Avatar: Fire and Ash became the third film in the franchise to top $1 billion at the worldwide box office, but the question remains whether it will ultimately match Avatar 1 or Avatar 2 by the end of its theatrical run—or convince Disney to greenlight Avatar 4 and Avatar 5.
In its third weekend, James Cameron's Fire and Ashes earned another $40 million domestically, marking a 37% drop in sales for the week. Now within the country this figure reaches $306 million. Fire and Ashes was a big success internationally, especially in China, grossing $777.1 million in theaters. This amounts to a total of $1.083 billion. Disney said the total value of the Avatar franchise has exceeded $6.35 billion worldwide.
Avatar films with special effects cost a lot of money to produce, but they have historically generated billions of dollars at the box office. Avatar 1 remains the highest-grossing film of all time (not adjusted for inflation) and earned a staggering $2.9 billion over its multiple showings. Avatar: The Way of Water meanwhile, earned $2.3 billion, cementing it as the third-highest grossing film of all time – just behind Cameron's Titanic.
Will Fire and Ash ultimately match the box office success of its predecessors? Fire and Ash is slower to $1 billion than Avatar 1 and Avatar 2, but not by much. The Way of Water, released in 2022, reached $1 billion after 14 days of launch, and Avatar, released in 2009, reached $1 billion after 17 days. Fire and Ash earned $1 billion 18 days after release.
Avatar films tend to have impressive staying power at the global box office, especially internationally, so the coming weeks will be critical. Lending a helping hand, Disney is drip-feeding Avengers: Judgment Day trailers into theaters ahead of Fire and Ash in an effort to encourage repeat viewings (X-Men trailer to be replaced by fourth next week).
Perhaps a valid question is: will Avatar 3 make enough money in theaters to convince Disney to greenlight Avatars 4 and Avatars 5? Disney has already announced release dates for both sequels, with Avatar 4 currently set for December 21, 2029, and Avatar 5 set to release on December 19, 2031. Cameron, now 71, will be close to 80 by the time it's all over.
But will he get that chance? Ahead of the release of Fire and Ash, Cameron admitted to being nervous about the film's box office performance and expressed concern about “forces” working against theatrical releases in 2025.
Talking about Podcast “The City with Matthew Belloni”Cameron said there was a possibility of “consequences”. He added: “People tend to dismiss sequels unless it's the third Lord of the Rings movie and you want to see what happens to everyone and in my opinion that's the culmination of the storyline, but that's not how the public may see it.” And there's the “one-two punch” of streaming and Covid, meaning fewer people are going to the cinema – 75% of the number in 2019, Cameron suggested.
When Cameron was asked how much Avatar: Fire and Ash cost to produce, he wouldn't divulge a figure, only suggesting that it's a lot of money and so the film will have to make a lot of money to turn a profit.
“That’s one damn ton of money, which means we need to make two damn tons of money to make a profit,” he said. “I have no doubt that this movie will make money. The question is, will it make enough money to justify repeating it?”
And on that note, Cameron admitted that he's “absolutely” willing to walk away from Avatar if Fire and Ash flops. “I’ve been in Avatarland for 20 years,” he said. “Actually 30 years, because I wrote it in '95, but for the first 10 years I didn't work on it constantly. Yeah, absolutely, of course. If that's the end of it, cool.” What about open story threads? “There is one open topic. I will write a book!” Cameron replied.
Disney has yet to comment on the prospects for Avatar 4 and 5, but in announcing Fire and Ash's $1 billion hit this evening, the company called the figure “another monumental achievement for James Cameron's groundbreaking franchise and underscores its unprecedented connection with audiences around the world.”
“Avatar: Fire and Ash has demonstrated the franchise's signature theatrical staying power, growing its global popularity through sustained performance driven by demand for premium formats and expanded international play,” Disney continued, “hallmarks that have defined the Avatar phenomenon since 2009.”
Photo by Stephane Mouchmouche/Hans Lukas/AFP via Getty Images.
Wesley is IGN's News Director. Find him on Twitter at @wyp100. You can contact Wesley at [email protected] or confidentially at [email protected].
