WASHINGTON — A hasty attempt to redraw California's congressional districts led to attracted the attention of the whole country, large sums of moneyAnd new hope among democrats that these efforts could help counter the wave of Republican redistricting initiatives launched by President Trump.
But if Democrats succeed in California, the question remains: Will it be enough to change the balance of power in Congress?
To regain control of the House, Democrats need to flip three seats from Republicans in next year's midterm elections. This small difference prompted The White House will put pressure on Republicans this summer redraw maps in GOP states to keep Democrats in the minority.
Texas was the first to signal it would follow Trump's order and sparked a rare mid-decade redistricting arms race that quickly spread to California, where Gov. Gavin Newsom developed Proposition 50 to take advantage of their state's vast number of congressional seats.
Californians appear ready to approve the measure. Tuesday. If they do so, Democrats could potentially gain five House seats, a result that would largely offset Republican efforts in Texas that have already passed.
While Democrats and Republicans in other states have also made moves to redraw their maps, it is too early to say which party will see a net gain or to predict voter sentiment a year from now, as lopsided elections in either direction could make a remap irrelevant.
Republican Party leaders in North Carolina And Missouri approved new maps that would likely give one new GOP seat each, Ohio Republicans could gain two more seats on the newly redrawn map approved Fridayand GOP leaders in Indiana, Louisiana, Kansas and Florida are considering or taking steps to redraw their maps. Overall, the moves could lead to at least 10 new Republican seats, according to experts who track redistricting efforts.
To counter this, Democrats in Virginia passed a constitutional amendment that, if approved by voters, would give lawmakers the authority and ability to redraw the new map ahead of next year's elections. Illinois leaders are weighing redistricting options, and New York has filed a lawsuit seeking to redraw a GOP-controlled district. But concerns over legal challenges have already hampered the party's efforts in Maryland, and a potential weakening of the black vote has slowed progress in Illinois.
So far, partisan maneuvering appears to be working in Republicans' favor.
“Democrats can't find a way out of their gerrymandering problem. The math just doesn't add up,” said David Daly, senior fellow at the nonprofit FairVote. “They don’t have enough opportunities and they don’t have enough goals.”
Challenging Factors for Democrats
Democrats have more than just political calculations to weigh. In many states, they are hampered by a combination of constitutional restrictions, statutory deadlines, and the fact that many state maps can no longer be easily redrawn for selfish gain. In California, Proposition 50 represents a departure from state rules. commitment to independent redistricting.
Democrats' hesitancy in states like Maryland and Illinois also underscores tensions brewing within the party as it tries to maximize its partisan advantage and build a House majority that could thwart Trump in his final two years in office.
“Despite deeply shared disappointment about the state of our country, Maryland's mid-cycle redistricting represents a reality in which the legal risks are too high, the timing of action is dangerous, the downside risk for Democrats is catastrophic, and confidence in our existing map will be undermined,” Bill Ferguson, Maryland Senate President, wrote in a letter to state legislators. last week.
In Illinois, black Democrats have expressed concerns about the plans and vowed to oppose maps that would reduce the share of black voters in congressional districts where they have historically dominated.
“I can't think of this as just a short-term fight. I have to think about the long-term consequences of these actions,” said state Sen. Willie Preston, chairman of the Illinois Senate Black Caucus.
Added to these concerns is the possibility that the Supreme Court's conservative majority could weaken a key provision of the landmark Voting Rights Act and limit lawmakers' ability to consider race when redrawing maps. The outcome—and its impact on the 2026 midterm elections—will depend largely on the timing and scope of the court's decision.
The court has been asked to rule on the case by January, but a decision could come later. Timing is critical as many states have deadlines to file to run for Congress in 2026 or hold primaries in the spring and summer.
If the court strikes down a provision known as Section 2, human rights groups' assessments Republicans could gain at least a dozen House seats in southern states.
“I think all of these things will contribute to whatever the legislature decides to do,” said Kareem Creighton, vice president of the Brennan Center for Justice. The court's impending decision, he added, is “an additional layer of uncertainty in an already uncertain time.”
Republican-led states are moving forward
Proposition 50 support brought in more than $114 million.support from some of the party's biggest luminaries, including former President Obama, and momentum for national Democrats who want to regain control of Congress after the midterm elections.
In an email to supporters Monday, Newsom said fundraising goals had been met and asked supporters of the initiative to get involved in other states.
“I will ask you to help others – states like Indiana, North Carolina, South Carolina and others are trying to stop Republican redistricting efforts in the middle of the decade. More on that soon,” Newsom wrote.
Indiana Republican Governor Mike Brown called a special session will begin Monday to “protect Hoosiers from efforts in other states that seek to diminish their voice in Washington and ensure they are fairly represented in Congress.”
In Kansas, the state Senate GOP president said last week that there were enough signatures from House Republicans to call a special session to redraw the state's map. Republicans in the state House of Representatives will have to make a corresponding effort to move forward.
Republicans control the legislature in Louisiana voted last week delay the state's 2026 primary. The move is intended to give lawmakers more time to redraw the maps in a case the Supreme Court rules in a federal voting case.
If judges abandon the practice of drawing districts based on race, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a Republican, indicated the state will likely enter a redistricting race mid-decade.
Shaniqua McClendon, head of Vote Save America, said the GOP's sweeping redistricting movement underscores why Democrats should follow California's lead – even if they don't like the tactic.
“Democrats have to take what's at stake seriously. I know they don't like the means, but we have to think about the end,” McClendon said. “We must be able to take back the House of Representatives—that is the only way to hold Trump accountable.”
In New York a lawsuit filed last week alleging The fact that any congressional district disenfranchises blacks and Latinos will be a Hail Mary for Democrats hoping to improve their chances in the 2026 midterm elections, FairVote's Daly said.
Utah could also give Democrats an outside opportunity to take over the seat, said Dave Wasserman, congressional forecaster for the nonpartisan Cook Political Report. Court decision this summer demanded that Utah Republican leaders redraw on the state's congressional map, potentially flipping two districts for Democrats.
Wasserman characterized the various redistricting efforts as “an arms race…Democrats are using what Republicans did in Texas as an excuse for California, and Republicans are using California as a justification for what they did in other states.”
“Political Tribalism”
Some political observers said the outcome of the California election could inspire even more political maneuvering in other states.
“I think the passage of Proposition 50 in California could show other states that voters can support mid-decade redistricting when it's needed when they're under attack,” said Jeffrey Weiss, a professor at New York Law School, where he directs the New York Institute on Elections, Census and Redistricting. “I think it will certainly provide momentum for places like New York to move forward.”
Like California, New York would need to ask voters to approve a constitutional amendment, but that could not be done by the midterms.
“It could also embolden Republican states that have been hesitant to redistrict and say, 'Well, if voters in California support redistricting in the middle of the decade, maybe they'll support it here,'” Weiss said.
The idea that the mid-decade redistricting trend is picking up steam is part of a larger problem, said Eric Nisbet, director of Northwestern University's Center for Communications and Public Policy.
“This is a symptom of a 20-year trend of increasing polarization and political tribalism,” he said. “And unfortunately, our tribalism is now flaring up not only among ourselves, but also between states.”
He argued that both parties were sacrificing democratic norms and ideas of procedural fairness as well as representative democracy for political gain.
“I’m concerned about what the end result of this will be,” he said.
Ceballos reported from Washington, Mehta from Los Angeles.
