Agent’s Take: How Vikings are paying a price for going all in on J.J. McCarthy

Minnesota Vikings had high hopes for this season after falling one win short of clinching the NFC's No. 1 playoff berth in 2024. JJ McCarthywho lost his rookie year with a torn meniscus in his right knee during the preseason opener. There was a lot of spending in free agency where the offensive line (shooting guard) was upgraded. Will Fries and center Ryan Kelly) and the inside of the defensive line (Jonathan Allen And Javon Hargrave) were priorities.

Despite McCarthy's lack of playing experience, he made just 12 offensive snaps in the 2025 preseason. Instead, the 12th overall pick in 2024. Bo Nixwho was on the field 98.73% Denver BroncosOn offense in 2024, he spent 40 preseason snaps under center.

The 2025 season was disappointing for a number of reasons. The big problem is leaving the quarterback position. Sam Darnoldearning Pro Bowl honors last season. In addition to three fourth-quarter touchdowns in the comeback win over Chicago Bears In the first game of the regular season, McCarthy struggled in the two games he played before suffering a severe right ankle sprain. In the other seven quarters McCarthy played this season, he completed 55 percent of his passes for 214 yards, four turnovers and nine sacks.

Carson Wentzwho was signed at the end of pre-season to support McCarthy after Sam Howell was sold in Philadelphia Eagleswas inconsistent, going 2–3 in five starts. McCarthy is set to return to the lineup for the Week 9 game against Detroit Lions Wentz went on injured reserve with a season-ending left (non-throwing) shoulder injury. McCarthy has been the backup quarterback for Minnesota's last two games. To become a backup quarterback, McCarthy had to be medically cleared to play. This has led to some speculation that the Vikings believe Wentz is the best quarterback equipped to win games right now.

McCarthy's commitment cost the Vikings other viable options at cornerback: Darnold, Daniel Jones And Aaron Rodgers. The Vikings sit in last place in the NFC North with a 3-4 record. Those four losses trail the Vikings' 14-3 mark last season.

It's possible the Vikings will be 5-2 after seven games for the second straight season with better quarterback play. Matches were lost by one score Pittsburgh Steelers (24-21) and the Eagles (28-22).

Darnold's decision

Darnold seemed like a lock to return to Minnesota before his final announcement in the final two games of last season. He played his worst football when the stakes were highest. Darnold was terrible in the Week 18 loss to the Lions, with a wild card bye and the NFC North title on the line, and in a late-season playoff loss to a Wild Card team. Los Angeles Rams. His completion percentage was 53.1% while throwing for 411 yards with one touchdown and one interception and a passer rating of 66.4. Darnold has 11 sacks in two games, including a playoff-high nine sacks against the Rams.

However, the Vikings considered re-signing Darnold. Eventually he went to Seattle Seahawks in free agency. The Seahawks signed Darnold to a team-friendly three-year contract worth $100.5 million, which averages $33.5 million per year and caps at $115.5 million through incentives.

The deal was structured to give the Seahawks a small window to exit the deal after this season if Darnold did not play well. Of the $27.5 million Darnold is projected to make in 2026, $17.5 million of his injury guarantee becomes fully guaranteed five days after Super Bowl LX, February 13. The Seahawks will receive $25.6 million in dead money, the salary cap for a player no longer on the team's roster, while Darnold will receive $37.5 million for one year after Seattle parts ways with him in 2026.

Getting out quickly is not a priority for the Seahawks. Darnold is showing that his 2024 Pro Bowl season was no fluke. He's completing 68.2 percent of his passes (131 of 192 attempts) for 1,754 yards with 12 touchdowns and four interceptions and has a 109.2 passer rating through seven games. Darnold leads the league with 9.1 yards per pass. NFL. He ranks seventh in the league in passer rating.

The Seahawks are tied for first in the NFC West with the Rams at 5-2 after missing the playoffs last season. The only negative for Darnold is that the Seahawks might have gone undefeated if not for his late game turnovers in Weeks 1 and 5, as well as team losses. San Francisco 49ers And Tampa Bay Buccaneersrespectively.

Fair or not, JJ McCarthy finds himself in a pivotal moment as the future of the Vikings.

Tyler Sullivan

Indiana Jones

The Vikings had a pretty good idea of ​​Jones' capabilities, as he spent the final six weeks of the 2024 regular season on their practice squad after the game. New York Giants granted his request for release. Jones was named to the 53-man roster to back up Darnold during the playoffs.

Reluctance to reassure Jones that there would be open competition at the quarterback position, as he had with Anthony Richardson this preseason pushed him to Indianapolis Colts. He signed a one-year, $14 million deal worth up to $17.7 million with incentives as a free agent.

Jones is enjoying a remarkable career resurgence with the Colts. He's an MVP candidate. Jones threw for 2,062 yards with 13 touchdowns and two interceptions while completing 71.2% of his passes (173 of 243 attempts) and a 109.5 passer rating in eight games. He ranks third, fourth and fifth in the NFL, respectively, in completion percentage, passing yards and passer rating. The Colts lead the team in scoring (33.8 points per game) and have the best record in the NFL at 7-1.

I disagree with Aaron.

The Vikings were Aaron Rodgers' favorite destination for his 21st NFL season. Unfortunately for Rodgers, the move to Minnesota attracted him more than the Vikings. In June, he signed a one-year, $13.65 million contract with the Steelers, worth a maximum of $19.5 million in incentives.

Rogers shows he still has some gas left in the tank, even though he turns 42 in December. He passed for 1,489 yards with 16 touchdowns and five interceptions in seven games. Rodgers is completing 68.3% of his throws (142 of 208 pass attempts) and has a passer rating of 104.4. His 16 touchdown passes rank third in the NFL. Rodgers is also the league's eighth-best passer. The Steelers, who lead the AFC North, would reportedly like to have Rodgers back in 2026.

Monday Morning QB

The lineup will likely be different than any of the other three quarterbacks. Darnold's current contract has a 2025 salary cap hit of $13.4 million thanks to the inclusion of two contract waiver/void years in 2028 and 2029, allowing his $32 million signing bonus to be prorated at $6.4 million annually over five years.

The Vikings are comfortable using voided contract years. Assuming a similar contract is structured similarly for the Vikings' Darnold, the 2025 cap difference to Wentz's deal would be about $12 million.

According to the NFLPA, according to the $15.049 million cap hit the Vikings currently have in 2025, keeping Darnold would prevent the signing of an offensive lineman (Fries or Kelly) and an interior defensive lineman (Allen or Hargrave). Fries and Kelly's 2025 cap numbers are $5.67 million and $5,569,559, respectively. Allen and Hargrave's respective limits in 2025 are $6,421,666 and $8,017,206.

The one-year, $10 million contract Darnold signed to join the Vikings last year eliminated contract years from 2025 through 2028 and lowered his 2024 cap hit to $5 million. The Vikings have a $5 million cap hit in 2025 tied to those years because Darnold received a $6.25 million signing bonus.

Presumably, the Vikings would similarly include four dummy contract years in any one-year contract signed by Jones or Rodgers. The cap in 2025 will likely not exceed $7.5 million. The net cap increase from Wentz could be around $6 million. To maintain the integrity of Minnesota's current salary cap situation, one of the four linemen would not be signed.

In the short term, the Vikings would likely be better off with one of their three veteran quarterbacks on the roster this season. Signing Jones or Rodgers to a one-year deal would make more financial and salary cap sense than Darnold. The veterans continuing to play well without McCarthy, who has consistently shown some of the potential that put him in the top 10 for the rest of the season, will bring more attention and scrutiny to Minnesota's quarterback decisions.

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