Two things will happen to Canada's fiscal office this year: temporary parliamentary budget officer Jason Jacques will be replaced or made permanent, and the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) will release its review of the office.
While the OECD report won't be released for several months, John Blondahl, head of the OECD's public management and budgeting division who oversees it, told CBC News the feedback so far has been positive.
“I think Canada is very fortunate to have a PBO and a body that is respected by seemingly every stakeholder that we've talked to,” he said.
While the OECD has its eye on the PBO office rather than any specific PBO, economists in Canada do both.
They say that just because an office has a solid reputation, this does not mean that it cannot be improved.
These economists say they should start with more numbers and less commentary from whoever is appointed to run the office, and – when possible – they would like to see greater use of peer review for their reports.
The changes, economists say, will help the office project a semblance of objectivity as well as its ability to identify potential errors or points that could be taken out of context in a politically charged environment.
“Any time you have an analysis of a complex policy, particularly the forward-looking consequences of that policy, there will be reasonable room for disagreement,” said Trevor Tombe, director of fiscal and economic policy at the University of Calgary's school of public policy.
Former TD Bank chief economist Don Drummond, who also held a number of senior positions at the Treasury Department, told CBC News that analyzing large numbers and complex economic models is difficult and can often lead to mistakes – and that's okay.
“The initial mistake rarely matters much. It all depends on what happens next,” he said, quoting economist Edmund Clarke, his former boss at TD.
Fewer adjectives
Call for fewer comments comes after Jacques' remarks controversial speech before a parliamentary committee in September, when he described the state of Canada's federal finances as “staggering”, “shocking” and “unsustainable”.
Kevin Page, Canada's first PBO and president of the Institute for Fiscal Studies and Democracy at the University of Ottawa, responded passionately to Jacques' remarks, saying: CBC Power and politics a few days later the current PBO was “just wrong” and his thinking “didn't match the numbers.”
“There should be no commentary, no political commentary, no analytical commentary beyond the scope of the report,” Page said most recently. “I think the parliamentary budget officer should be neutral about the policy implications.”
Former parliamentary budget officer Kevin Page has criticized interim People's Bank chief Jason Jacques for his warnings about the “staggering” and “unsustainable” financial situation last week. Page says Jacques' language is “simply wrong”, that Canada's finances are sound and that Jacques needs to retract his comments for the good of the office.
While Drummond, Page's former boss at the Treasury Department, agreed with Jacques' views on the state of Canada's finances, he was also less than enthusiastic about the committee's NBO language.
“Judging by all the adjectives he used, maybe this isn't his place,” Drummond said. “He really put in the effort, but I have to admit… I think the numbers are concerning.”
Different views on sustainability
Christopher Ragan, founding director of McGill's Max Bell School of Public Policy and former chair of the Environmental Commission of Canada, says the country's finances look strong for now. But he says a major shock like the COVID pandemic, or two smaller shocks in quick succession, would push Canada dangerously close to its debt wall.
Reaching this limit will affect Canada's credit rating and its ability to borrow cash. Potential impacts, Ragan said, should be determined based on numbers, not comments.
“I think we want them to be like, 'Just the facts, ma'am,'” he said.
Jacques told CBC News that before his September committee appearance, his office had reached an agreement on the federal government's level of fiscal sustainability, but he says he went too far, using words like “stunning” and “shocking.”
He softened his tongue his analysis after the publication of the November federal budget.
Acting Parliamentary Budget Officer Jason Jacques, speaking to a parliamentary committee on September 25, 2025, says “this is not a funny budget forecast.” This is a really serious financial forecast.”
“When I'm in committee and I use them, when I use that language, it distracts parliamentarians from understanding the problem and from everyone focusing on…those two words,” Jacques said.
He said figures in his September analysis stand up on your own.
If he becomes the permanent PBO after his six-month temporary position ends, Jacques says he wants the office to emulate the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), where the person leading it is virtually unknown but his work still contributes to public debate.
“I would be willing to bet good money that you don’t know who the head of the CBO is or what he looks like,” Jacques said. “In the case of the US, they focus on institutions and numbers.”
Carbon Pricing and Expertise
Blondal said the OECD review will look at how NBOs confront nine key principles. One such criterion is external evaluation: the extent to which the PBO uses peer review for its research, whether the institution itself is audited annually, and whether it seeks advice from outside experts to focus its point of view.
According to Jacques, PBO does peer review some of its work. But questions surrounding how the latest PBO assessed the carbon tax have prompted economists to suggest it could be used more widely.
The political whirlwind erupted after March 2022 reportand an updated report the following year in which the PBO examined whether households received more or less from carbon rebates in Canada than what they paid in carbon prices.
By this measure, most Canadians got back more than they paid. But the report also analyzed how much a carbon tax costs the economy and found that when it was measured, most households were worse off.
This analysis misses any benefits of “climate change mitigation,” Drummond said.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer has once again clarified the carbon tax figures. The latest report shows that most families are getting ahead, but it comes at a cost to the economy. Yves Giroud explains his findings on the cost of a carbon tax.
“I was very upset that the Parliamentary Budget Office did this. It was very casual. And you either put in both sides or stick to static calculations.”
Page and Ragan also took issue with PBO's analysis of carbon pricing, noting that it does not compare a carbon pricing system to the absence of climate policy or policy alternatives.
“I think in this case they probably didn’t have outside reviewers,” Ragan said.
Tombe said the PBO focused on the financial implications of a carbon tax and it shouldn't be expected to consider every possible aspect of a particular policy when conducting its study.
“I think the problem with the way this carbon tax document came about was how many people involved in this debate lack good faith,” he said. “This is not a criticism of PBO.”
“It will be controversial”
Jacques said the methodology of those reports was not peer-reviewed until they were updated in 2024, when the analysis was conducted. fixed for an unrelated reason — erroneous inclusion of the price of industrial carbon in consumer price calculations.
He said that even if there is no formal peer review process for a report, the PO always communicates with people as they work. His office told CBC News it “consulted” with experts from Environment and Climate Change Canada and Finance Canada to prepare the 2022 report.
When it came to the 2024 update, which filtered out the industrial carbon price, Jacques' office said the PBO received “feedback” from the Congressional Budget Office and the Netherlands Bureau of Economic Policy Analysis (it's equivalent to the Canadian PBO) on methodology and assumptions.
He said he was open to expanding the use of peer review, especially for reports that venture into politically fraught territory, but noted that it would not eliminate all potential controversy.
“The office's mandate is to get numbers on the things that parliamentarians debate and vote on. And if it is discussed and voted on in parliament, it will be controversial,” he said.
When the OECD report is published, it is unlikely to focus specifically on carbon pricing analysis, but it will provide a view on the use of peer-reviewed PBOs.
Jacques, who has worked for the PBO for 17 years, said that whether or not he remains with the PBO after March 3, he will remain to help the new PBO continue to operate and improve how it carries out its mission of providing independent costing for government programs.
