The race for the Senate seat will expand to several more states next year as both parties tout talented candidates and indicate political dynamics are tilting in their favor.
Democrats still face an uphill battle for the four seats they need to win control of the Senate, which will require winning at least two states that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024. But they see a glimmer of hope after victories in the 2025 election and as Trump's approval ratings, especially on his handling of the economy, have fallen.
And Democrats believe they can benefit from issues like high costs and health care, while Republicans continue to fight to expel Trump supporters when he is not on the ballot.
Republicans, however, remain confident that they will retain the Senate and perhaps even increase their majority., given the GOP's recent success in states with the most competitive Senate races next year. And they are optimistic the party can sustain Trump's achievements, suggesting voters will begin to reap the benefits of Trump's sweeping tax cuts and spending legislation ahead of the November 2026 vote.
Both parties will have to contend with potentially divisive and costly primaries that could further unravel the Senate.
At the moment, the battle for the majority in the Senate is unfolding in 10 key races. This is what the map looks like.
Core Four
From the very beginning of the election cycle, it became clear that the battle for the Senate would be concentrated in four critical states: Maine, North Carolina, Michigan and Georgia.
Maine
Sen. Susan Collins is the only Republican senator representing a state that then-Vice President Kamala Harris won in 2024, when the Democrat carried Maine by nearly 7 points. Collins is also the only GOP senator in New England and, according to Republicans, the party's only candidate likely to win the Maine Senate race next year. Collins won re-election in 2020 by 9 points, despite Trump losing the state by the same margin.
Collins has not yet officially launched her campaign, but she said at a recent Punchbowl News event: “I still plan to run for re-election.”
WITHhe won't know her opponent until June, when Democratic Gov. Janet Mills faces military veteran Graham Platner in the Democratic primary.
Mills positioned herself as candidate best able to defeat Collinstouting her clashes with Trump and her reputation as the only Democrat to win a statewide race in Maine in 20 years. The Democratic Senate Campaign Committee created joint fundraising committee with Mills, indicating that party leaders view Mills as the strongest candidate.
Platner, meanwhile, emerged as an anti-establishment candidate and staunch progressive with the support of Sen. Bernie Sanders, I-Vt. He said his campaign was “intensified” recent controversies, including revelations that he had a tattoo resembling a Nazi symbol which he has since covered up, as well as past posts on Reddit that included Lots of controversial and offensive comments. Platner apologized for many of the posts, saying he was “disappointed” after his military service.
North Carolina
Both parties believe they have strong candidates to replace retiring Republican Sen. Thom Tillis, and the race is expected to be one of the most expensive Senate contests next year.
Former Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper is running, and Republicans have selected former Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Whatley. Both candidates are already in general election mode, although Whatley, who has Trump's backing, is still successful. last minute basic assignment from Michelle Morrow, a far-right candidate who lost a bid to become the state's top education official last year.
Trump did well in North Carolina, the only battleground the president has won three times, and he carried him by 3 points last year. But Democrats believe Cooper's popularity and winning record, as well as key issues such as health care, could turn North Carolina's Senate seat blue for the first time since 2008.
Georgia
Jon Ossoff the only Senate Democrat seeking re-election in a state won by Trumpis a top Republican goal next year. The first-term senator raised millions and focused on issues such as health care, the economy and corruption. But Republicans believe they can portray Ossoff as a far-left progressive, pointing to some of his positions on immigration, impeachment and government shutdowns.
Governor Brian Kemp's Republican Party Senate nomination decision sparked a three-way GOP primary between Reps. Buddy Carter and Mike Collins and former University of Tennessee football coach Derek Dooley, who enjoys Kemp's endorsement. Trump winning Georgia by 2 points in 2024 haven't weighed in yet for primary.
Michigan
The resignation of Democratic Sen. Gary Peters has opened up the Senate race in the battleground state. Trump-led Republicans have rallied around former Rep. Mike Rogers, who lost a close Senate race last year despite Trump winning Michigan by 1 point.
The Democratic primary is a three-way race between moderate Rep. Haley Stevens, state Sen. Mallory McMorrow, a self-described “pragmatist,” and progressive physician Abdul El-Sayed. The primary elections have already revealed divisions on the future of the state's manufacturing sector and support for Israel, with a candidate not to be determined until August.
