WASHINGTON — The Trump administration's renewed efforts to resolve Russia's war in Ukraine have rattled European governments, which fear Washington is laying the groundwork for an ultimatum to Kyiv on Moscow's terms.
A flurry of diplomatic meetings has Ukrainian and European diplomats alarmed that President Trump and his team have accepted Vladimir Putin's Russian justification for the war. launched in 2022 to conquer Ukraine and destroy its democratic government, triggering the deadliest conflict in Europe since World War II.
This is the latest wobble in Trump's Ukraine policy since his return to power. The President has repeatedly flaring anger and disappointment in Ukraine because of his insistence on defense only to reverse course days or weeks later, temporarily covering the European partnership, the NATO alliance and Kyiv's prospects for victory.
This week, the administration appeared to have settled on a long-term course, releasing a National Security Strategy document on Friday that argues that Europe has “unrealistic expectations” about the outcome of the war and suggests it will work to develop political “resistance” to Europe's “current trajectory.”
The North Atlantic Treaty Organization should not be seen in perception and practice as an expanding alliance, the document says, a reference to Russia's long-standing argument justifying its military posture on the continent.
Americans overwhelmingly oppose Trump's current approach by a 2-to-1 margin, which would force Ukraine to give up its sovereign territory, including lands that Russia failed to provide on the battlefield, despite more than a million casualties. A recent Gallup poll found that Republicans disapprove of Trump's Ukraine policy more than any other issue.
Still, the president's advisers appear enthusiastic about the plan, which would force Ukraine to cede territory in exchange for non-binding commitments to secure what remains of the country in the future.
Steve Witkoff, a former real estate developer, and Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law who negotiated the Abraham Accords among Middle Eastern countries during Trump's first term, are leading the current effort. transfer between Moscow and Floridawhere they received Ukrainian diplomats to develop a peace plan. The current framework is based on a 28-point document developed by the Americans in consultation with the Russians.
A telephone conversation between Vitkoff and his Russian counterpart, a transcript of which was leaked last month, showed Vitkoff giving Moscow advice on how to win over Trump. Russian officials also expressed confidence to the local press that Trump's team understands their demands.
“There is a possibility that the US will betray Ukraine on the issue of territory without clarity on security guarantees,” Emmanuel Macron, the French president, said in a call with European leaders this week, according to a transcript obtained by Der Spiegel.
“They are playing games,” German Chancellor Friedrich Merz said of the Americans during the same call, “both with you and with us.”
In Ukraine, prominent analysts are questioning whether soldiers and generals on the battlefield will support a peace plan that includes ceding territory. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky insisted to Trump that the country's territorial integrity, as well as future security guarantees, must be the cornerstones of a viable peace agreement.
But Trump could jeopardize Ukraine's ability to continue the fight if he eventually loses patience, experts say.
“The U.S. still provides intelligence assistance, which is important, and is still willing to sell weapons to European countries for transfer to NATO,” said Brian Taylor, director of the Moynihan Institute for Global Affairs at Syracuse University.
The United States has already stopped direct assistance to Ukraine's war effort, instead agreeing to a NATO agreement to sell weapons and equipment to Europe, which in turn are transferred to Kyiv.
“If the U.S. stops even doing that—and that would be a pretty radical policy change, if the U.S. doesn't even want to sell weapons to European countries—then Europe will have to continue on the path that it's already on, which is strengthening its own defense production capabilities,” Taylor said.
Macron, Merz and other European allies, including British Prime Minister Keir Starmer and the King of England, implored the president to remain steadfast in support of Ukraine – and to increase the burden on Moscow, which they argue could change Putin's calculations over time.
European leaders are discussing whether to hand over to Kyiv some of the $220 billion in Russian assets frozen in European banks since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion as aid or to keep the funds as a subject of future negotiations.
“If the Trump administration and the Europeans want to do this, it could put real pressure on the Russian military and the economy, which is under increasing strain,” said Kyle Balzer, a scholar at the conservative American Enterprise Institute. “Russia's economic growth has been hit hard by falling energy prices and Russia's growing defense burden. And the Russian military is suffering losses that the Russian people cannot ignore forever.”
Speaking to reporters this week, Trump said about 7,000 Russian soldiers are dying on the battlefield each week, a staggering number in modern warfare. By comparison, during the eight years of the US war in Iraq, fewer than 4,500 American soldiers died.
“Such pressure will only be critical if the Trump administration stops giving Putin hope that Russia can negotiate a favorable agreement in exchange for deals that benefit American businesses,” Balzer added. “The West must attack Russia's resolve and convince Putin that it cannot achieve its goals. Continuing to give Putin hope makes this prospect unlikely.”
