After An Eventful Month, Trump Has Lost Support In The GOP Primary

Once again, with feeling: a couple of weeks have passed since then The last indictment of former president Donald Trump (This time in Georgia, in connection with his attempts to cancel the elections of 2020 there). It seems that the accusations influenced his chances of returning to the White House?

After each of the three previous Trump's indictments, His polls have changed in small, inconsistent methods – If they have changed at all. The fourth indictment followed this unhealthy scheme: some data indicate that he received positions in the republican primary elections, other data indicate that he lost it, and what small data on the general elections that we gave, suggest that nothing has changed. And, adding to the disappointment of political drug addicts everywhere, it is very difficult to find out how much the fourth accusatory conclusion influenced the position of Trump in the race, given how close it happened to two other main events on the campaign: The third accusation And Republican Party Presidential DebatsField

Let's take a deeper look at national surveys of republican primary29 of them were completely carried out after News about the fourth indictment has broken Late on the night of August 14, and Trump has since fell from 53 percent on average in polls up to 50 percent. But the indictment in Georgia was spent on another large set of accusations: on August 1, Trump was accused by the federal large jury, as well as for allegedly interference in the 2020 elections. And only five combinations of voters and sponsors conducted polls both between two prosecution conclusions (August 1 and August 14), and after Georgia (from August 14).

“>² This is important because, although we can theoretically compare, say, Emerson's college Poll August 16-17 To him Poll June 19-20It would be impossible to say that a decrease in a point by 3 percent of Trump is due to the charge of Georgia. This could be due to the third indictment or any other combination of events that occurred during these two months.

Then, in order to make issues even more complex, only two of these surveyed conductors completed their survey after indication to the presidential debate of August 23, which could also change the views on Trump. And these two disagree with how much the race has shifted after the prosecution. In accordance with Morning consultationTrump national support among potential primary voters barely moved, from 57 to 58 percent. But, according to the prerequisite, Trump actually increased his figures among republican registered voters during this period, from 54 percent To 60 percentField

This is not what we see when we look at the average support of Trump, which has decreased, but this may be due to the debate that Trump refused to be present. According to three pairs of polls

“>⁴ Whose first half was exhibited after the indictment, but before the debate and the second half of which was exhibited after the debate, the national support of Trump fell on average by 4 points. In addition, a FiveThirtyeight/Washington Post/IPSOS Poll It was carried out using IPSOS knowledge that 5 percent of the republican voters who watched the debate are considering the possibility of voting for Trump before him, but not after that, which makes it Only a candidate to lose significant potential supportField

This is not like the fact that the fourth indictment has also changed many minds among the common voter. The morning consultation and the prerequisite were again the only two polls that asked about the hypothetical match of the general elections between Trump and President Biden during our interests Windows (August 1-14 for the survey, August 15-23 for survey). According to the prerequisite, the registered voters preferred Trump Biden for 4 points before the indictment and 5 points after it – not a statistically significant shift. And, according to Morning Consult, the results were the same (Biden 43 percent, Trump 41 percent) before and after the charge of Georgia.

Another pair of Sollster/Sponsor – IPSOS/ABC News – asked about the general favorable and unfavorable ratings of Trump both before and after the indictment. IN Their survey on August 2-330 percent of adult Americans looked at him positively, and 59 percent looked at him unfavorable. And in them August 15-16 A survey, 31 percent looked at him positively, and 55 percent looked at him unfavorable. This seems to be an improvement, but it was within the error of the survey, so it could just be a noise.

Of course, the thrid three surveys conducted 15 months before the election are not the last word about the fate of Trump in a court of public opinion. The case against Trump in Georgia (in fact, all his accusatory conclusions) could damage or help him over time, especially if he is convicted or justified before the election. It is also possible that all this exercise is mistaken, given that the “before” polls in this analysis all passed within two weeks after the third accusation of Trump; Perhaps the numbers of the polling stations of Trump during this period were already suppressed from these (similar) charges.

But, looking at the overall picture, including the average values ​​of Fivethirtyeight National republican primary elections And General favorable and unfavorable Trump ratings – It is clear that public opinion about Trump has not changed within a few months, even after he was charged with almost 100 criminal charges of four different jurisdictions. After his last indictment is expected, he remains a strong favorite in the primary party of the Republican Party and a competition candidate in a general election.

Correction (August 31, 2023, 8:37 in the morning): The earlier version of this article is incorrectly stated that the support of former President Donald Trump in our national republican primary survey amounted to 50 percent when the news about his indictment in Georgia crashed on August 14. In fact, it was 53 percent.