to 5-8% in 2025),” the company said in a new report. “More than 55% of AI-generated suggestions leading to Amazon contained purchase intent, showing that predictive conversational search is already influencing purchasing decisions.”
Dynamic pricing has exploded
Retail experts say dynamic pricing and early “soft launch” discounts are now replacing one-day discounts.
“The rise of e-commerce has made deals and discounts more accessible and routine, leading to a dampening of big events like Black Friday,” said Greg Zakovich, retail analyst at Omnisend. “With shoppers no longer having to wait for a specific day to take advantage of sales, their purchases have become spread out throughout the season.”
Some retailers may see this as a negative, but Zakovich believes the glass is half full. “One benefit is that because purchases are spread out, consumers are more likely to go over their gift budget,” he said.
Retailers use technology to increase customer traffic and sales
The rise of e-commerce and logistics automation has also accelerated the decline of the traditional intercom era.
“With warehouse automation and smart routing, retailers can meet huge online demand without rushing to stores,” said Sudip Mazumder, head of retail industry at Publicis Sapient, a technology and digital information company. “Physical stores have become fulfillment hubs rather than battlegrounds for bargain hunters, reflecting retail's broader transformation from store-driven hype to data-driven precision.”
Retailers have also revised their Black Friday strategy by trading volume-based promotions to improve supply chain profitability,” Mazumder said. “AI now manages discounting, clearing inventory with minimal markdowns and maximizing profits,” he said. “Success no longer depends on foot traffic, but on how effectively retailers manage order fulfillment and inventory.”
By smoothing demand and optimizing logistics, retailers “avoid costly last-minute delivery issues and maintain profits throughout the long holiday season,” Mazumder added.
Expanded loyalty programs extend shopping periods
Retailers have realized that investing resources into a single trading day pales in comparison to offering discounts and special offers to loyal customers.
“More and more brands are choosing their own sales windows and building rituals around membership,” said Charlie Casey, CEO and co-founder of LoyaltyLion, an e-commerce loyalty and engagement company.
For example, Casey cited skin care company Inkey List, which is hosting an “Insider Week” with members-only pricing, double points, scratch cards and tiered freebies. “This week saw loyalty's highest weekly contribution to revenue at 41%, with members spending three times as much and program sign-ups more than doubling,” Casey said. “It's Amazon-Prime logic applied to your own calendar, away from the hostilities of Black Friday and Cyber Monday.”
Casey said he's also seeing member-only packages and bonuses popping up monthly. “The effect is the same as the eternal Cyber Month, but it is designed for your base, and not for a one-day crush,” he noted. “Combined with zero-side data, this can be personalized to make it look special.”
Is this holiday goose cooked forever?
Overall, the global retail sector is moving towards a continuous trading model rather than banner shopping days.
“Instead of one big day of sales, shoppers see a constant stream of personalized offers, loyalty rewards and small, data-driven promotions throughout the season,” said Bess Devenow, senior manager of strategic communications and analytics at Vantage. “While consumers may be more discerning when shopping this year, the holidays will remain an enduring retail ritual, one of the few times when emotion, tradition and commerce intersect in ways that shape consumer behavior year after year.”
Devenow said Black Friday could still exist as a useful reminder of when and how to get deals and streamline the gift-buying process, but not as a singular one-day event.
“This holiday season will prioritize retailers that make shopping fun, personalized and truly rewarding from October through the end of December,” she said. “The excitement may have changed, but the spirit of hunting for value for consumers is still very much alive.”
Other retail experts say the traditional version of Black Friday, characterized by daylong outings and packed stores, has largely run its course.
“It no longer fits the way consumers shop,” said Ben Hassi, co-CEO of Katana Cloud Inventory, a business process software company. “However, the event itself remains relevant in a new form. Black Friday continues to be one of the best-selling periods of the season, but now functions as part of a longer, digitally driven cycle.”
Retailers are still planning for a surge in sales at the end of November, but the strategy has changed. “The focus has now shifted to dynamic pricing, the convenience of online trading and maintaining profitability through smarter supply chain management,” Hussey said.
