A spat over Taiwan is threatening China-Japan ties : NPR

BEIJING – Less than a month into his presidency, Japan's conservative leader has ratcheted up tensions with China by suggesting Chinese moves against Taiwan could provoke a military response from Japan.

China objects to the involvement of other countries in Taiwan, particularly the United States, which is the self-governing island's main arms supplier. Beijing claims it as its own and says it should come under its control. It says this is an internal issue and a “red line” that others should not cross.

Takaichi went beyond past Japanese statements

Speaking before a parliamentary committee, Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi said on November 7 that a Chinese naval blockade or other actions against Taiwan could trigger a Japanese military response.

Her comments were stronger than those of her predecessors. Previous prime ministers have expressed concern about China's threat to Taiwan but have not publicly said how Japan would respond.

Takaichi later refused to retract her remarks, but three days later told the same parliamentary committee that she would avoid talking about specific scenarios in the future.

Japan's new leader is a longtime supporter of Taiwan. She views China as a growing threat and has ordered an acceleration of plans to increase Japan's military spending.

Foreign Minister Toshimitsu Motegi said on Friday that Japan's position on Taiwan had not changed.

China responded with stern warnings

Takaichi's comments caused an uproar in China, with the foreign and defense ministries, the Taiwan Affairs Office and state media weighing in.

Her remarks came as a surprise because tensions over Taiwan have not been particularly high, said Wang Huiyao, president of the Center for China and Globalization, a think tank in Beijing.

“We can't just allow the prime minister to speak so openly in parliament,” he said.

One of the first to speak out was China's Consul General in Osaka, who said in a now-deleted social media post that China has no choice but to cut off the invading “dirty neck.” Motegi called the post “highly inappropriate.”

China's Foreign Ministry on Thursday summoned Japan's ambassador to warn against any interference in Taiwan's affairs. The next day, Japan's Foreign Ministry summoned the Chinese ambassador to Tokyo to complain about the social media post.

Beijing ups the ante

On Friday evening, China took aim at Japan's tourism economy. It issued an advisory advising against travel to Japan. Some 7.5 million Chinese tourists visited in the first nine months of this year, the highest number of any country and about a quarter of the total.

China's Ministry of Education on Sunday warned students about recent crimes against Chinese in Japan, although it did not advise them not to go.

Also on Sunday, China's coast guard announced it was patrolling the waters around a group of uninhabited islands claimed by both countries.

Even more worrying for Japan could be China's restrictions on exports of rare-earth magnets, a vital component in automobiles and other industries. There were no immediate signs that China was considering this option.

Japanese officials are trying to calm the situation. Motegi said he plans to ask China to make an “adequate response” to prevent relations from being seriously impacted.

The US-Japan alliance looms in the background

Japan's position is complicated by its post-World War II constitution, which prohibits the use of force except in defense of its territory – the armed forces are called the Self-Defense Forces.

Former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe succeeded in expanding the military's mandate by winning parliamentary approval in 2015 of a law that allows Japan to come to the aid of an ally, most likely the United States, in a conflict considered an existential threat to Japan.

Takaichi, who rose in politics as a protégé of Abe, said China's actions against Taiwan could amount to a threat, setting off the ensuing firestorm.

Another possible threat could be a conflict with North Korea, in which the United States is drawn in, analysts say. Japan has not previously specified what constitutes an existential threat under this provision, which is called collective self-defense.

Tokyo now does not want to withdraw Takaichi's words because it could limit its options in the event of a Taiwan crisis. Reversing the policy could also damage the new prime minister's high public approval ratings and her image as a China hawk.