The NFL MVP race is over, and two quarterbacks are in the lead for the award. Veteran Matthew Stafford and breakout star Drake Maye have become the current favorites in the field, which also includes Josh Allen, Justin Herbert And Trevor Lawrence.
We asked ESPN Betting reporter Doug Greenberg to tell us how the race for NFL MVP is shaping up at sportsbooks, and ESPN betting analyst Pamela Maldonado to weigh in on the leading candidates and offer her picks.
Doug Greenberg: NFL leader in passing yards and passing touchdowns through 16 weeks. Los Angeles Rams defender Matthew Stafford may be closing in on the first MVP award of his storied career; Entering Saturday Week 17, the 37-year-old has a massive -360 edge to win the NFL MVP award, according to DraftKings.
Stafford entered the campaign at +3500 odds to earn the NFL's highest individual honor and has slowly worked his way up the odds chart, commensurate with his consistently excellent play and the Rams' continued dominance in the NFC. He first became the favorite to win the award in late November and, barring one glitch, has retained that status.
But as most futures bettors already know, award markets are highly subjective and anything can happen down the road, especially with Los Angeles continuing to compete for the NFC West title and several AFC teams vying for the conference's top playoff spot.
Stafford's main contender in the race for the award is New England Patriots defender Drake Mayewhich was a favorite back in early December. May is now +300 on MVP, and bookmakers across the market are praying the young upstart doesn't overtake the grizzled veteran.
At BetMGM, May is the biggest player in the MVP market. It's the same at DraftKings, where sportsbook director Johnny Avello says May is considered a “pretty good loss” and that the book is “rooting for Stafford” or almost any other candidate. Avello says his betting team quickly adjusted to Maye, Stafford and others as needed, but bettors couldn't get enough of the young quarterback and New England's resurgence.
“We couldn't stop the May train, we just couldn't,” Avello told ESPN. “And this is happening not only with May, but with the Patriots as a whole. I mean, they were bet on all year long to win the division, win the Super Bowl, win the conference. We have money for them everywhere.”
While the MVP competition has largely been a two-man race, there are three other players who probably can't be counted out: Buffalo Bills QB Josh Allen (30-1), Los Angeles Chargers, QB Justin Herbert (75-1) and Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence (75-1).
Allen, the reigning MVP, is coming off another strong campaign that will take on added meaning if the Bills are able to overtake the Pats for the AFC East title in the final weeks of the season. Likewise, Herbert's Chargers and Lawrence's Jaguars have outside odds for the conference's top playoff spot, which will help their case given their strong play down the stretch—especially for Lawrence, who has risen from 500-1 to his current position in just three weeks.
“MVP doesn’t remain isolated,” Avello said. “I think it had to be a whole team effort, or at least it was. You just can't have such an amazing year and the team is terrible.”
Stafford or May: How to Bet on the MVP Race
Maldonado: With two weeks left in the regular season, the MVP race has effectively narrowed to Matthew Stafford (-215) and Drake Maye (+175). Both are still fighting for titles in their divisions, have made the playoffs and have legitimate cases, but the gap between them is still real.
Matthew Stafford: Still the standard
Its case has aged well. Los Angeles Rams 11-4 with a +158 point differential and an offense that runs directly through Stafford. He leads the NFL in passing yards (4,179) and passing yards (40) with just five interceptions. This is the only combination that matters when voting for MVP.
When the Rams score, it's because Stafford pushes the ball down the field and finishes. The deviation problems that existed in November have largely disappeared. Stafford is poised, productive and dominant when it matters.
Drake May: A special year with a narrow path
May's season remains impressive, especially in context. Nearly 4,000 passing yards, elite efficiency, top QBR in the league and New England Patriots a team that could finish 14-3, winning the AFC East. In terms of trajectory, this looks like the start of something special in the long term. From an MVP perspective, his resume still doesn't measure up.
What the betting odds say, plus my forecast
If New England finishes 14-3 and the Rams 13-4, voters will notice, but it won't make up the difference in scoring. Stafford still has more passing points than May with two games left. This is a huge divider, and MVP voters rarely ignore such a difference unless the performance gap is huge or the favorite collapses. WITH Atlanta Falcons And Arizona Cardinals on the Rams' deck, it's hard to imagine that happening.
The betting market clearly reflects this gap. Stafford being the favorite signals that voters view him as the rightful leader, while May is rated as a viable contender rather than the true favourite. This split tells us that this race is not neck and neck. Stafford is in control and May needs help and a big finish to turn things around.
Both are still playing meaningful games, but this neutralizes urgency as a differentiator, leaving production, responsibility and influence as the key points. On those fronts, Stafford continues to lead the pack.
Forecast: Stafford holds serve. Even if the Patriots win their division and the Rams don't, that would give May some extra momentum to the narrative, but that alone won't be enough to overcome Stafford's clear advantage in points, volume and offensive impact unless Stafford stumbles.
The odds reflect the reality of this race: A man who has flirted with retirement is on pace to break his passing touchdown record of 41 while having his best season since winning Super Bowl LVI.
