The NFL Coach of the Year award is simple. This is usually my fault. We're sorry that our preseason predictions for your team were wrong.
In theory, it's a straight line: the award goes to the coach who oversaw the biggest change. In practice, it's an annual debate about expectations and whether we reward actual learning or just the greatest surprise.
But this year's race is a little different. The pool of candidates is unusually wide. It was season rpm The league is in turmoil, with recent division winners falling out of contention and recent losers all growing up together. In a normal year, Sean Payton leading the Broncos to the top of the AFC would make him the absolute favorite. But in this chaotic and fun year, he will be up against five other outstanding candidates.
This is how the ballot should turn out.
5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, 11-5
Coach of the Year voters love quarterbacks. They always did this. Sean McVay in 2017. Kevin Stefanski in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. If you fix the quarterback, you're already halfway there.
Ben Jonson didn't just cure Caleb Williams; he unlocked it. In the right ecosystem, Williams had the chance to showcase his otherworldly talent. As of Week 9, the Bears rank fourth in offensive EPA per game. This is not a streak of success – this is sustained excellence. Under Johnson, Williams became more decisive, less reckless, and willingly surrendered himself to the scheme rather than going freelance. This offense is built entirely in Johnson's image: aggressive ball-handling, a heavy dose of play-action, and a creative passing attack that gets receivers wide open. everywhere. Williams took advantage. And when there were no opportunities, he could create magic out of nothing.
Johnson arrived in Chicago with a clear offensive vision. Almost every bet—rebuilding the offensive line, adding tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower—has paid off. That's rare for a first-time head coach. And it's even rarer for a coach to walk into the building with expectations like Johnson's. For two consecutive cycles, he was the most popular name in the coaching market. But when it comes to appointing a head coach, there is no clear consensus. Somehow, Johnson met—and even exceeded—expectations. He turned out to be not just a sketchy jerk, but also the kind of culture builder who can breathe new life into an organization.
In a normal year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But this is no ordinary season!
Where Johnson's candidacy has fallen (a little) short is on defense. The Bears currently rank 25th in scoring defense. They live off RPMs, and RPMs are notoriously unreliable. Coaches can emphasize breaking the ball, but no one can guarantee it. Johnson is on the ballot because crime is real. It's not higher because variance does too much of the defensive work. With a couple of bounces of the ball, the Bears would have been two wins worse. This was an exceptional turnaround and laid the foundation for long-term success. But Johnson fails here.
4) Liam Cohen, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4
Cohen is in the same position as Johnson. He is another first-time head coach who has made a quick turnaround. Throughout the year, Trevor Lawrence plays his role. best all-around ball of his career. And he also oversaw a rebuild of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in EPA per game.
What's even more impressive is that Cohen has had success off the field, something that wasn't a given after his stupid opening press conference and some of his offseason decisions.
Cohen arrived in Jacksonville with an unusually inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded himself with the perfect coaching cocktail of youth and experience, Cohen relied on newcomers. From the head coach himself to the coordinators and coaches, the Jags are loaded with newbies. A system like this is interesting in theory, but often fails in practice (Nathaniel Hackett's Broncos is a cautionary tale) because everyone learns a new job on the fly. But Cohen brought everyone and everything together.
After the initial hot start, there was a possibility that the season would go downhill. A midseason collapse against Houston sent the Jags faltering again. Usually coaches overcorrect. Cohen didn't. Instead, he simplified the situation. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started looking for sustainable ones. Cohen focused on Jakobi Meyers and the running game and asked Lawrence to use his legs more.
The results are obvious. The Jags have won seven games in a row and will be in third place in the AFC playoffs. Cohen took the smallest hit in the standings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has proven he can maximize that talent.
3) Mike McDonald, Seattle Seahawks, 13-3
In every Coach of the Year case, there is a defining moment. For Mike McDonald, it was a quarterback decision.
Moving on from Geno Smith, signing Sam Darnold and pairing him with offensive coordinator Clint Kubiak could end the season in October. Instead, he defined it. Midway through the year, Darnold was MVP Leader. He's fallen since then, falling to 23rd in EPA in passing yards in the second half of the season, putting him just one spot ahead of JJ McCarthy and behind Baker Mayfield.
However, the Seahawks continue to rack up wins. McDonald made his three biggest decisions this offseason: quarterback, coordinator and personality. He also plays as a cornerback for the second-ranked defense in the league. Without that defensive firepower, the Seahawks' season would have been a bust as Darnold went through a slump.
Seattle's preseason win total was seven and a half. They currently sit in first place in the NFC with 13 wins and the best point differential in the conference. If they beat the Niners on Sunday, they will secure the one seed. In a brutal division, MacDonald not only exceeded expectations, he destroyed them.
2) Mike Vrabel, New England Patriots, 13-3
There are changes, as well as what Vrabel did in New England. The Patriots weren't just bad last season. They were aimless, lacking talent and ideas. It looks like they were looking at years of renovations, hoping they could anything around Drake May to see what they have in the young defender. Instead, they are the AFC East champions, have by far the best point differential in the conference, and Maye is the MVP favorite.
Of course, you can point to the Patriots' historical weakness in knocking out Vrabel. But this ignores the fact that the Patriots were hardly contenders to begin with. The schedule may be soft, but every team considered the Patriots to be the weak spot in their schedule early in the season.
A roster that looked devoid of talent now punches above its weight, relying on experienced players, newcomers and May to combine for 13 wins.
Vrabel's fingerprints are all over the transformation. Last offseason, he had the final say on personnel matters, and almost every decision turned out to be successful. He brought back Josh McDaniels as offensive coordinator, not for a nostalgia play, but to bring some professionalism back into the operation. When defensive coordinator Terrell Williams left the team to undergo treatment for cancer, Vrabel handed the reins to unknown Zach Coore, who could call plays while taking on most of the day-to-day duties. The Patriots are ineffective defensively, but they are fifth in points per game. In attack they made a real splash. After practicing last week, the Jets rank first in the league in EPA per game. Soft schedule or not, they took advantage of it.
Vrabel's job this season has been to make the Patriots respectable again. He did more than that. Even with many injuries, the Patriots are a serious contender with the quarterback being the team's MVP.
1) Kyle Shanahan, San Francisco 49ers, 12-4
What is the job of a head coach? The goal is to empower your players to succeed and find solutions when problems arise. Every other candidate on this list has done it, but no one has done it to the extent of Shanahan.
No coach has faced more challenges than Shanahan. The Niners lost Nick Bosa and Fred Warner to start the season. They played most of the year without Brock Purdy and George Kittle. They haven't had Brandon Aiyuk all year. Each week another difference maker is out of the lineup due to injury. Still, they're 12-4 and have a chance to clinch first place in the NFC heading into the final week of the season. Oh, and this comes after an offseason purge that stripped away major pieces of the team's recent core.
This is where expectation bias usually kills a candidate. Shanahan is supposed be good. The 49ers are supposed to win. Barring a historic season, these coaches rarely succeed. But this season should break that trend. Putting together the sixth-best offense in the league when the only reliable player was Christian McCaffrey is a remarkable feat.
This is the most adaptive version of Shanahan we've seen. The form of the crime changed weekly. The defense survived due to tenacity and vibration, not stars. It wasn't always pretty, but it was effective.
Coach of the Year should reward the coach who solves the most difficult problems. No one has solved more of them this season than Kyle Shanahan. To even be competitive in some games given the injury problems was a minor miracle. And now the Niners are healthy enough be a problem in the postseason.