Map expansion
The Senate battle could extend beyond the four key states, thanks in part to candidates who parties believe could tip the results in several states.
Ohio
Democrats scored a major recruiting victory when former Sen. Sherrod Brown decided to challenge Republican Senator Jon Husted, a former lieutenant governor who was appointed to the Senate after J.D. Vance resigned to take over as vice president.
Brown is widely seen as one of the few Democrats who could hold a special election to serve out the final two years of Vance's term in a competitive manner. Last year, the former senator lost re-election by nearly 4 points, while Trump won Ohio by 11 points.
Representatives from both parties say the race is now expected to attract significant resources after ad spending in last year's Senate race reached more than $480 million, according to AdImpact.
New Hampshire
With the resignation of Senator Jeanne Shaheen, both parties viewing New Hampshire asn open, competitive Senate race the following year after Harris won the Granite State by 3 points.
Senate Republican leaders backed former Sen. John Sununu, who lost to Shaheen in 2008. But Sununu is running in the primary against Scott Brown, the former Massachusetts senator and Trump ambassador, and that nomination fight won't be decided until early September.
Rep. Chris Pappas is considered the clear favorite in the Democratic primary, and Democrats believe his deep ties to the state and proven ability to win competitive races puts them in a strong position to hold the seat.
Follow these races
Other potentially competitive Senate races in redder or bluer states depend on the results of contentious primaries — and whether potentially strong candidates actually decide to run.
Texas
Both parties are in contentious Senate primaries early next year, although the Republican primary is expected to take place after March 3 and neither candidate is likely to win a majority of votes given the three-way race between Sen. John Cornyn, state Attorney General Ken Paxton and Rep. Wesley Hunt.
If no one receives a majority of the primary votes, the top two vote-getters will advance to a runoff in May.
All three candidates have emphasized their loyalty to Trump in the primaries, which have already generated millions of dollars in advertising. That spending has largely come from Cornyn allies who believe he has the best chance of winning a state that Trump won by 14 points last year. Trump for now staying away.
The Democratic primary between Rep. Jasmine Crockett and state Rep. James Talarico has become a battle over the best path forward for the party. Crockett took aim squarely at Trump and said she could intensify “a multiracial, multigenerational coalition” including many people who had not previously voted, while Talarico said he can appeal to voters both parties “hunger for sincerity, honesty and compassion.”
Iowa
There is also a contested Democratic primary in Iowa, where Republican Sen. Joni Ernst is retiring. State Representative Josh Turek, a Paralympian, as well as state Senator Zach Wahls and military veteran Nathan Sage are all vying for their party's nomination. Despite recent Republican gains in the state, which Trump won by 13 points in 2024, Democrats believe the race could be competitive as Iowans grapple with health care access issues and Trump's tariff policies.
Republicans, including Trump, quickly rallied around Rep. Ashley Hinson as a candidate to replace Ernst. Hinson, who flipped the Democratic district in 2020, is considered a rising star in the party.
Alaska
Democrats are waiting to see whether former Rep. Mary Peltola, who represented all of Alaska in Congress, will enter the race against GOP Sen. Dan Sullivan. Peltola is also considering a run for governor., after losing re-election last year by 3 points, while Trump won Alaska by 13 points.
Sullivan has made it clear that he recognizes he could have a competitive race, especially as health care becomes a top issue in the midterms. Recently a two-term senator supported the Democrats' proposal extend Affordable Care Act subsidies for three more years.
Minnesota
Republicans are eyeing a top-tier candidate in Minnesota, whom Trump lost to by 4 points last year.
Michelle Tafoya, a longtime NFL reporter turned conservative commentator, is considering a Senate run, according to three sources familiar with her thinking. One source said Tafoya met with the National Republican Senatorial Committee in early December and could make a final decision in January. Former professional basketball player Royce White and retired Navy SEAL Adam Schwarze are also running.
On the Democratic side, Rep. Angie Craig and Lieutenant Governor Peggy Flanagan are vying to replace retiring Sen. Tina Smith, with Flanagan calling himself a progressive candidate and Craig emphasizing his bipartisan appeal.
