A prediction market user made $436,000 from bets on Maduro’s downfall

The player made nearly half a million dollars from overthrowing the Venezuelan president shortly before it was officially announced, raising questions about whether anyone benefited from inside information about the US operation.

Bets on Polymarket, a cryptocurrency platform, that Nicolas Maduro would be removed from power by the end of January rose hours before President Donald Trump announced Saturday that the Venezuelan leader had been captured.

One account, which joined the platform last month and took four positions, all on Venezuela, earned more than $436,000 (£322,000) on a $32,537 bet.

It remains unclear who made the bid. The anonymous account had a blockchain ID consisting of letters and numbers.

Data from Polymarket shows that traders estimate the likelihood of Maduro leaving at just 6.5% as of the afternoon of Friday, January 2.

But the odds jumped to 11% just before midnight and increased in the early morning hours of Jan. 3, indicating a sudden change in position just before Trump posted on Truth Social that Maduro was in U.S. custody.

Polymarket did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

Dennis Kelleher, chief executive of Better Markets, a non-partisan group that campaigns for financial reform, told BBC US affiliate CBS: “This particular bet has all the hallmarks of an insider deal.”

Several other Polymarket users also made tens of thousands of dollars betting on Maduro's capture.

Some lawmakers are starting to take notice.

Rep. Ritchie Torres, a New York Democrat, introduced a bill Monday that would prohibit government officials from trading in prediction markets if they have “material nonpublic information” related to the bet.

Betting markets have exploded in popularity in the US in recent years, with companies such as Polymarket and Kalshi allowing users to bet on everything from sports to politics.

Leading companies in the industry have attracted hundreds of millions of dollars in bets on the outcome of the 2024 US presidential election.

Under the Biden administration, the industry has faced regulatory scrutiny. But he received a warmer reception during Trump's presidency.

Donald Trump Jr., the president's son, holds advisory positions at Kalshi and Polymarket.

Insider trading in the stock market is illegal, but there are fewer rules in the prediction markets.

A Kalshi spokesman said the prediction site “explicitly prohibits insider trading in any form, including trading by government officials in government-related prediction markets.”