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A year-end Nanos poll suggests Canadians will want to see the Liberal government act on important economic issues in the new year.
Just over one in five respondents to a survey released this week said jobs and the economy are the most important national issues — more than double the 10 percent who said the relationship with the United States and President Donald Trump was their top priority.
Inflation, health care and immigration round out the top five concerns for Canadians.
A separate Nanos survey, also released this week, shows consumer confidence is in neutral heading into the new year.
In both surveys, Nanos surveyed more than 1,000 people in the four weeks leading up to December 26th. The sociologist indicates an error of plus or minus three percentage points, in 19 cases out of 20.
Jobs and trade uncertainty
Chief data scientist Nick Nanos said the U.S. economy and relationships will compete to top voters' priorities throughout 2025.
While the issue of jobs has taken center stage in recent polls, he noted that the uncertainty clouding trade relations with the United States is also fueling questions about how the Canadian economy will perform in 2026.
Nanos said consumers were pessimistic about their personal finances, putting them in a state of “anxious anticipation” as the new year approached.
It remains to be seen whether that worry will cause Canadians to delay major purchases, setting off a cycle that could hobble the economy next year, he said.
“It's too early to talk about it. But I think right now, at least for many Canadians, it's kind of a wait-and-see situation,” Nanos said.
Liberals ahead of Conservatives
Prime Minister Mark Carney came to power this year in spring elections, in part by positioning himself as the man best equipped to deal with Trump and the economic turmoil he has unleashed.
In the months following the election, he created new agencies to quickly build housing and major projects, cut income taxes for most Canadians and increased the federal budget deficit to focus on capital investment.
While many Canadians face growing financial pressure, political leaders are highlighting social programs and tax cuts as evidence they are trying to help. However, even as inflation has stabilized, food prices in particular have risen significantly again this year.
Although Carney's Liberal government has gained two more seats before the end of 2025 thanks to the passage of Conservative MPs, the party is still one seat short of becoming a majority government.
If the minority Liberal government fails a vote of confidence, it could trigger a new federal election.
The Nanos poll shows the Liberals leading the Conservatives 38.4% to 34.1% for the year. Carney maintains preferred prime minister status at 48.6%, ahead of Conservative Pierre Poiliève with 27.6%.
Poilievre faces a mandatory leadership review at the Conservative convention in January after the party failed to win April's federal election.
Skepticism about promises to fix long-standing problems
Nanos said that while Canadians want to see action on issues such as housing and food costs, for now they may be skeptical of any politician promising to address long-standing cost of living issues.
Nanos said Poilievre and the conservatives likely have the edge in voters' minds when it comes to inflation, but Carney likely still has more confidence in negotiating a deal with Trump.
US President Donald Trump addressed Americans from the White House on Wednesday evening, saying the US economy was strengthening despite weak hiring and high inflation.
“I think we're talking about a battle of issues on the ballot,” Nanos said.
“If the focus is on Donald Trump and the Americans, I expect Mark Carney to prevail. “If the focus is on rising food prices, rising housing costs will likely give Pierre Poilievre an advantage.”
NDP could be the deciding factor
With support between the Liberals and Conservatives close to the margin of error, Nanos said the NDP, which currently has a vote share of 11.2%, could be the deciding factor in the next election.
The Conservatives will want to see the NDP revived after the upcoming leadership fight to lure progressive voters away from the Liberals, he said.
As the calendar turns, many Canadians who expected to see results on important economic issues such as U.S. trade and affordability may begin to be disappointed if they don't believe the Liberals have lived up to the ambitions of their 2025 campaign, Nanos said.
Come 2026, Poilievre will be an opportunity to remind voters of the extraordinary promises Carney made “last year,” he said.
“I think the Carney government needs to beware of grumpy voters who want action and want to see results.”
