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A stack of SpaceX Starlink satellites before being launched into Earth orbit. | 1 credit
This year we will see a massive migration of SpaceX Starlink satellites.
All Starlink broadband spacecraft, currently orbiting at an altitude of 342 miles (550 kilometers) or so. Earth — about 4,400 satellites — will descend to an altitude of about 298 miles (480 km) during 2026.
According to Michael Nicholls, vice president of Starlink Engineering, there are two main reasons for this move. SpaceXwho announced the plan through X on Thursday (January 1).
“As solar minimum approaches, the density of the atmosphere decreases, meaning that the ballistic decay time at any given altitude increases – a reduction would mean a reduction in ballistic decay time at solar minimum by over 80%, or a reduction from 4+ years to a few months,” Nicholls wrote in his X-post. “Accordingly, the number debris items and planned satellite constellations are well below 500 km, reducing the cumulative probability of collision.”
Solar activity waxes and wanes on an 11-year cycle. We have probably just passed the maximum phase of the current one, known as Solar cycle 25. (Scientists have carefully tracked these cycles. since 1755when the numbering system began.) The next solar minimum is expected around 2030.
As Nicholls noted, atmospheric changes caused by solar activity are of great interest and importance to satellite operators. An active Sun leads to the formation of a denser atmosphere, which increases the frictional drag of spacecraft and speeds up their fall. Low solar activity has the opposite effect.
The downward migration in 2026 will affect roughly half of SpaceX's Starlink megaconstellation, which currently consists of nearly 9,400 operational spacecraft (though that number is small). always growing). The fleet is highly reliable; According to Nicholls, there are only two dead Starlinks currently in orbit.
“However, if a satellite fails in orbit, we want it to deorbit as quickly as possible,” he wrote. “These actions will further enhance the group's security, especially in the event of difficult-to-control risks such as uncoordinated maneuvers and launches of other satellite operators“
Low Earth orbit (LEO) is getting more and more crowded these days. Starlink is the main driver; about two-thirds of all active satellites belong to the megaconstellation. But other giant networks are being created. For example, China began to build two Internet constellations LEO, if all goes according to plan, each will include more than 10,000 spacecraft.
