Escalation in Yemen threatens to reignite civil war, widen tensions in Gulf : NPR

Yemen's Southern Transitional Council President Aidarus Al-Zubaidi is interviewed September 22, 2023 in New York while attending the annual high-level meeting of world leaders of the United Nations General Assembly.

Ted Shaffrey/AP


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Ted Shaffrey/AP

DOHA, Qatar — Saudi Arabia bombed the Yemeni port city of Mukalla on Tuesday, targeting an arms shipment from the United Arab Emirates for separatist forces, a significant move in a country along a key international trade route that threatens to bring new risks to the Gulf region. The UAE later said it would withdraw its troops from Yemen.

The separatist Southern Transitional Council (STC), a group backed by the United Arab Emirates, seized much of Hadhramaut and Mahra provinces, including oil facilities, this month.

Yemen has been mired in a civil war for more than a decade that involves a complex interplay of sectarian grievances and the involvement of regional powers.

The Iran-aligned Houthis control the most populous regions of the country, including the capital Sanaa. Meanwhile, a loose regional coalition of powers including Saudi Arabia and the UAE has backed an internationally recognized government in the south.

The war created a humanitarian crisis and destroyed the economy. However, violence has gradually decreased since 2022 as the sides reached a stalemate in the war.

The actions of the UAE-backed separatists are destroying political agreements between the anti-Houthi partners.

Origins of the crisis

The war in Yemen began in 2014 when the Houthis emerged from their northern stronghold of Saada. They captured the capital Sanaa and forced the internationally recognized government to leave the country. Saudi Arabia and the UAE went to war the following year in an attempt to restore the government.

The new fighting pits the STC against forces from the internationally recognized government and its allied tribes, although they are both members of the camp fighting Houthi rebels in the country's wider civil war.

The STC is the most powerful faction in southern Yemen, enjoying crucial financial and military support from the UAE. It was created in April 2017 as an umbrella organization for groups seeking to restore South Yemen as an independent state, as it was between 1967 and 1990.

The latest moves have strengthened the STC's position in southern Yemen, which could give them leverage in any future negotiations to resolve the Yemen conflict. The STC has long demanded that any settlement give southern Yemen the right to self-determination.

The STC enjoys loyalty across much of southern Yemen. It is headed by Aidarous al-Zubaidi, who is also vice-president of the country's Presidential Leadership Council, the ruling body of the internationally recognized government.

STC and other UAE-backed groups now control much of the southern half of Yemen, including important port cities and islands.

The other side of the latest fighting is the Yemeni military, which reports to the internationally recognized government. They are allies of the Hadramut Tribal Alliance, a local tribal coalition backed by Saudi Arabia.

These forces are concentrated in Yemen's largest province, Hadhramaut, which stretches from the Gulf of Aden in the south to the border with Saudi Arabia in the north. The oil-rich province is the main source of fuel for southern Yemen.

Separatists advance this month

Earlier this month, STC forces marched into Hadhramaut and took control of key provincial installations, including PetroMasila, Yemen's largest oil company, after brief clashes with government troops and their tribal allies.

This comes after the Saudi Arabia-backed Hadhramaut Tribal Alliance seized the PetroMasila oil facility in late November to pressure the government to agree to its demands for a larger share of oil revenues and better services for Hadhramaut residents.

It appears that the STC used this move as a pretext to fight for control of Hadhramaut and its oil facilities and to expand the territories under its control in Yemen.

STC forces then moved into Mahra province on the border with Oman and took control of the border crossing between the two countries. In Aden, UAE-backed forces also seized the presidential palace, which serves as the seat of the ruling Presidential Council.

Saudi troops also withdrew earlier this month from bases in Aden, a Yemeni government spokesman said. The withdrawal was part of a Saudi “repositioning strategy,” said the official, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss the matter.

On Friday, Saudi Arabia launched airstrikes in the Hadhramaut region, which analysts saw as a warning to the separatists to stop their offensive and leave the provinces of Hadhramaut and Mahra.

The fragile situation was destroyed

The escalation broke the relative calm in Yemen's war, which had stalled in recent years after the Houthis reached a deal with Saudi Arabia that stopped their attacks on the kingdom in exchange for a halt to Saudi-led strikes on their territories.

The escalation underscores strained relations between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi, which have supported rival sides in Yemen's decade-long war against Iran-backed Houthi rebels amid tensions throughout the Red Sea region. The two countries, although closely linked on many issues in the Middle East, increasingly compete with each other on economic issues and politics in the region.

Earlier this month, the United Arab Emirates said Yemen's governance and territorial integrity was “a matter that must be resolved by the Yemeni parties themselves.”

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