US President Donald Trump is in Asia for a whirlwind week of diplomacy that includes a highly anticipated meeting with his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping.
Top of the agenda will be trade, an area where tensions are rising again between the world's two largest economies.
Trump touches down in the Malaysian capital Kuala Lumpur as the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) summit begins on Sunday. He will then visit Japan and finally South Korea, where the White House said he will meet with Xi Jinping.
So what victories are Trump and other leaders hoping for, and what are the pitfalls?
Our reporters break down what you need to know about the week ahead.
For Trump, China is key
Anthony Zurcher, North America correspondent
Negotiating new trade agreements that provide opportunities for American businesses while keeping tariff revenue flowing into the U.S. Treasury will undoubtedly be a focus of Trump's trip to Asia.
While there are many players in the global trade dance, the key to Trump's success or failure is China. And Trump's planned meeting with Chinese leader Xi Jinping on the sidelines of APEC – his first since 2019 – could determine the course of US-China relations for the remainder of Trump's second term.
As the US President has admitted, draconian tariffs on Chinese imports are unacceptable. And although he did not say so directly, an escalation of the economic war with America's largest trading partner would have devastating consequences – for the United States, for China and for the rest of the world.
The steep declines in major US stock indexes whenever China and the US find themselves at loggerheads underscore this reality.
When he returns to America next week, Trump will likely be pleased if he can complete the deal with South Korea and secure new Japanese investment in US manufacturing.
But his top priority will undoubtedly be to persuade Xi to resume purchases of American agricultural products, ease recent restrictions on foreign access to Chinese rare earth materials, give American companies greater access to the Chinese market and avoid a full-blown trade war.
For Trump, as they say, this is the name of the game.
Xi Jinping's Long Game
Laura Beeker, China correspondent
When Chinese leader Xi Jinping meets Trump on October 30 in South Korea, he wants to be a tougher negotiator.
That's why he's exploiting China's stranglehold on rare earths, minerals without which semiconductors, weapons systems, cars and even smartphones can't be made. This is a US weakness, and China is taking advantage of it, just as it is hurting American farmers and Trump's rural voter base by not buying their soybeans.
Xi has also learned lessons from Trump 1.0, and this time Beijing appears willing to take the pain of tariffs. First, the US, which once received a fifth of Chinese exports, is no longer such an important market.
Trump's tariffs on US imports will be at the top of the agenda at every meeting this week. [Getty Images]
However, Xi must find a balance between the economic battle with the US and the fight against domestic problems. And Washington is aware of Xi Jinping's problems: high youth unemployment, a housing crisis, growing local government debt and public reluctance to spend money.
Analysts believe China could offer a deal if Trump agrees to start exporting advanced artificial intelligence chips or withdraw more military support from Taiwan.
But getting there won't be easy. One big difference is that Trump often seems willing to roll the dice and take risks, but Xi is playing a much longer game.
So the question may be: Can Trump wait it out?
Main role in the film “Peace”
Jonathan Head, Southeast Asia correspondent
The US President, during his visit to Malaysia, seems interested in only one thing: to play a major role in a ceremony organized especially for him, at which Thailand and Cambodia will sign some kind of peace agreement.
Disagreements between the two countries over the border remain unresolved, but under pressure to come up with something, they have made progress in agreeing to demilitarize the border.
Neither can afford to disappoint President Trump. Back in July, while they were still bombing and strafing each other, his threat to stop negotiating tariffs forced them to immediately cease fire.
Other ASEAN member states will hope that Trump's mere presence, however brief, will lead to normalization of relations with the United States.
They had a turbulent year in which their export-dependent economy was badly shaken by his tariff war. Exports from the region to the US have doubled since Trump's last visit to the ASEAN summit in 2017.
Once Trump is gone, the other leaders can get on with business as usual – quiet, gradual diplomacy that promotes the slow progress of integration between them.
Also on the agenda is a conflict that has not captured Trump's attention: the civil war in Myanmar, which has haunted every ASEAN meeting since it was sparked by a brutal coup in 2021.
