If there's some positive news for those who like to grill a steak in the summer or enjoy a roast dinner during the cold winter months, beef prices are expected to rise even more in 2026, but not as much as they have in recent years.
“The bad news is that there won't be a decline,” said Mike von Massow, a food economist at the University of Guelph in Guelph, Ont.
Beef prices are at record highs after rising 16 percent over the past year and 35 percent in October compared to the five-year average. The retail price of beef is expected to rise again next year.
The reasons for high prices are as simple as supply and demand: cow supply is historically low and demand is incredibly high. However, the situation is much more complex: Ranchers face difficult farm decisions and the commodity is affected by several factors, such as international trade and severe weather events.
Overall, meat prices rose at the fastest rate of any food category in 2025, driven by rising costs of beef, according to recent national food price report Dalhousie University in Halifax.
There are many considerations as experts weigh the question of when shoppers will finally be able to feel some relief at the meat counter.
For the love of beef
Whether it's hamburgers on the grill or stew on a cold winter night, there are certain foods that become traditions and part of food culture. Those habits, which may have social implications, may help explain why demand for beef remains strong despite price shocks at restaurants and grocery stores.
“We love beef, and beef is Canadians’ favorite protein,” von Massow said. “Canadians were in many ways creatures of habit. So if something was in our grocery cart last week, it will be in our grocery cart this week.”
However, one notable trend is that some shoppers are avoiding more expensive items for secondary cuts, such as choosing steak instead of roast. “Instead of giving up beef, we're seeing people giving up beef,” he said.
The high demand for beef can also be explained by people wanting more protein in their diet.
“The demand for beef has been phenomenal,” said Kevin Grier, a Guelph-based livestock market analyst. “If you want to know who is to blame for high beef prices, look in the mirror,” he said.
So far, record prices don't seem to be deterring many buyers. But this demand is only one reason why prices continue to rise.
Too few cows
Canada's cattle population has been declining for decades, and severe drought in parts of Western Canada in recent years has led to further declines in herd size. Drought conditions have driven up feed prices at the same time that other costs, such as fertilizer, labor and energy prices, have risen.
Herd size in Canada is at its lowest level since the 1980s. In the United States, this is the lowest figure since the 1960s.
“It's been very dry there, and it's even drier in the United States, and that increases costs dramatically,” said Ellen Goddard, an agricultural economist and professor emeritus at the University of Alberta in Edmonton.
“The beef production cycle is very, very long. I think we should be glad we don't eat elephants because the cycle will be even longer,” she said.
WATCH | How much more expensive will groceries cost in Canada in 2026?:
A trip to the grocery store could cost you more next year, according to a report from Dalhousie University.
Tough Choices for Ranchers
Ranchers face a difficult decision about expanding their operations.
Cattle prices are at an all-time high after jumping more than 20 per cent in each of the last two years, according to Canfax, a Calgary-based non-profit that researches Canadian beef statistics.
Farmers can sell their cows for a very high price, but they can also keep them for a few more years to give birth to calves. Retaining cows may lead to further temporary increases in retail prices.
“If we want to rebuild the herd, we really need to have a short-term problem, which is maintaining calves for producers, which actually reduces the supply of beef to market, in order to have a long-term increase in supply,” said Brenna Grant, executive director of Canfax, which is a division of the Canadian Cattlemen's Association.
For ranchers, raising a herd can also be risky given the prevalence of drought.
“We were buying feed for $250 to $300 a bale. This has never been heard of before,” said Alberta rancher Brenda Rosadiuk, describing how prices have skyrocketed in recent years due to parched pastures and fields.
A bale of hay typically sells for $100 to $150, she said.
Ranchers have to weigh many factors, including financial status, age and succession planning.
It projects that by 2033, 60 percent of farmers will be over 65, representing one of the largest leadership transitions in the country's history. RBC Economics.
Succession planning is a particular challenge in agriculture due to the rising cost of farmland, income instability from year to year, and the rural lifestyle may be unattractive to younger generations.
“With high cattle prices, some producers are saying, 'Hey, this is a good sign for us to retire or do something else,'” said Rosadyuk, a rancher near Evansburg, about 100 kilometers west of Edmonton.
“Others say, 'Oh, I have new optimism and I'm going to try to rebuild my herd.'
External factors influence prices
Prices in Canada are influenced by many factors outside the country, especially since the US border is open for beef.
In 2025, the Trump administration imposed, modified, and reduced tariffs on beef imports from several countries, including Argentina, Brazil, and Australia.
Tyson Foods, the largest meat producer in the United States, announced plans last month close a beef plant in Nebraska and cut operations at a plant in Texas. Meanwhile, U.S. cattle producers are facing the threat of a disease known as New World Worma destructive pest coming from Mexico.
All of these factors can impact demand for Canadian beef in different ways.
Canada also imports beef from countries such as Mexico and Australia, and Canadian beef can be exported to several countries around the world.
“Prices in Canada and the US are so strong that it’s like a magnetic beacon. [for imports]said Grier, a livestock analyst.
At the same time, some Canadian beef is being exported because consumers in other countries are willing to pay higher prices for select cuts that are not in as high demand in Canada, he said.
This is why it is common to see some Canadian beef shipped to countries like South Korea, while some Australian beef may end up on store shelves in Canada.
Tall steaks
Despite all the variables in the industry, experts agree that beef prices will remain high until at least 2027, when supply begins to improve markedly.
However, the improvement in retail prices may only be “modest,” Grier said.
He said rebuilding this herd will take time because cattle take a long time to reproduce, especially compared to other farm animals such as chickens.
“Livestock farming is like an ocean liner. It takes a long time to turn around,” he said.
On the demand side, people's appetite for red meat shows no signs of slowing down.
“We still do meat dishes. We still go to restaurants, whether it's a hamburger or a striploin,” Grier said. “We're still buying it.”
