This is week 18 NFL a season that always poses challenges for players as motivation and rest factors play a big role in the spreads posted by the market. There are five games this week whose ratings suggest the spreads should be very different from those on offer, and we'll take a look at them all below, along with our betting tips for each.
Sean McVay said after the disappointing loss to Falcons that his starters will play in this game. The market isn't buying it, as the Rams are just 7.5-point home favorites against a Cardinals team that has been one of the worst in football the whole way. I think that's about a nine point difference in terms of each team's ranking, and I don't think the Rams will score less than 14 in a competitive game.
Compounding the problem for the Rams is that they may not even have a No. 5 seed available at kickoff, as it would require Seahawks beating 49ers on Saturday evening. If the 49ers win this game, the Rams will have no reason to play any of their key players since they will remain the No. 6 seed. However I believe Jimmy Garoppolo could lead the offense to points against this sad, broken Arizona defense, so I'll be looking to get the over at a good price.
We know Justin Herbert won't play and it stands to reason Jim Harbaugh will rest other starters as well. That has caused this line to jump about eight points from where I think it should be if the Chargers were treating this like a regular game. It obviously means the world to the Broncos, who earn the No. 1 seed with a win.
Considering the Chargers are still going to roll out a competitive defense, can you really back the Broncos as double-digit favorites? They've beaten two teams by double digits all year, in Week 4 against the Bengals and Week 8 against the Cowboys. Since that second blowout win, they've beaten the Texans by three in the game where C.J. Stroud was injured, the Raiders by three and seven, the Chiefs by three and seven (the second of those against Chris Oladokun instead of Patrick Mahomes), the Commanders with Marcus Mariota in overtime, and the Packers by eight. The Chargers defense could keep this one closer than expected regardless of what's happening on the other side of the ball.
The Packers are expected to rest key players, and they're certainly a team that needs it with Jordan Love, Malik Willis, Josh Jacobs and Christian Watson among those battling injuries. We also don't know who is going to start at quarterback for Minnesota as J.J. McCarthy may not be cleared to return from his hand injury.
The market has this 10 points off where I would have it without the rest concerns, which seems like too much of an adjustment and has me wanting to lean to the Packers. But if we get Clayton Tune against Brian Flores' defense, I'm not sure I want to be in that situation. My lean for this game would be to the Under.
Commanders at Eagles
The Eagles are still deciding as of Tuesday morning whether they are going to rest starters as they have the potential to move up to the No. 2 seed with a win and a Chicago loss, and the Bears are only laying 2.5 against the Lions. The good news is that they're up against a Commanders team that may again be starting Josh Johnson, so there is a decent chance they can rest players and still win the game at home.
The market is caught between whether the Eagles go full rest or not as this line is only 6.5 points away from where I'd have it in a competitive situation, a smaller margin than our other rest situations. To me, that puts the value on the Washington side but I'd be more interested again in the Under.
The Jets have lost four straight games by at least 23 points, so if the Bills were treating this like a competitive game, I think the spread would be around where it was for Jets-Patriots last week at -13.5, even though my ratings are so down on the Jets that I'd make it around 17. The market has the Bills -7, and that may drop if Josh Allen is rested.
The Bills have a lot of issues on both sides of the ball but once the spread gets below 7, I'm still going to back Mitchell Trubisky and Co. to win and cover. That's because I'd probably take any team laying less than seven at home against the Jets right now except maybe the Raiders.
I'll have several spread picks this week at SportsLine, where members are able to get access to all my picks throughout the week as they're made and hopefully take advantage of some good line value.
Let's dive into our betting power ratings and highlight a few more teams of note.
Week 18 power ratings
| LAR | 7.5 | 7.5 | 8 | 7 | 6 |
| SEA | 7 | 7 | 6 | 6.5 | 6 |
| NE | 5 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 4 |
| JAC | 5 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| SF | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 1 |
| PHI | 4.5 | 4.5 | 3 | 2 | 4 |
| BUF | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 4.5 | 4.5 |
| DEN | 4 | 4 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 |
| HOU | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3.5 | 3 | 1.5 |
| CHI | 3.5 | 2.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 2 |
| BAL | 3.5 | 0 | 1.5 | 1 | 2.5 |
| LAC | 2.5 | 4 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 |
| GB | 0 | 1.5 | 3 | 5 | 4.5 |
| DET | -1 | 3 | 3.5 | 4.5 | 3.5 |
| TB | -1 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
| CIN | -1 | -2 | -2.5 | 0 | 0 |
| PIT | -1.5 | 1.5 | 1 | 0 | -1.5 |
| CAR | -1.5 | -1 | -2.5 | -2 | -2.5 |
| DAL | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0 | 2 | 2.5 |
| ATL | -3 | -3 | -3.5 | -3.5 | -3 |
| NO | -3 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -7 |
| IND | -4.5 | -3.5 | -4.5 | -5 | 2.5 |
| MIN | -5.5 | -4.5 | -1 | -3 | -6 |
| TEN | -6 | -5.5 | -8 | -8.5 | -9 |
| CLE | -6 | -6 | -7.5 | -4.5 | -6 |
| NYG | -7.5 | -8 | -5 | -3.5 | -4 |
| MIA | -7.5 | -8.5 | -2.5 | -2 | -3.5 |
| ARI | -8 | -6.5 | -4.5 | -3.5 | -2.5 |
| WAS | -8 | -8 | -4.5 | -4.5 | -2.5 |
| KC | -8 | -7.5 | -2.5 | 2.5 | 5 |
| LV | -10 | -9 | -10 | -7 | -7 |
| NYJ | -10.5 | -10 | -9 | -8.5 | -7.5 |
There isn't a lot of movement to speak of among the playoff teams. I'm leaving the Rams where they were after losing in a flat spot, but I'm dropping the Bills a point with Josh Allen playing at less than 100%, which feels impossible to overcome for a Bills team that isn't that talented across the rest of the roster. I'm bumping the Ravens up quite a bit with the expectation that Lamar Jackson plays in a must-win spot, and that their newfound success rushing the ball will continue heading into the postseason.
I'm out on the Packers defense, which makes them an average team for me heading into the playoffs. I'm putting the Buccaneers, Panthers and Steelers slightly below that, with Pittsburgh likely to be without their best player on both sides of the ball again in a must-win spot.
Full Week 18 projected lines
| CAR | TB | -3 | -1.5 | |
| SEA | SF | +1.5 | PK | Monitor LT health for both |
| NO | ATL | -3 | -2 | |
| CLE | CIN | -7.5 | -6.5 | |
| DAL | NYG | +5 | +5 | |
| GB | MIN | -6.5 | +3.5 | GB to rest key players |
| IND | HOU | -10 | -9 | Leonard to start for IND |
| TEN | JAC | -12.5 | -12 | |
| NYJ | BUF | -7 | -17 | BUF expected to rest starters |
| KC | LV | +5.5 | +0.5 | Big number for Oladokun on road |
| DET | CHI | -2.5 | -7 | Market still high on DET |
| LAC | DEN | -12.5 | -4.5 | LAC to rest key players |
| MIA | NE | -11.5 | -13 | |
| WAS | PHI | -7 | -13.5 | PHI expected to rest starters |
| ARI | LAR | -7.5 | -16.5 | LAR expected to rest key players |
| BAL | PIT | +3.5 | +3.5 |
This is how I would set each game based on my power ratings and home-field advantage data for this week. A large discrepancy between the projected power rating lines and the market lines does not make the game an auto play, but it gives us a basis for potential strong picks pending further analysis.
