Toronto Raptors risk ending 2025 the same way they started it.
Friday's 138-117 loss to the Washington Wizards looked too similar to the games that defined January through April, with the Raptors battling teams at the bottom of the standings every night without several key players. While the answer in 2024-25 was that a short-handed Raptors team wasn't bad enough to beat the really bad teams in the race to the bottom, the answer as of late is that the 2025-26 Raptors aren't good enough to beat those same scum, especially when they've lost multiple bodies.
The key difference, of course, is that the Raptors want to win this year. R.J. Barrett And Jacob Poeltl are legitimately injured, and the hope going into the year was that there would be enough depth – new players, young players given expanded development opportunities last season, a healthy Brandon Ingram – to withstand the easier parts of the schedule at less than 100 percent. The team's forecast for, say, 44 wins (hello) included the belief that they would be strong, strong and hard-working enough to win games like Friday's.
The Raptors aren't there yet.
Of course, this is the NBA and anyone can beat anyone on a given night, but the Wizards' loss caps a sobering month in which they are 4-9 with a net rating in the bottom ten and the worst offense in the league. The defense looked even more shaky on Friday as a young (and in some places old!) Wizards team often won the hustling battle and found the higher pass to scramble and help the defense on key possessions. Once the hole was dug, the league's worst fourth-quarter offense in weeks simply couldn't climb back out.
Things don't get any easier here. A five-game homestand begins Sunday, featuring the Warriors, Magic, Nuggets and Hawks (twice). It's really fun if you've been gifted tickets for the holidays; it's less fun if you're a team trying to right the car while skidding on ice.
Of course, if the Wizards get 20 players, there are no weaknesses in the schedule right now.
Here are some more notes and observations from the game.
• Collin Murray-Boyles missed the game due to illness. It was initially questionable, then listed as available, and then still late.
Scottie Barnes was also questionable with an illness, eventually playing through it, then leaving briefly with left hip soreness before returning. It's a tough day.
• On a positive note, Barrett participated in a full-contact game Thursday, the latest step in his return from a sprained knee. Head coach Darko Rajakovic said Barrett is progressing “very well” and will be treated every day from now on. Sidelined since Nov. 23 – 15 games to date, including a PRP injection in his knee – Barrett's importance, especially on offense, has never been more apparent.
There have been no updates on Poeltl, who is now listed as having a lower back strain, and has not been given the injury management designation he has worn on and off for most of the season.
The Raptors are being cautious about recovering players in back-to-back situations, so it's worth noting that they'll play Sunday, Monday and Wednesday at home (with a mandatory day off on Tuesday) before another full practice day to get things going again.
• Over the course of 82 games, you can often find small silver linings when the best player misses time. This creates opportunities for others, and you can learn more about depth figures at larger positions, identify weaknesses in the rotation before the trade deadline, and keep everyone engaged.
You hope someone shows up in those extended minutes, though, and it's been a real mixed bag for Toronto.
At the top end, Sandro Mamukelashvili has established himself as one of the best low-cost players acquired in free agency in this or any other Raptors era. Great story As a depth player, Mamukelashvili regularly made the most of extra minutes in Poeltl's absence. He made many stunning plays in the first half Friday, hitting late threes, grabbing offensive rebounds or running back for blocks in transition. His double-double of 13 points and 11 rebounds was his first double-double of the season, but through no fault of his own, a rotation in which Mamukelasvili is the true big man will struggle.
Jonathan Mogbo got his opportunity when Poeltl and Murray-Boyles went down. After a long run with the Raptors 905, there was room for optimism that the sophomore could provide a spark. It quickly slipped away like a couple passes through his hands on throws. He nearly finished with 11 trillion with just one interception in 11 minutes.
At the two-guard position, Ja'Kobe Walter had some really good, well-rounded scoring (15 points on 5-of-7 shooting), but he wasn't great defensively. Grady Dick, meanwhile, continues to shoot poorly, and while he's been juicy elsewhere (he had three good assists and could have made a fourth), his secondary skills simply won't matter at this level if he can't hit threes reliably.
Individually, one can understand the ups and downs of a group of young players that continues to include Jamal Sheed (minus 27 in 19 minutes) and Jamison Battle (0 for 3). As a collective, this was not enough to support them. With two starters playing a combined 245 minutes over the past month, one would hope that the decision of “who will lose minutes when X and Y return” wasn't as simple as it seems now.
• The absences also really drive home the truth about this offense: Even with a lot of individual talent, there is very little threat at the rim. The Raptors rank second in the league in assists that lead to shots at the rim (amazing!), but have the lowest unassisted scoring rate by a noticeable margin. Brandon Ingram's mid-range, Immanuel Quickley's shooting, Barnes' ability to go from side to side for bully lefties or high-low passes into the zone are all good things, but Barrett is often their best route to the paint or the free throw line.
This is especially noticeable in transition lineups, as Rajakovic is currently unable to strategically overwhelm as many of the starting XI's core players. Bench lineups really struggle to create an edge, and many of the team's depth players have fairly narrow offensive roles or comfort zones. So Barrett's absence isn't just because Barrett is good, but because the areas he helps the team aren't replicated elsewhere on the roster.
• AJ Lawson was in the NBA clubhouse for more depth after a rough day of travel due to weather that left him with only enough time for a quick pregame warmup. He got the call in the fourth quarter and helped commit an eight-second violation while the game was still close.
The Raptors have been conservative in using their allotted two-way player days, despite Lawson, Chuckie Hepburn and Elijah Martin starting their G League seasons well. Because the Raptors only have 14 NBA contracts, the number of games they can play with two-way players is currently limited to 90 rather than 50 per player. That could change after the Feb. 5 trade deadline, when the final roster spot could be filled or a two-way conversion depending on how the trade season goes.
(I believe Lawson has seven games, Hepburn four, and Martin three. These are just my numbers as they are not officially listed anywhere.)
• Raptors 905 return to action Saturday in Mississauga. In case you missed it, they finished the Tip Off Tournament portion of their schedule with a perfect 14-0 record, then won two G League Showcase games and finally lost in the Showcase Cup finals. Like the NBA Cup, the championship game doesn't actually count in the stats or standings, so technically the 905 players are still undefeated, although the standings reset after 14 games and they're now 2-0 again. (Yes, it's a little weird. Yes, we'll make it a formality to keep getting “undefeated” tweets.)
• Keeshawn George delighted Canadian basketball fans in the loss, scoring 23 points on 9-for-13 shooting, adding six rebounds and three assists. He's having a great sophomore season and should be on the Most Improved Player ballot.
And fellow Region native Will Riley has been playing more minutes lately, including 16 minutes with eight points and a pair of assists here.
• At the other end of the age spectrum, CJ McCollum and Khris Middleton played well, with McCollum especially strong in the second quarter. While it's not easy to move expiring $30 million contracts for non-stars in the CBA era, they should be of interest to non-Apron contenders if they find themselves on the buyout market after the deadline.
Marvin Bagley should also generate some interest as a minimum-salary bench player.
• It was disappointing to see the Wizards get away with this game with a very young, bench-only roster. Only Brooklyn played with zero starting lineups more often, as this can either be the core of a rebuilding team (roster optimization isn't as important) or a very deep team (Bench Mob Raptors). It's against Washington must be when a team like the Raptors makes a strong push.
Speaking of depth and balance, the Wizards' first five baskets of the game came from five different players. We share stones.
• I hope you all had a happy Christmas if you celebrate one, and a good holiday anyway. By the way, the Raptors Show returns on Monday, so lock up.
