America is on the verge of state closure. And without an unexpected transaction, at the last minute the question arises, how long it lasts, and what damage it will cause.
Until now, the Democrats have refused to accept a short -term transaction in order to keep the government open at the current levels of financing until mid -November, and the Republicans refused to negotiate the requirements of the democrats to restore financing related to healthcare. President Donald Trump and the leaders of the congress from both sides agreed to meet in the White House on Monday, but if they cannot agree, the government will turn off at 12:01 on Wednesday.
And although previous closures meant temporary snacks or suspension of work, for federal workers who are not considered important president, this struggle may have longer consequences. The Trump administration threatens to use it to dismiss a significant number of employees, achieving their own political goals, while causing maximum pain for the Democrats.
Why did we write this
President Donald Trump and the leaders of Congress agreed to meet on Monday. If they do not reach the transaction, the administration says that it will use a stop to dismiss a significant number of federal employees.
White House Management and Budget Management and Budget I released a memorandum Last week, sending the agency to plan mass dismissals in case of closing, aimed at employees whose programs are not prescribed by law and are not “consistent with the priorities of the president.” Even after the closing, the note says, agencies should save only the “minimum number of employees necessary to fulfill the functions established by law”, increasing the possibility of deep constant reductions in federal programs.
This put in the Senate -democratic leaders in binding. Their voters were furious when they allowed the Republicans to keep the government open in March, and now they spoil the fight. But now, as then, it seems, these leaders have few levers, without a clear endgot and risk serious political and real consequences.
“Democrats should enter this state funding, widely discovered because, since it looks like a trap without a clear exit strategy,” says Rodaadel Mollino, a democratic strategist and former leader of the senior in the Senate.
Until now, the Senate Democrats refused to retreat, saying that the dismissal of the Trump administration did not differ from the earlier waves of mass government dismissals of this administration.
“They still do it. Eat [currently] There is no shutdown. They dismiss all these people, ”said the minority leader in Senate Chuck Schumer from the NBC“ Meeting with the Press ”on Sunday. “They are trying to intimidate the American people and us.”
According to them, part of the main tension for the Democrats is that they cannot trust the Trump administration to honor any agreement. The president and his team repeatedly gutted the programs and fired employees authorized in accordance with previous two -party agreements on allocations. Just as this round of negotiations was heated, the administration decreased by almost $ 4 billion in foreign assistance so that the congress does not receive voting on it. Supreme Court Managing On Friday, that these abbreviations can continue, even more upset the democrats of the congress, who say that the administration usurbs the constitutionally defined power of the wallet using the conservative supreme court.
Republicans seem to be glad that the shutdown will occur if the democrats do not agree to a short -term transaction known as a permanent decision or CR in order to finance the government at the current levels until November 21. The measure accepted the ward, but requires 60 votes to go through the Senate, which requires democratic support.
“It depends on them,” Mr. Trump said on Friday about the democrats. “If you need to turn it off, it will need to be turned off. But they are those who close it. ”
The meeting on Monday is a glimpse of hope after the president canceled the planned discussions last week.
To the “meeting with the press”, Senator Schumer called the planned meeting as “the first step, but only the first step,” saying that only “serious negotiations” can prevent closing.
The leader of the majority in the Senate, John Tun from South Dakota, opposed the Sunday statement that although he welcomed the meeting, “nothing changed” regarding the position of the Republicans. “The choice remains the same: the democrats can either vote for the pure, short-term, non-partial CR, which the priority of the American people, or can choose a completely avoided shutdown that priority for politics is above all,” he said.
Programs of the Trump administration will probably free from the stop, include social security, Medicare, Medicaid, immigration and customs law enforcement, border security, military operations, veterans and control over a ticket. National parks can close, food automatic programs can be affected, and departments, including the environment for environmental protection, as well as management and medicines, will probably see wide workings.
Federal workers consider it necessary and forced to work out the shutdown for free, ultimately received the return payment after previous disconnects – but it is not clear whether the Trump administration will support this this time.
Historically, things that did not go well for the party, which thought it was inciting to close. At this stage, polls show that a little more Americans will be accused of the Republicans, if there is a disconnection, but most people have not tuned in.
A YouGov OLP The released on Thursday found that 37%of adults in the United States will accuse either President Trump or Congress, if the government is disconnected – compared to 25%, who will accuse the Democrats and 26%, who will accuse both sides the same. Mid -September Verasight Poll He established that if the democrats vote against the funding bill after the Republicans refuse to restore healthcare financing, more and more Americans will still accuse the Republicans (35%) than democrats (24%), and 32%accuse both.
In recent years, stops have become more and more common, although the party that called them almost never could extract political concessions. But the impact for the accused party was more and more fleeting.
When the Republicans forced a series of shutdowns in 1995 and 1996 – for the first time in the modern era, when the disconnection was supplanted for political reasons – they paid the price in the urn for voting, as President Bill Clinton was re -elected even after his surveys were claimed.
The 16-day government stop of the Republican government, forced in October 2013, did not earn anything because of Obamacare and could contribute to the governor's loss of the party in Virginia next month. But a year later, the Republicans took off on average.
Democrats forced a three-day shutdown during the first term of Mr. Trump in early 2018 on immigration issues, but quickly curled after the then democratic senator Joe Mancin from West Virginia threatened to resign if they did not retreat. This did not affect the strong results of the party in the intermediate elections of 2018.
Soon after this, Mr. Trump forced the 35-day closure of the government at the end of 2018 and early 2019, the longest in the history of the United States, to try to force the democrats to finance the border wall. He did not receive anything for this, and his surveys sank briefly, but the political consequences quickly disappeared.
This year, democrats lead in disputed governor races with elections in November in Virginia and New Jersey. Especially in Virginia, where many federal workers live, stops risk. And even if this does not affect minimums next year, this may be cold for democrats if the Trump administration uses the moment as an opportunity to further reduce federal labor.
The Republican Strategist Dug Hei worked for a member of leadership from the Republican Party of the House in 2013, when the Republican leaders reluctantly supported the impetus from ordinary members and forced to turn off, only to soften two weeks.
Now he sees how democrats are doing the same thing – they are looking for a struggle in order to calm their base without a realistic goal. It looks like a football player who scores his own goal, “and talks about how much he kicked the ball,” says Mr. Hay.
And the president, who from the first day, was looking for to expand his own powers, at the same time reducing the federal government, he would probably provide as much pressure as possible in this situation, he adds.
“Potential for a long one [shutdown] Very real, ”says Hay,“ is the situation that gives the executive branch more than the authorities, so why does Trump not want this? “
