Missouri vs. Virginia prediction, odds, time: 2025 Gator Bowl picks from proven model

The SEC and ACC collide in the 2025 Gator Bowl when the Missouri Tigers take on the Virginia Cavaliers on Saturday. UVA (10-3) saw its College Football Playoff trip derailed by a disappointing loss to Duke in the ACC title game. Missouri was a playoff contender after a 6–1 start, but the Tigers lost three of their final five teams—all to teams ranked in the top 10 at the time of the game—to finish the season 8–4 overall. Missouri guard Bo Pribula is heading to the portal and will not play there. This will be the first football game in Missouri since Sports betting in Missouri launched on December 1st and there are a number of Missouri Sportsbook Promotions Available to state residents:

Kickoff at EverBank Stadium is at 7:30 p.m. ET. The Tigers are 4-point favorites in the latest Missouri vs. Virginia odds, with the over/under set at 43.5. Before choosing between Virginia and Missouri, Check out the college football predictions with SportsLine's projection model.

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The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times and is 31-19 in college football's best betting rankings since the start of the 2024 season.

Now the model has set its sights on Virginia vs. Missouri. You can visit SportsLine now to see the selection. Here's the FBS college football chances and trends for Missouri vs. UVA:

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How to choose between Missouri and Virginia

After simulating this matchup 10,000 times, SportsLine's model looks like this: went over the total (43.5 points). The total has fallen since opening at 50.5, and Pribula's absence has impacted that line move.

However, Missouri does have a relatively experienced backup in Matt Zollers. Zollers started three games this season when Pribula was injured and threw three touchdowns to just one interception during that period. The Tigers also have one of the best running backs in the country in Ahmad Hardy, who led the SEC with 1,560 rushing yards this year.

Virginia, meanwhile, averaged 32.6 points per game. Quarterback Chandler Morris completed 64.8 percent of his passes for 2,802 yards and 16 touchdowns. Running back J'Mari Taylor led the ACC with 1,062 yards, so both teams have plenty of ways to move the ball, although Taylor's status is unclear as he considers his future. The SportsLine model scores 51 points in this matchup, with the over hitting nearly 60% of the time.

The model also says that one side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time. You can see the model selection at SportsLine..

So who will win Missouri vs. Virginia and which side of the spread hits more than 60% of the time? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the spread to jump on, all based on an advanced model that's simulated this play 10,000 times.and find out.