In MLB history, the World Series has been played 120 times, and in 76 of them (63 percent), the winner of Game 1 took it all. This trend became even more pronounced after the 30 Fall Classics played since Toronto Blue Jays last qualified in 1993, during which time the winner of the first game has won the series 24 times.
Not that any decision the Blue Jays make in the next 7-10 days will be low leverage. But if past is prologue, it's imperative that the Blue Jays make the most of every variable Friday night when they open the 121st World Series at home.
So let's look ahead to some of the player placement decisions that Blue Jays manager Jon Schenider and his staff will be weighing over the next 24 hours.
How should the Blue Jays line up against Blake Snell?
Tyler Heineman
Miles Straw
Addison Barger
Nathan Lux
The Blue Jays haven't faced a lefty starter since Max Fried and Carlos Rodon in the ALDS. These are limited opportunities for Davis Schneider, who pitched just five times during the ALCS. But his Game 1 matchup with Blake Snell gives him an opportunity to get back into the lineup, and he's certainly spent the last 72 hours repeatedly facing the Dodgers' left-hander on the Trajekt machine in the Toronto cages.
Assuming Bichette is in the lineup and that he won't be ready to pitch nine innings after being out for nearly seven weeks, he'll become a DH sweeper, forcing George Springer back to right field.
Springer is battling his own knee injury, but it's just a bruise, and the three days off between the end of the ALCS and the start of the World Series should give him plenty of time to recover and get back on the field. With Nathan Lux in the lineup against a right-handed starter, Springer can play left-handed, which is a little less defensively demanding. But Schneider's best position is left, so Springer gets the first game. Lux and Myles Straw will be benched if the Blue Jays want to maximize their defense late in the game.
Addison Barger found his way to the bottom of the ALCS, but his .607 OPS against lefties this season—and .551 for his MLB career—forces him to remain on the bench as much as Snell in the game. But he could score Kiner-Falefa late if the Blue Jays need a knockout, as can Nathan Lux for Schneider if Dave Roberts pushes Blake Treinen or Rocky Sasaki out of his bullpen.
Varsho is the only left-handed striker in the lineup, primarily because his central defense is irreplaceable. But he also went 12-for-33 against lefties in August and September, showing that a recent adjustment allows him to hold up better against one-sided pitchers. And he always has the threat of incurring a headache if Snell proves particularly difficult to hold out.
How long will Trey Yesavage's leash be?
So far in the postseason, the Blue Jays have allowed Yesavage to gradually get deeper into appearances, giving him two runs in the division series against the Yankees, 20 batters in his first start against the Mariners and 23 when he returned for Game 6.
But we're still talking about a 22-year-old who, in his first professional season, made only his seventh major league start, so his latest outing for the Mariners – 87 pitches against 23 batters – is probably his limit.
If he throws strikes, misses bats and limits hard contact, Yesavage could go through the order twice before Schneider has to make a decision. Allowing him to face three future Hall of Famers at the top of the Dodgers order for a third time would certainly be a risk that would become more appropriate if the Blue Jays have a significant lead and Yesavage holds his own.
But if the count is tight, Yesavage's velocity is down, and swings seem more comfortable against him, it would be wise to take a different look at Shohei Ohtani, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman for their third-plate performances.
How should the Blue Jays deploy their bullpen?
The Blue Jays have preached the importance of changing the look of the hitter throughout the postseason, and they did a great job of that against the Mariners. Of Seattle's top six hitters, the only one to see a pitcher three or more times was Julio Rodriguez (Louis Varlandfour times), Randy Arozarena (Jeff Hoffman, three times) and Eugenio Suarez (Warland three times; Mason Fluharty and Ceranthony Dominguez, three times).
Meanwhile, Cal Raleigh and Josh Naylor — Seattle's two best hitters in the series — were hit by no Blue Jays pitchers on three occasions. And although Varland appeared in six of the seven games, Raleigh and Arozarena did not see him until the seventh game.
The Blue Jays are making this a priority because just as there is a third-run penalty for starters, there is a third-run penalty for relievers in a postseason series. Since 2019, postseason hitters have a .684 OPS against relievers overall. But when they face a pitcher for the third time in the series, they have an OPS of .833. This is a jump of 150 points.
So, Schneider and his staff will have a plan for how they're going to limit the familiarization penalty on the Dodgers' dangerous hitters throughout the series. That means Warland, Fluharty, Eric Lauer, Braydon Fisher and, yes, even Brandon Little will get a chance to navigate this minefield.
Which of them will complete the task in the first game will most likely depend on the game scenario. Is it a tie or do the Blue Jays maintain a slight lead? Then Varland is the first choice. Is there any cushion for leadership or scarcity? Then perhaps Fluharty or Lauer will get an opportunity and Warland will be saved for a more significant role. Is the score one-sided? This would then be a good opportunity to get Little back into the game and allow him to deal with any lingering effects of his disastrous appearance in Game 5 of the ALCS.
Additionally, Dominguez and Hoffman are obviously the best options to defend the leaders in the eighth and ninth spots. Chris Bassitt looked great using leverage in the final game of the ALCS. But if Lauer is used as a situational lefty in shorter periods, Bassitt may have to be retained as an additional option if needed to take over after a short start or in extra innings.
