LONDON — Against the backdrop of this extraordinary triumph, it is perhaps worth reflecting on how implausible such a result might have seemed a quarter of an hour later. Given that many of Arsenal's recent one-goal wins have been beatings in disguise, it is perhaps fitting that destroying the title contender's paper tiger would allow the Gunners to avoid a rather nasty cut.
It's not that Aston Villa were necessarily better than Arsenal in the league. The Gunners' 4-1 win on Tuesday. Their victory was not inevitable. However, it seemed as if Unai Emery had Mikel Arteta's number. Villa will absorb the force of the first press, find a way to get Arsenal out of position and make good on their transition threats.
Ollie Watkins continued to torment his boyhood club, his ability to evade duels making for a striker who could have as much fun playing William Saliba as anyone. Just like three-and-a-half weeks ago, Villa found ways to quickly score behind Watkins and also found ways to clear shots. Before the strange garbage time, Arsenal had only allowed one shot of more than 0.5 xG in a Premier League match this season. It fell to Watkins at Villa Park and he followed it up with an almost equally disappointing miss early on, managing to slip away after brilliant work to put him in scoring position.
The muscularity with which Ezri Konsa took the ball away from Victor Giokeres and the precision of the pass that followed exemplified Villa's excellent start. Emery knew which matches his side would dominate and this game had a way of putting them in positions that would allow them to make a statement. Even in the Premier League, there are few players that Mikel Merino can fend off. In the first half, he failed to get the better of Amadou Onana, the main press attacker. He was at the peak of his momentum and Arsenal were missing the only player who could stop him: Declan Rice, who was sidelined with a minor knee injury. Even if Rice had lost, he would have had enough recovery momentum to win the second fight. When Merino was taken out of the move, he had no intention of returning.
Perhaps if Onana had managed to come out for the second half, this game would have turned out differently.
“It probably didn’t help that Onana was injured,” Emery said. “He's important for us at set pieces and in the middle.”
This loss of fizz in the center, already reduced by the suspension of Boubacar Camara, hit hard. Before Onana left, there was a very real risk that Villa's vertical passing would break through Arsenal's defensive line.
The hosts found themselves in a hopeless situation. They are a very good pressing team and it is right for very good pressing teams to aim for such high numbers. This would have been obvious in the second half, but in the first half the difference was very subtle. Gabriel chased Morgan Rogers right into the middle of the Villa area. He was inches away from an interception that would have surely led to Martin Odegaard's first strike. Instead, he failed to win the ball, and in the blink of an eye, Onana was racing down the field. If he hadn't sold himself out blatantly, he might have been able to create an even better chance for Villa than the ones they spurned.
Arteta knew the danger his team was in.
“The moment you allow them to attack your back becomes a big problem because they have inside runners, they have people who can take passes from deep positions, they have back row players who are excellent at making runs, pulling their shoulders and attacking your back. And you have to control it because every time you give the ball away, they have the opportunity to do it,” he said.
In the 45th minute, it looked like Arsenal were playing with fire. In the second, they purposefully walked on coals. There have been changes in the press, which Arteta described as some changes in “behaviour”. What was left out, however, was what would seem to be the most natural reaction of any coach in that position. No dialing. No steps back. Arsenal will chase the ball with even more intensity, put in even more effort in pursuit of the ball.
“I really like it,” Arteta said, “because you have to go through different periods and periods against a strong opponent like Villa and then you still have the opportunity to prove yourself in the game and deserve to win it.”
The first goal may not have come as a result of Arsenal's pursuit – set piece again, set piece again, as they say, 'around these parts' – but the killer second goal was confirmation of their aggression. Youri Tielemans may have thought he had broken through the goal line, but Jadon Sancho was plowed into like a child in a bumper car by Odegaard, who recovered the ball more than anyone else on the pitch tonight. The dancing legs led him away from John McGinn, and suddenly the holes in his intestines that Villa had exploited were revealed to them. Martin Zubimendi drove by.
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All that was needed from now on was to restore some xG balance to the world. For most of December, Arsenal couldn't hit a barn door from six yards out. Of course, the month ended with Leandro Trossard and Gabriel Jesus pinning them down on the edge of the box. With counters from range that even Steph Curry couldn't keep away, they pushed Villa towards the title and ended this game by scoring one of the three shots they took with <0.8 xG.
Even with these incredible chances Villa found a way to throw them away, they still somehow lost on xG. Rarely has a statistic captured the difference between two teams so convincingly. Even when Arsenal indulged in their madness, they couldn't make themselves a worse team. Even when their plan seemed completely inadequate to their opponents, they were simply able to make it better and prove their superiority.
