CNN
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Arizona Senator Kirste Cinema I decided to shake the political world on Friday, becoming independent. The former democrat is still a party in the Senate, so the Democratic Assembly still has 51 members. Now, instead of 49 democrats and two independent in their ranks, in the meeting of 48 democrats and three independent ones.
But this simple mathematics hides a more blurred picture for the Democrats and the very blue. The interests of the blue are no longer necessarily the best interests of the Democrats in the next Congress, and the Senate map of 2024 has become even more difficult for democrats with the decision of Cinema.
To be clear, Cinema has always been a spike on the side of the Democrats during her stay in the Congress. Over the past two years, the democrats almost always had to make sure that any bill or nomination received Sinema support to have any chances of the passage. This is mathematics when you have only 50 seats in the Senate in the cell for 100 seats. Many accounts and nominations never voted for Without blue and manchin.
Since 2013 (the first term of Cinema in Congress) until 2020, sinema Voted against their party More than almost any other member of the Congress. She remained with the party in about 69% of cases on votes, where at least half of the democrats voted differently than half of the Republicans. The average democrat voted with his party at about 90% of the time on these voices.
It is possible that the percentage of blue adheres to the party, now it will be independent. Consider the example of the former Senator Joe Lieberman. A longtime democrat won the re -election as a third -party candidate in 2006 after the loss of primary democrats to the left applicant (now a rather moderate governor of Connecticut Neda Lamont)
Compared to the average democrat, the Senate Liberman voted with a party at 10 points less time after he became independent than he for a last term as a democrat. If this happens with Sinema, it will become even more conservative than Joe Mancin from Western Virginia (the most conservative member of the democratic assembly).
It will make sense, because the stimulating structure is now very different for Sinema. In anticipation of the campaign to re -election in 2024, she no longer needs to worry about the victory of the democratic primary elections. Cinema should worry about creating a coalition of democrats, independent and republicans. This is much more difficult to do if you think too liberal.
Indeed, the big reason why Cinema became independent is that it would be very difficult to win democratic primary elections. Her rating of approval among the democrats of Arizona in Autumn 2022 The survey amounted to only 25%. A number of democrats (for example, a member of the House of Representatives Ruben Gallego and a member of the House of Greg Stanton) were already lined up to potentially challenge her at the primary.
Currently, the question is whether the decision of the blue will become independent to dissuade some of these democrats. The idea is that Sinema is still gathering with the Democrats, and the Democrats would not want to divide a democratic vote in a general election, allowing the Republicans to win in a violet state, like Arizona.
This is an interesting bet from Sinema. In the end, democrats usually do not manage a candidate against independent Senator Bernie Sanders in Vermont. Democrats who are faced with independent Senator Angus King in the state of Man did not receive traction in a recent election. Do not forget that the aforementioned Lieberman won as a third -party candidate.
However, the electoral mathematical structure was and is completely different in these circumstances. Sanders will not attract the left democratic applicant, because he is already so progressive. Lieberman announced his third -party candidate after the primary, so the Republicans did not have time to find a famous applicant. The Republicans also knew that Lieberman, who was an ardent supporter of the war in Iraq, was probably the best that they could hope for the deeply democratic state of Connecticut.
This leaves an example of the king. The king, like Cinema, is moderate from not a deeply blue or red state. In this analogy there is only one problem for Sinema: the king is popular. Previously, he won the governorship twice as an independent and almost always wore high favorites.
Sinema is not at all popular. A Poll CES She had her rating of approval below her rating of disapproval with democrats, independent and Republicans in Arizona. The total approval of Sinema amounted to 25% to the limitation limit of 58%. Other polls are not so terrible for Sinema, but on average, all this makes her firmly be more unpopular than popular.
In other words, the current Sinema numbers probably will not scare away many applicants from either the democratic or republican side. In addition, the Democrats have no reason to give in to the Earth with syneme, because this does not give the Republican from victory. It is not at all clear that Sinema can win as independent.
The fact that Sinema took is that he complicated the mathematics of voters in Arizona and, therefore, at the national level. The presence of two people in the race who gather for a meeting with the Democratic Party probably complicates the victory of the Democrats.
One of the potential alarming examples for the democrats in the purple state (at least then) was the race in the Senate of Florida of 2010. Then the Republican Governor Charlie Kriste decided to flee as an independent after it became clear that he would not win the more conservative Republican Marco Rubio in the republican primary elections. The Christ, who said that he would gather with the democrats, shared the voting of the Democrats with the then member of a member of a member of a member of a member of Kendrick Mick, and Rubio made to win.
I have to note that the Democrats, of course, have a chance. For example, two democrats (Mike Gravl, and then Senator Ernest Gruning, participated in the 1968 Senate Race in the Senate of Alaska as a record). The gravel won the state that Republican Richard Nixon also carried several points.
In 2024, Republicans from Arizona could appoint an extreme candidate who was upset. They just lost every large race throughout the state in 2022 from the one whom they nominated.
Do not reject the opportunity also that Sinema can win how Harry Berd did in 1970 Elections to the Senate of Virginia When both parties appointed candidates. Maybe voters will like the new independent registration of Sinema.
Cinema also could have turned out that she was puffed when I ran in a general election, without the main party that supports her, like Gruning, this was done in 1968, or the then Senator Jacob Javit in the Senate race in the New York 1980.
We just don't know.
All this is said that the Democrats already have a difficult map, heading in 2024.
The vast majority, 23 out of 34, senators for re -election in 2024 with democrats. An abnormally large number (7) represents the states of Republican Donald Trump at least once. This includes Arizona.
With a separation of Cinema from the Democratic Party, the road, if nothing else, is a snack for the Democrats.
