As partisan redistricting efforts intensify in states across America, the nation's most populous state is preparing to make its move. Voters in California will decide next week whether to approve a new congressional map that could lead to five more Democratic seats in the U.S. House of Representatives. Polls show the measure, known as Proposition 50, is likely to pass easily.
The new map will temporarily replace a nonpartisan map drawn by an independent commission that Californians previously voted to support. But in response to aggressive Republican redistricting efforts in Texas and other states, many local Democrats, including some commissioners, now say the state needs to fight fire with fire.
This turn of events does not bring “any joy” to Sara Sadhwani. But a Democratic member of California's independent redistricting commission says she believes her state should take action to soften GOP power grabs elsewhere. She said Democrats need to gain control of the House of Representatives to end President Donald Trump's “violations of the US Constitution.”
Why did we write this
A dozen states are drawing new congressional district maps or considering doing so as Republicans and Democrats maneuver for control of the U.S. House of Representatives after the 2026 midterm elections. These efforts may reduce the importance of individual voters.
Congressional maps are typically redrawn every 10 years based on new census data. But now at least 12 states are either drawing new maps or considering them. The movement started in Augustwhen President Trump called on Texas Republicans to create a new map to try to win their party five more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives – an attempt to erase potential Democratic gains during the 2026 midterm elections. California's new map is expected to reverse Texas' gains.
The Texas Legislature simply formed and adopted new districts. But California's plan, which would temporarily remove the independent redistricting commission, needs voter approval on Nov. 4.
Given that the GOP holds a majority of just six seats in the House of Representatives, small gains for either party could have major consequences. Republicans, egged on by the White House, the maps have already been redrawn in North Carolina and Missouri, as well as Texas, to try to add seven more House seats to their column. Another red states like Kansas, IndianaOhio and Utah could soon follow suit. Democrats are looking for ways to potentially do the same in Virginia, Illinois, New YorkAnd Maryland.
Polls show that many Americans, in the abstract, oppose partisan machinations and consider this the antithesis of democracy. But support for drawing cards without regard for party advantage breaks down when the other side is deemed to no longer play fair. “People usually think that when the other side violated the normthen you have to respond in kind,” says Hans Noel, a professor of government at Georgetown University.
In early August, before Texas adopted the new map, a little more than a third Californians said they support the idea of changing the structure of their state's Congress; poll published on Friday shows that support is now at 60%. The ballot measure has become one of the most expensive races in state history, attracting national attention and funding. Democrats have raised more than $138 million. so far, compared to opponents' $80 million.
Professor Sadhwani's views here reflect a broader understanding that extreme partisanship forces poor choices on voters and undermines local power as elections become nationalized. The rapid rise in Californians' support for Proposition 50 reflects the influence of national political forces and dollars that are fueling the country's partisan divide. Critics say it's a vicious circle.
“The more they gerrymander, the less competitive the districts are, the less important individual voters are,” says Chad Peacelegal adviser Independent Electoral Projectwho advocates for nonpartisan election reform.
Local politics goes national
The redistricting race illustrates a new principle, says Professor Noel: “All politics is no longer local.” Because political power at the national level is directly tied to state congressional maps, he says, “national politics are now simply inevitable at the state level.”
This is true in California, where a recent poll shows 75% of those who plan to vote for Proposition 50 says they are doing this to counter President Trump. In the same CBS News/YouGov poll, nearly two-thirds of voters, including Republicans, said they thought the president treated deep-blue California worse than other states.
Democrats make up less than half (46%) Registered voters of Californiaand about a quarter (24%) are Republicans. The bulk of the remaining voters did not indicate any party preferences. states current composition of Congress is already leaning toward Democrats, who hold 43 of the state's 52 House seats, as well as both Senate seats. Proposal 50 Card tips five more counties towards the Democrats.
Republican Rep. Vince Fong, who represents California's central district, calls the new map a “power grab.” Governor Gavin Newsom, he says, is disenfranchising rural communities by adding them to urban districts – all to further his own political ambitions (Governor Newsom has confirmed that he will consider running for the White House in 2028).
Ventura County Republican Party Chairman Richard Lucas says the views of conservatives like him are being effectively silenced. Even though he was born and raised in California, he says, he feels unwelcome by the state's Democratic majority, and Proposition 50 will only make things worse.
“Two wrongs don’t make a right,” he says.
If Proposition 50 passes, it will be even easier for blue and red states to portray each other as “enemies,” Professor Noel says. “And it becomes more difficult to think about a presidential campaign that is actually aimed at reaching all 50 states, or a party that represents all 50 states.”
California “reimagining”
California one of eight states which have independent commissions tasked with drawing congressional districts. In 2008, voters approved the creation of the Citizens' Reapportionment Commission by a narrow margin: 51% to 49%. The commission initially drew the state's legislative districts. Congressional districts were added two years later, when it also survived repeal, and 60% voted to keep it.
“Californians are constantly rethinking things,” says Professor Sadhwani, who teaches politics at Pomona College. They approved the commission the same year President Barack Obama won a landslide victory on a campaign with a message of “hope,” she adds. “If Californians don’t feel as hopeful in 2025, they may revert to how they want to operate nationally.”
current proposal for voting adapted to the moment; this is clearly related to Texas redistricting and the completion of the 2030 Census, when the independent commission will resume its mandate.
With these guardrails in place, “Proposition 50 is a common-sense measure that allows voters to both support independent redistricting and decide to oppose this administration,” says Rusty Hicks, chairman of the California Democratic Party.
Representatives should think about their constituents first, and the party second, says Mr Peace of the Independent Electoral Project. A conservative representative could even help the state work with Republican leadership, he adds. But some states are considered synonymous with the dominant political party, such as California for the Democrats and Texas for the Republicans.
“The sad thing,” he says, “is that we kind of swapped those two issues.”
Winner takes all system
The impact of gerrymandering on democracy can be devastating, Mr. Peace says. As competition decreases, political parties become less responsive to voters, which leads to a decrease in their activity. “In fact, in the long run, that's why you see people trusting one party or another less and less,” he says.
Experts suggest that structural reforms can solve these problems. Multi-member districts, in which multiple legislators represent a large area, are one way to eliminate problems inherent in redistricting and try to create “fair” maps, he said.
However, the same two-party system that is driving the current division has in the past supported cooperation with periods of bipartisan lawmaking, says Professor Sadhwani, who hopes the parties can once again find a middle ground.
“If no one likes this kind of gerrymandering and redistricting, let's end it as a nation,” she says. “And the way to do that is to have independent redistricting commissions in all 50 states.”
Independent maps, Professor Noel said, are “the state-of-the-art tool for good government advice”. But he said it didn't take long for parties to realize that giving up control over the redistricting process has a cost at the national level, “and what once seemed like a harmless idea is now getting in the way.”
Monitor staff writer Simon Montlake contributed reporting for this story from Bakersfield, California.