Ink on paper, please.
Suranjana Tewari, Asia Business Correspondent
Asia's manufacturing hubs, which account for most of the world's output, will seek respite from Trump's tariffs.
Some have agreed to deals, others are still stuck in negotiations, but no one has signed an agreement.
So ink on paper, or at least promising negotiations, would be welcome.
Trump and Xi Jinping during the latter's visit to the United States in 2017. [AFP via Getty Images]
Take China. The meeting between Trump and Xi signals progress, but the two leaders have a lot to figure out, from tariffs and export controls to the source of it all: the rivalry between the world's two largest economies, which are competing for an edge in artificial intelligence and advanced technology.
Any easing of these tensions would bring relief to other countries in the region that find themselves at the center of events. Southeast Asia may find itself in the biggest trap: deeply woven into American electronics supply chains but also heavily dependent on Chinese demand.
Exports to the US have doubled over the past decade, but tariffs of 10% to 40% will hit producers in Vietnam, Indonesia, Singapore and Thailand.
It could also hurt U.S. chipmakers such as Micron Technology, which has factories in Malaysia. The country exported about $10 billion worth of semiconductors to the U.S. last year, about a fifth of total U.S. chip imports.
Rich economies such as Japan and South Korea face a different dilemma.
Although they are close US allies, they face unpredictable times – and will want to lock in tariff terms and investments. Automakers in both countries, which view the US as a key market, are already trying to make sense of the chaos.
An early test for Japan's new prime minister
Shaima Khalil, correspondent in Japan
Trump described Japan's new Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi as a woman with great “strength and wisdom.”
This week, her ability to forge a stable working relationship with him will be the first test of her leadership – and Japan's place in the changing world order.
In her first speech to parliament, she promised to increase Japan's defense budget, signaling her intention to share more of the security burden with Washington.
Trump has spoken about this before and is expected to press Tokyo to contribute more to the U.S. troop deployment – Japan has the largest number of U.S. troops overseas, about 53,000.
Janan [AFP via Getty Images]
Both sides also want to finalize the tariff agreement negotiated by its predecessor.
Particularly beneficial for Japanese auto giants Toyota, Honda and Nissan is a reduction in US import duties on Japanese cars from 27.5% to 15%, potentially making them more competitive with Chinese rivals.
By retaining Ryosei Akazawa as chief tariff negotiator, Takaichi is banking on continuity.
In return, Japan pledged to invest $550 billion in the United States to strengthen pharmaceutical and semiconductor supply chains.
Trump also said Japan would increase purchases of US agricultural products, including rice. The move is welcomed in Washington but raises concerns among Japanese farmers.
Takaichi's ties to the late former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, who maintained a close relationship with Trump, may also work in her favor.
Abe famously used golf at Mar-a-Lago to earn Trump's trust – the kind of personal diplomacy that Takaichi may seek to emulate.
Talk of tariffs as Kim Jong-un approaches
Jake Kwon, correspondent in Seoul
For South Korean President Lee Jae-myung, the pressing issue is Trump's tariffs.
But that thunder was briefly stolen by rampant rumors that Trump might visit the border to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.
Back in August, Lee spent much of his time in the Oval Office flattering Trump as a “peacemaker.” Trump reacted enthusiastically to the prospect of meeting Kim, whom he has not seen since 2019. Kim said last month that he still remembers Trump “fondly.”
Analysts believe Kim is hoping to legitimize his nuclear weapons program with another summit with the US president. There is no indication that a meeting is being prepared.
Either way, Lee needs to negotiate a trade deal. Negotiations to reduce US tariffs on South Korean exports from 25% to 15% have stalled, despite numerous trips by Seoul officials to Washington. The sticking point is Trump's insistence that Seoul invest $350 billion up front in the United States – about a fifth of South Korea's economy. Such huge investments could lead to a financial crisis, Seoul fears.
But in recent days, Korean officials have expressed hope, citing tangible progress. And they will be hoping for an agreement by the end of the Trump-Lee summit on Wednesday.
