Alleged drone attack on a Putin residence offers the Kremlin a timely narrative shift

Asked about the presence of any debris, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov called it “the business of our military.” He called Zelensky's denial of the attack and doubts expressed in Western media “completely insane.”

Russia's diplomatic position “will be toughened” as a result of the attack, Peskov said. “Our armed forces know how and when to respond,” he added.

The speaker of the lower house of the Russian parliament, Vyacheslav Volodin, also promised that Zelensky “cannot be forgiven.” Frantic coverage of the story topped newscasts on state television channels.

Putin has made no secret of his determination to continue the war unless the deal meets his tough demands.

The Kremlin did not comment on the whereabouts of the Russian leader at the time of the alleged attack. Hours earlier, he had appeared in his latest televised meeting with warlords, apparently aimed at demonstrating to domestic and foreign audiences that Russia has the upper hand in the war and will take the territory it wants by force if it cannot get it at the negotiating table.

Zelensky has launched his own propaganda campaign, and his meeting with Trump in Florida on Sunday was hailed as a success for Ukraine, despite the lack of a clear breakthrough.

The sudden accusation against Russia should be seen as “perfectly timed theater,” said Matthew Ford, an associate professor of military studies at the Swedish Defense University in Stockholm.

Putin is trying to create “sufficient cover” for the Trump administration to press ahead with its tough demands while avoiding the U.S. siding with Ukraine, Ford said.

What does this mean for Ukraine?

Trump said he learned about the alleged attack directly from Putin and was “very angry about it.”

“I don’t like it,” Trump told reporters when asked if he was worried the alleged attack could affect his peace efforts. Asked if there was any evidence of an attack, Trump said: “We'll find out.”

Ukraine insists that he does not exist.

“Almost a day has passed, and Russia has still not provided any plausible evidence,” said Foreign Minister Andrei Sibiga. “And they won’t. Because they don’t exist. There was no such attack.”

Trump touted progress after his meeting with Zelensky, although he acknowledged that “thorny issues” remained.Jonathan Ernst/Reuters

Trump's response touches a nerve at a particularly sensitive moment for Ukraine.

On Monday, Zelensky declared success in obtaining long-term security guarantees from the United States that would be legally binding and help prevent a future Russian attack. Trump offered Ukraine security guarantees for at least 15 years, he said, while Kyiv asked for as much as 50 years.

But later, when asked whether US troops would be stationed in Ukraine, Zelensky told reporters on WhatsApp that Trump would have to make the decision. “We’d like that,” he said. “That would be a strong component of security guarantees.”

This is not an abstract problem for Ukraine, whose cities are bombed almost daily by Russia, causing civilian deaths and damage even as negotiations continue.

The speed with which Trump is repeating Russia's claims underscores the need for Kyiv to understand exactly what security guarantees it is receiving and how they will work, said Svyatoslav Yurash, a Ukrainian parliament member and military officer.

To Yurash and others, the Kremlin's announcement looked like nothing more than another “false flag operation,” raising fears that it could repeat the strategy in the future to break the truce without being stopped by those enforcing any deal.

“We already had a declaration when we gave up the third largest nuclear arsenal in the world,” Yurash said, referring to the 1994 failure. Budapest Memorandumsigned jointly by the United States to protect his homeland from invasion by Russia. “We need more than a neatly written piece of paper,” Yurash added.

Phillips O'Brien, professor of strategic studies at the University of St. Andrews in Scotland, agreed.

“Ukrainians cannot trust the US government’s treaty obligations at all,” he said. “They already had it and they were pointless.”

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