Trecord winds of 252 mph were recorded during Hurricane Melissa, which devastated the Caribbean islands in late October. five times more probably due to the climate crisis. Hot weather caused by forest fires in Spain and Portugal the likelihood was 40 times higher in summer, and in June heat in England the probability was 100 times higher.
The Science of Attribution made one thing clear: global warming is behind today's extreme weather. It was clear that greenhouse gas emissions were warming the planet. This warming can now be shown to be leading to record heat waves and increasingly severe storms.
Climate change adaptation experts are constantly thinking about what we can do to minimize or at least reduce the risks to life from such events, as well as from more gradual changes. The alarming consensus is that we are not doing enough. The results pay with lives: floods and cyclones around the world. Thailand, Sri Lanka and Indonesia Hundreds of people died at the end of November.
The president of Cop30 in Brazil, Andre Corrêa do Lago, called for the UN climate change conference to be an “adaptation cop”. But the governments of the most vulnerable countries returned home from Belem dissatisfied with the result that led to Projected annual adaptation budget to triple to $120 billionbut given that the deadline has been moved to 2035 and no clear mechanism make rich countries pay.
Even this amount does not correspond $300 billion for climate finance this was generally agreed upon at COP29 in 2024. The risk is that without international support, heavily indebted countries such as Jamaica will be trapped, and resources that should be devoted to green energy and securing the future will instead be spent on disaster management.
But the need to prepare is not limited to low-lying countries and those hit hardest by extreme heat and severe storms. This imbalance in climate programs can be seen throughout the world. Last month, a group of British scientists organized what they called “national emergency briefing” in London to warn people about the scale of the threat of the climate crisis – and the alarming lack of preparedness.
Everyday injustice
In a global context, the adaptation policy is clear. Poor countries, including small island states whose existence is threatened by rising sea levels, have consistently argued that rich countries, whose historical and current emissions are responsible for a warming climate, should support them in adapting to the crisis and transitioning away from fossil fuels. Right-wing, nationalist governments in the West are extremely hostile to this idea – and to aid costs more broadly – even if their loudest objections concern the fossil fuel phase-out and net zero.
But in rich countries, adaptation can look more like a technocratic task than a political one. Policies on flood risk or increasing resilience to high temperatures are not usually a top priority for voters – unless there is a natural disaster such as the flooding in eastern Spain, which led to resignation of Carlos Mason, President of Valenciain November. While the woefully mismanaged water industry is a hot-button political issue in England and Wales, serious questions about natural resources and infrastructure sustainability remain outside of daily discussion, with responsibility delegated to independent agencies and rarely raised by party leaders.
A recent report The UK's Glacier Trust and the Climate Majority Project said charities and politicians should aim to change this and promote “action-oriented public understanding of climate risks”. Everyone must recognize that adaptation cannot simply be left to market forces, because the economics of climate risk forces private finance to retreat as the danger grows.
The long-term, low-return investments needed to protect communities from floods, fires and heat are unattractive to private lenders. It is the government that should build dams or insure subsistence farmers when the risk becomes too great. Leah Aronowsky, a science historian at Columbia University, says climate risk is a daily injustice compounded. right to argue that how we adapt is a political battle.
What should adaptation look like?
One reason adaptation has received so little attention is the obvious need to reduce emissions. In the context of warnings that the Paris Agreement target is 1.5°C may go out of reachMitigation—reducing or eliminating emissions—is a top priority.
Discussing preparations for global warming can seem like a red herring or even an admission of defeat. But while it makes sense for climate campaigners to maintain as much pressure as possible to reduce emissions, there must be opportunities to prepare for a hotter, more unstable climate. Under the UK Climate Change Act, the government is legally required to do this and regularly review progress on preparations.
The UK Climate Change Committee will soon outline what it really is “well adapted“This is what the country needs to look like: flood defenses that can withstand future hurricanes, transport links built for a harsher climate, food and supply chains resilient to global shocks, and coastal communities protected rather than abandoned. Experts also want to ensure that the 1.5 million homes the government has pledged to build in England alone are fit for the future. In an era of polarized attacks on net zero, projects like these could help restore shared faith in responsible stewardship of the earth.
For the rich world, adaptation is reasonable. For the poor world it is survival. Latest UN information report is clear: by 2035, developing countries will need more than $310 billion annually, but in 2023 they will receive only $26 billion. floods in asia and increasing drought in Africa this year highlight the growing need to accelerate adaptation to climate change.
According to the Paris Agreement, nationally determined contributions (NDC) – countries' plans to address global warming – are intended to cover both emissions reduction and adaptation to climate impacts.
But ultimately, NDCs focus primarily on reducing greenhouse gas emissions and creating decarbonization pathways. This needs to change. National adaptation planswhich came out of Cop16 needs to be brought to the fore. They put device in the spotlight – and demand real plans, real finances, real justice. They ask the question that really matters now: How will vulnerable countries survive global warming, which cannot be stopped by emissions cuts alone?
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