If the asteroid is in a collision course with the moon, what should humanity do? Try to push the space stone from the road before it strikes? Collect it with a nuclear explosion?
These are questions studied in Recent article Of the more than a dozen researchers, including several NASA scientists. And they are not purely hypothetical: Asteroid, known as 2024 According to estimates, it has a 4% probability of entering the moon in 2032.
Such a cosmic clash can lead to garbage “up to 1000 times higher than the background levels in just a few days, perhaps threatening astronauts and spaceships” in low -earth orbit, the researchers wrote in an article that was loaded on Preliminary site Arxiv September 15, but not yet reviewed.
To avoid creating this potentially dangerous garbage field, one of the options is the supply of an asteroid, according to the article, or to start what scientists call “a reliable violation” – before it reaches the moon.
Tell me links to the film “Armageddon”.
But the use of a nuclear explosion to destroy an asteroid was never checked, so the plan will be delivered with many basic risks.
Various key characteristics about the 2024 asteroid are not known, including its mass, which would be important to find out how to correctly “break” it without creating more problems.
“If the explosion is not enough, you are still going to create a garbage field,” said Julie Brisset, temporary director of the Florida Space Institute, which was not connected with the newspaper.
The asteroid of 2024 was first discovered using the last station of the asteroid warning system in Chile in December. NASA evaluates what it is measures up to 220 feet throughoutLarge enough to be considered a “city killer” because he can be able to cause serious damage to the city or region on Earth.
Experts initially thought that there is a slight probability that an asteroid could hit our planet, and the likelihood of such an impact was estimated at 3% at the beginning of this year. But the clash with the ground was later excluded.
With the ground, which is believed to be in clear, the asteroid 2024 has the alleged probability of a blow to the moon.
The authors of a recent article proposed to launch a mission for the reconnaissance of an asteroid, including an assessment of its mass from a loved one. After that, they proposed, an explosive device can be built, and then deployed To the cosmic rock.
As an alternative, if the destruction of an asteroid with the help of a nuclear explosion is too extreme, the researchers described in detail how to push it away.
NASA has some experience with this: in The first one of a kind test in 2022His Dardy probe deliberately crashed into a small space breed, known as Dimorphos to change its trajectory. The maneuver was held 6.8 million miles from the Earth and changed the path of dimorphos in space, reducing its orbit by 33 minutes, According to NASAField
But a successful deviation will also require knowledge of the mass of the asteroid 2024, Brisset said.
In response to the NBC NAWS NASA, the recent article by Kelly Fast, the acting employee of the agency’s planetary defense, said there was no plans to deviate or otherwise interfere with the asteroid.
Nevertheless, she said that it was planned to study it at the beginning of next year, using the James Webb space telescope. Any conclusions can give a better idea of his orbital path.
“In case of observation, additional data can improve our knowledge about where the asteroid will be in December 2032,” Fast said, “and can reduce the likelihood of exposure to 0%.”
Even if space missions similar to described in the newspaper could be fulfilled, there would be political considerations for navigation.
Although not a single astronauts or long -term habitats are on the moon, this is not always the case. China, for example, said The goal of putting their astronauts on the moon by 2030The Chinese officials also stated that the country can build a nuclear power plant on the surface of the lunar to nourish the lunar base, which it plans to work together with Russia.
The United States plan to launch regular missions on the lunar surface before NASA ultimately goes to Mars. But future missions and priorities NASA Remain in the stream against the background of significant reductions in the personnel and budget plan of President Donald Trump for NASA, which offers to reduce more than $ 6 billion from its budgetField
Detoning of a nuclear device in space can also also Add voltage to a growing space race According to Brisset, among the United States, China and other space protection countries, with potential conflicts, according to which countries and space agencies will conduct or participate in the project.
“Probably, these were countries that have the technical opportunities to do this,” she said, “which perhaps narrows it up to three or four, but do they want to work together?”
