Adam Froman says Canada's economic future depends on a small group of companies.
Adam Froman is the founder and CEO of Delvinia.
Here's the ugly truth: We're approaching 2026 with more uncertainty than any Canadian tech expansion founder or CEO has seen in a long time, if ever.
Trade and tariff wars have only just begun to take their toll. Capital markets are cautious. Clients delay decisions. Governments are signaling ambition but struggling to deliver on it. Even with billions of dollars pouring into artificial intelligence, there is great uncertainty about whether and when all this investment will pay off or is a bubble about to burst. Latest Bank of Canada news Review of business prospects reports that more than 60 percent of firms expect weaker or highly uncertain sales growth, the highest level in more than a decade.
Canada's economic future depends disproportionately on a very small group of companies – companies that have moved beyond the start-up stage and need to expand in Canada or will be acquired by foreign firms.
Scaling is less than eight percent Among all Canadian firms, they nonetheless account for a huge share of job creation, productivity growth and innovation. Their CEOs are typically the founders of these companies, which rank among Canada's best-performing businesses, typically earning between $10 million and $500 million in annual revenue.
Research from the Innovation Policy Laboratory at the University of Toronto shows that scale-up companies are more likely to export, invest in R&D, and generate patents than the average Canadian business, making them the country's most innovation-intensive and economically significant firms.
The current uncertainty is particularly destabilizing for leaders of scale-up companies. The challenge is not simply to make more important decisions. The fact is that as companies grow, forces beyond their control become increasingly influential.
Scale-up executives are looking over their shoulders at interest rates, government policy changes, procurement delays, changing risk appetites in financial institutions and global volatility. Of course, they affect all participants in the economy, but when scaled up, one external shock can undo months of progress. The bigger you get, the more insecure you become.
As a founder and CEO who has scaled companies in Canada, I've experienced how unpredictable things become as you grow. It's not fear that arises, but awareness of what could go wrong and how bad it is. When you're small, you can move fast. When you scale, the stakes go up and the variables multiply.
Well-founded concerns
As we head into 2026, I haven't felt this much uncertainty since 2009, when we were grappling with the fallout from the financial crisis and the subprime mortgage collapse. I know I'm not the only person with CEO experience who feels this way. This is not panic, but it is a well-founded fear. The distinction matters.
Leadership in uncertain times also carries weight that is often invisible. As former US President Barack Obama once said, leaders “bring all the blame and little credit.” This is exactly what it feels like to run a scaling company now.
I know Canadian scale-up leaders will handle these pressures in stride. They remain resilient because others depend on them. They make tough decisions even when the situation keeps changing.
Here's a convenient truth. Canadian founders have always acted beyond their capabilities. They built companies with limited capital, overcame political differences, and scaled despite systems moving slower than them. Their resilience remains one of Canada's strongest economic assets.
But sustainability alone will not allow us to easily scale up to 2026. They and the business leaders who manage them will need additional support.
The institutions associated with our expansion must move in step with this business. It's time for government to match the urgency that CEOs live with every day, and especially now.
Financial institutions must maintain momentum rather than tighten policy. The Government of Canada is calling for a stronger innovation economy. This means not letting your own systems slow you down.
I trust our Canadian CEOs to scale up, and that gives me some optimism. I know that as we enter 2026, they will navigate the uncertainty ahead with discipline, vigilance and leadership.
Let's make sure our governments and financial community help. In the midst of uncertainty, we have the opportunity to turn this year into a year of expansion—if the rest of our economic ecosystem acts with the same determination.
The views and analysis expressed in the article above are those of the author and do not necessarily reflect the position of BetaKit or its editorial team. It has been edited for clarity, length and style.
Artistic image provided by Isaac Sloman via Unsplash.
