Alabama's trip to the SEC Championship offers some reward and a lot of risk.
The Crimson Tide's path to the playoffs narrowed before the calendar turned to September after a Week 1 loss to Florida State. Months later, despite winning 10 of their last 11 games and winning the SEC Championship Game, Alabama is still not a sure-fire contender in the College Football Playoff.
That could change this weekend. A win over Georgia on Saturday would give Alabama a top-five finish in the conference. A loss would put the Tide's fate in the hands of the CFP committee, which could record them for a third loss – even if it came from a championship game for which the participants did not qualify.
Saturday gives Alabama a chance to take control of its destiny, and the Tide aren't interested in letting outsiders have the final say.
As for second-year coach Kalen DeBoer, the future of his team shouldn't be a topic of debate. The Tide are 10-2 this season. Their only loss, other than a mistake in Week 1, was a close loss to a ranked Oklahoma team in Week 12. This came after they eliminated six conference opponents, four of which were ranked.
“We're 7-1 in the league, winning four conference games on the road in the toughest conference,” DeBoer said Monday. “I just think when you're really trying to make the playoffs, you need your best teams. There's no doubt in my mind that we're one of the best teams. I don't say that arrogantly. I just really believe that it is what it is.”
It doesn't help that the CFP committee is subjective in nature and the playoff race is crowded. But no matter how the numbers are tallied, even despite the loss, DeBoer maintains his team has proven it belongs.
“I know that people look at a lot of indicators: authority, FPI. We are at the very top,” he said. “Playing in your conference championship game in the SEC shouldn't worry us because it will impact our playoff hopes. We got there and earned it.”
If Alabama loses on Saturday, earning a CFP bid would be historic. No team with three losses has ever made the playoffs. Alabama will have to compete for one of the seven remaining spots. Only in the SEC would Texas A&M, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Vanderbilt have higher overall numbers. In other words, Alabama's back is against the wall, but that's not a new feeling this season.
“Man, I feel like we’ve had that mentality since our first loss, honestly,” senior linebacker Deontae Lawson said. “Just control what we can control and do everything we can to win the game, leaving nothing to chance.”
The Crimson Tide have had success in Georgia in recent years. Kirby Smart is 7-1 against his former team, and Bama has won its last three matches. In September, Alabama ended Georgia's 33-game home winning streak with a score of 24–21. This gives the locker room some peace of mind ahead of the heavyweight bout.
“We've beaten this team before. We're going to go out and make sure we do the same,” Tim Keenan III said. “We're going to make sure we run things ourselves and not leave it up to a committee to make decisions for us.”
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