Boston Consulting Group said the popularity of live streaming is either leveling off or declining.
Talking to GamesIndustry.biz O his latest reportThe company noted that many games of this type have peaked in popularity, while user-generated content platform Roblox is bucking the trend and growing. Despite this, Boston Consulting notes that free-to-play service-based games such as Fortnite, Call of Duty and Valorant still boast large player bases.
The company also notes that while Roblox has seen growth, other games like Fortnite are focusing more on their own user-generated content platforms.
“For several years, there has been a perception in the industry that live-service games are black holes that are taking up more and more of players' time. Indeed, we found that, starting with millennials, 50% prefer live services,” said BCG partner Giorgo Paizanis.
“This has led to large investments in live-service games that have failed over the past few years. Few, if any, have achieved this – think Skull & Bones, xDefiant, Suicide Squad, Concord, and even those that did have some success have since fallen off, like Helldivers and Marvel Rivals.
“This year we have seen the stagnation and decline of some of the biggest live service games, such as Fortnite and Call of Duty, which have dominated for at least the last 5 years.
“What continues to grow despite this trend reversal is Roblox. In response to this, we've seen Fortnite become more focused on its creator economy, and over the past few months we've started to see the best games being created by users rather than Epic, which is a relatively new phenomenon.”
Boston Consulting Group also believes that subscription-based models will grow in popularity over time. The firm believes this business model makes it easier to access games across a wide range of genres.
“Based on the data, we see that this preference remains strong among millennials and is generally correlated with the proportion of time spent, which makes us think it will continue,” Paizanis explained.
“Beyond data, we think that over time—as games become more compatible back and forth and become available across devices and screens—the subscription model will become attractive as a way to access content anywhere without worrying about storage. We're also finding that for some types of games, such as single-player story games, people may want to try different games, which is hard to do when each game costs between $50 and $70.
“We also believe that iterative sports franchises are likely better served by a subscription model rather than an annual release to maintain and grow the player base while funding regular content and feature updates. We expect family subscriptions to grow as more parents play games with their children.”
